tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1567748402610124427..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): More Super Bowl AnalysisUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46187745211449333792012-02-09T23:11:09.474-05:002012-02-09T23:11:09.474-05:00A defensive penalty in the final minute is dumb an...A defensive penalty in the final minute is dumb and there is no strategic advantage to it. It stops the clock even if declined. Once Brady saw the flag, the play should have been to throw to the middle of the field, since declined penalty operates as a timeout, rather than a long developing high risk play like that downfield throw.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44817617339061715632012-02-09T20:22:46.750-05:002012-02-09T20:22:46.750-05:00Probably, the Giants would have won either way. E...Probably, the Giants would have won either way. Even the wrong decision would have lead to a high WP in favor or NYG.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36766541574103362442012-02-09T13:44:42.752-05:002012-02-09T13:44:42.752-05:00That would probably be an "unfair act" a...That would probably be an "unfair act" and they can award whatever they please. The refs are like the Supreme Court, they can technically rule whatever on a judgment call but tradition tends to keep them in line. One rare case where they deviated on purpose was that controversial Pitt-Miami game in 2010 where the rules said it was a TD, they said no TD and Pitt ball and common sense said no TD and Miami ball.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10230344931186858123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91765949303347539272012-02-09T10:56:11.108-05:002012-02-09T10:56:11.108-05:00Re: the 12th man
The remedy against the intention...Re: the 12th man<br /><br />The remedy against the intentional 12 man defense is to spike the ball - no time lost, no down lost and one gets the yards. Of course that means that in addition to everything else the QB must think about, he has to count men.<br /><br />Re: other intentional penalties.<br /><br />Let's say that Team A is on defense. There's a blown coverage leaving the opposing WR 20 yards open down the sideline when Team A has its bench. A man comes off Team A's bench to swat the ball away. What would be the penalty? 5 yards for too many men? Or could the officials award the TD?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85335509614910786332012-02-08T06:57:42.872-05:002012-02-08T06:57:42.872-05:00Both teams were lucky to play in the Super Bowl. ...Both teams were lucky to play in the Super Bowl. In a 1 and done tournament, there is a huge amount of luck involved.<br /><br />P.S. I don't see how, "Belichick’s decision to allow the touchdown be considered gutsier than Holmgren’s?" <br />Belichick had less time. He had no other choice. His chances of winning went from 1% to 11%. <br /><br />Actually, the fact that he didn't do it a play before that, on first down, cost him a timeout, and probably a 4th championship.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48424939184954928612012-02-07T15:11:30.463-05:002012-02-07T15:11:30.463-05:00Funny how offended people get when you use the wor...Funny how offended people get when you use the word "lucky" to describe a team winning. People are far less offended if you state that a team was "fortunate" to win, although they usually carry the same meaning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61283327524826591382012-02-07T13:59:09.370-05:002012-02-07T13:59:09.370-05:00They were lucky.
And good: In case you missed it,...They were lucky.<br /><br />And good: In case you missed it, I had the Giants as slight favorites to win.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11094708533354286402012-02-07T13:13:54.020-05:002012-02-07T13:13:54.020-05:00Brian,
Just read your comment about the Giants tha...Brian,<br />Just read your comment about the Giants that they were lucky to get to the super bowl. Wel I guess I'd rather be lucky than good!! Also I guess how the Giants doesn't come into play. The best team won!! So much for you stats and the soft schedule the Pats played this year.<br /><br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19031549149916135452012-02-07T13:10:10.367-05:002012-02-07T13:10:10.367-05:00I agree with Matt W. to a certain extent. It'...I agree with Matt W. to a certain extent. It's a similar situation when defending 2 pt attempts: there is little downside to committing pass interference if that's what it takes to stop the conversion. The defense may not intentionally cheat, but they may play a lot more recklessly late on the goal line with the lead.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02178230449052059046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63977098429806986642012-02-07T12:58:01.041-05:002012-02-07T12:58:01.041-05:00"A 9 point lead doesn't do anything, exce..."A 9 point lead doesn't do anything, except making it a two possision game"<br /><br />That's a huge "except" there.Whispershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03800223850991540829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2842691342368998782012-02-07T12:30:22.065-05:002012-02-07T12:30:22.065-05:00I wishI wishPhil Zimmermannnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62249084157662434162012-02-07T12:13:14.411-05:002012-02-07T12:13:14.411-05:00Snowbody-I've done preliminary work on that, b...Snowbody-I've done preliminary work on that, but it's extremely complex to do it 'head-on'. There are 16 possible TO combinations (0..3)^2. I have the data and know the general WP effects of TOs. But when you slice things up into distinct situational groups (time, score, field position, etc.) the data gets really thin, even with a decade or more of games.<br /><br />Phil-Fair request. Are you the PZ of PGP fame?Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63025898121621337752012-02-07T11:59:05.749-05:002012-02-07T11:59:05.749-05:00its your site, you can do what you want, but can y...its your site, you can do what you want, but can you run the numbers on the probabilities behind the 2 point conversion?<br /><br />As I see it, it would be:<br /><br />probability of making the 2 + probability of Pats missing a 2 point conversion + probability of winning game in OT<br /><br />vs<br /><br />probability of KO being returned for TD + probability being able to go the other way and get a FG with 1 TO and about 50 secs or so<br /><br />seems like we could put numbers on all those probabilities and calculate, (you seem to be able to do that all the time)<br /><br />-just a lowly peon who enjoys your workPhil Zimmermannnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30096935006779087422012-02-07T11:17:56.308-05:002012-02-07T11:17:56.308-05:00Brian -- any chance of adding "timeouts remai...Brian -- any chance of adding "timeouts remaining" to the WP calculator for the 2012 season?<br /><br />A simple way to do it would be to split the games up into 9 categories depending on how many timeouts each team had.Snowbodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01745649804125711486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80511153638226964252012-02-07T10:56:45.113-05:002012-02-07T10:56:45.113-05:00Wall Street Journal also commented about the end-o...Wall Street Journal also commented about the end-of-game, quoting Brian's competitor.<br />http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204369404577207402452810134.html?mod=WSJ_NY_MIDDLETopStoriesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-733781888747209842012-02-07T10:39:44.370-05:002012-02-07T10:39:44.370-05:00That's the most asinine comment of the day.
...That's the most asinine comment of the day. <br /><br />First of all, that's a false statement. My original draft contained references to both the Packers' SB play and their similar situation against CHI last year. They were both removed for brevity, one by me and one by the editor. Deadspin specifically asked for "a couple of paragraphs" and my post was already too long.<br /><br />Second, my job title is not "football historian." My job title is "I get to write whatever the hell I like, and you get to read it for free if you want."<br /><br />I usually let anonymous cowards take swipes, but I will always draw the line at cheap shots at my character. This isn't that kind of site. You know where you can go shove your take on my credibility.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3465641895492111332012-02-07T09:38:43.356-05:002012-02-07T09:38:43.356-05:00Just admit that you completely forgot about Green ...Just admit that you completely forgot about Green Bay giving up the touchdown in their Superbowl win against the Broncos. This follow-up defense of your first article is weak sauce -- didn't you say that the Giants were 96% likely to succeed if they kicked a field goal?<br /><br />You've lost quite a bit of credibility with this latest post, as far as I'm concerned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36708465087509322532012-02-07T06:45:30.436-05:002012-02-07T06:45:30.436-05:00I think the best strategy would be to take a knee ...I think the best strategy would be to take a knee at a point as close to goal line as possible and then try for a touchdown on 3rd down and if you get stopped then do the field goalwolfiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00718344625530860593noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48150211848754382922012-02-07T05:06:27.590-05:002012-02-07T05:06:27.590-05:00Which also has the advantage of minimising any cha...Which also has the advantage of minimising any chance of a shove attack by the defense.<br /><br />NOw that would be a funny picture, aq Rugby like huddle, withe the defense trying to shove the player forward and the offense fight back,and the runner not able to bringt down his knee because he is just stuck in there.Kulkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17657346387956365135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6885352929338075892012-02-07T00:28:14.616-05:002012-02-07T00:28:14.616-05:00So after the Bradshaw blunder, should we now tell ...So after the Bradshaw blunder, should we now tell runners to take a knee at the two yard line to run out the clock?Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27733190276317348602012-02-06T22:26:36.587-05:002012-02-06T22:26:36.587-05:00Spybloom: If there are *ten* seconds left with the...Spybloom: If there are *ten* seconds left with the ball at the half-yard line, that's almost assuredly *two* plays, since the offense is certainly going to do something quick, like a fade pass to the corner.Matt W.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75607133402350444842012-02-06T22:26:11.068-05:002012-02-06T22:26:11.068-05:00First of all, it's certainly not "a lot&q...First of all, it's certainly not "a lot" of hand waving. You make a worthy point but an instantaneous TD when a team is in full prevent is still going to less common than a missed XP.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47530196532198437372012-02-06T21:10:05.321-05:002012-02-06T21:10:05.321-05:00"It was smart. There was only time for a maxi..."It was smart. There was only time for a maximum of one more score." I still think this analysis includes a lot of hand-waving. It's not possible to have two lead changes in the final minute of the game? Instead we're going to place our faith in the much more common missed extra point? How soon have we forgotten this, not quite the same situation, but perhaps even more unbelievable: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=20120114025Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27571053611849336192012-02-06T20:00:21.322-05:002012-02-06T20:00:21.322-05:00Matt W.: The game can't end on a defensive pen...Matt W.: The game can't end on a defensive penalty, however. In your situation on the half yard line all it would accomplish for the defense is delay the (possible) score and make them more tired by having to run a play over and over, even if it doesn't count. I see what you're saying, though, in relation to the play last night; taking an intentional penalty with the end zone 80ish yards away and little time. Strategic, but not very sportsmanlike ever something the nfl should think about.spybloomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77635241209747981362012-02-06T19:00:40.742-05:002012-02-06T19:00:40.742-05:00I've often thought it's a big hole in the ...I've often thought it's a big hole in the rules that a defensive team can commit a penalty late in the game with little downside. Say a trailing team has second and goal from the other team's half-yard line with 10 seconds in the game. In this situation, there is essentially no harm for the defense in committing any kind of penalty to prevent a score. If it's a pass, the defense can hold, interfere, attack the receivers with nunchuks, it doesn't matter. As long as there's no TD and 5 or 6 seconds wind off the clock, there's no harm in getting a penalty. They ought to look into adding the time back on the clock for situations like this. In the Giants' case, they could have sent 15 men out on defense, as long as they're not in the huddle, as that would result in a whistle before the play. Even if they make an Int. that's called back, it would wind even more time off the clock.Matt W.noreply@blogger.com