tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post176966850755611196..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): PIT Should Not Have Scored the TDUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79579454986293964202013-12-26T09:03:38.676-05:002013-12-26T09:03:38.676-05:00Belichick also once challenged a ruling that Buffa...Belichick also once challenged a ruling that Buffalo had NOT scored a TD because he wanted the ball back sooner.<br /><br />As Brian says some coaches seem to get thisAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11049171158386486800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17643450452006756582013-12-24T16:23:02.948-05:002013-12-24T16:23:02.948-05:00Mr McDermott, correct. Although one should also ...Mr McDermott, correct. Although one should also note that the GIants also knew that they should not score the TD, and even had the RB try to stop at the one yard line (but he accidentally teetered in for the TD).<br /><br />Although, I must admit if I am the player I am taking the "game winning superbowl touchdown" and ignoring the estimated few percent win probability increase by kneeling. Your photo on the cover of SI sounds a lot better than a footnote in a paper in IEEE Transactions on Sports. Statistics. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12001685166111443602013-12-24T07:57:28.226-05:002013-12-24T07:57:28.226-05:00Hi Brian,
If Tomlin really did the math and felt t...Hi Brian,<br />If Tomlin really did the math and felt the conditions were so horrific for kicking the Field Goal as time expired that it was better to score the TD, why did he not go for 2 after the TD? Did the conditions all of a sudden improve? Also wouldn't he have assumed if Greenbay did score a TD they would go for 2 as well since conditions were so bad?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05355081898440857206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58732679147957288602013-12-23T19:54:45.427-05:002013-12-23T19:54:45.427-05:00GB did it in Super Bowl 32 as well.GB did it in Super Bowl 32 as well.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73021664000609574902013-12-23T19:04:03.193-05:002013-12-23T19:04:03.193-05:00I'm sure anyone who reads this website knows t...I'm sure anyone who reads this website knows this, but since it hasn't been brought up yet: Patriots coach Bill Belichick allowed the Giants to score at the end of the 2011 Super Bowl, knowing that his best shot at winning the game was giving Brady and the offense the ball back with enough time to score a TD. <br />I'm sure this example is detailed somewhere on the web, and probably somewhere on this site.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03108711283276399018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19254704703260537712013-12-23T12:57:11.398-05:002013-12-23T12:57:11.398-05:00In the weather conditions described, I am not sure...In the weather conditions described, I am not sure why Tomlin's decision is is indefensible. The difference under normal conditions is the difference between 1 % and 9% chance of losing for the Steelers. With the weather conditions, that gap probably closes albeit not entirely. Considering that the stats are not perfectly applicable, I don't think this gap is that significant. I would have preferred the kick route.<br /><br />Regardless, I am curious as to what the expected win percentage would be to kneel on 2nd and try to score a TD with about 45 seconds left.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46890553942263468092013-12-23T12:43:59.737-05:002013-12-23T12:43:59.737-05:00The intent is irrelevant. The ONLY question is whe...The intent is irrelevant. The ONLY question is whether a team is better off down by 7 with 1:30 to play or down 3 with 0:00 to play.<br /><br />We don't narrow down sample sizes based on whether the TD came as a run or pass, or as a deep bomb or QB sneak. Why would we want to narrow the relevant sample based on intent? In short, it don't matter how you got there.<br /><br />I can tell you first hand that plenty of coaches already understand this. Tomlin and McCarthy just aren't in that group (yet).Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28409586580054877522013-12-23T11:39:37.255-05:002013-12-23T11:39:37.255-05:00I can understand wanting to kick a FG. As a PIT fa...I can understand wanting to kick a FG. As a PIT fan I wanted bell to run it and grind the clock down. But if im not mistaken was it bell that fumbled on the 3 yard line? Setting up GB to tie the game. And lets not forget that the chances of an accurate kick in "the frozen tundra" at least seemingly go way up. Weve seen games over the past few weeks where cold weather seemed to nearly cripple special teams. So to say that botching the field goal is similar to a broken neck is a stretch. It wasn't the smartest decision but in the end the defense did what they needed to do, along with critical mistakes committed by the pack. Maybe he figured they would keep messing up as they had done in crucial situations at least 3 times in the second half leading to PIT scoring. Textbook decision? No. But there are way more variables that come into play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52139920251265212532013-12-23T11:33:52.996-05:002013-12-23T11:33:52.996-05:00It is a small sample size issue because, for whate...It is a small sample size issue because, for whatever reason, most teams are too stupid to take a knee. If you're going to use a results-oriented question like that, I'll put it back on you: has anyone ever taken a knee and gone on to lose the game? (This answer is no, and they've actually never even gone to overtime.)<br /><br />What irks me most about teams who score the TD on purpose is the lack of logic involved. This isn't some complex issue with 1000 possible outcomes (like going for a 4th and 2 from midfield in the 2nd quarter); this is as cut-and-dry as it gets. The worst part is that every third grader who's ever run into this decision in a game of Madden understands you should allow a TD...yet coaches who've spent 60 years involved with football can't seem to grasp such a simple concept. It's downright embarrassing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88037034255067165252013-12-23T11:04:22.459-05:002013-12-23T11:04:22.459-05:00Brian,
I would have ordered the kneel down and ...Brian, <br /><br />I would have ordered the kneel down and FG. But the question IS: has anyone ever won after intentionally allowing the TD? Small sample size disclaimer and all that, but if the probably of a win is a function of intent then the whole leadership / momentum discussion plays into the analysis. JMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-8926668178663589402013-12-23T10:57:27.659-05:002013-12-23T10:57:27.659-05:00The response to this on Twitter and elsewhere (tho...The response to this on Twitter and elsewhere (those defending Tomlin) is more of a sign of a bad grasp of probability among the general public.<br /><br />Everything has a chance of happening, but not everything has the same chance of happening. That's the problem. Yes, the FG could have been botched. Yeah, and on any given play, a player could break his neck and become paralyzed on the next play too. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65190595696456734232013-12-23T07:28:06.734-05:002013-12-23T07:28:06.734-05:00The question isn't whether a team has won afte...The question isn't whether a team has won after <i>intentionally</i> allowing a TD with 1:30 to play. The question is whether a team has won after allowing a TD with 1:30 to play <i>regardless</i> of intention. And how likely is that compared to winning when down by 3 with 1 second on the clock?<br /><br />I get the cultural thing, especially as a military guy. But had PIT lost, and they came very close to doing so, what would Tomlin's tough guy players be saying about taking the FG?Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2612394715326729622013-12-23T06:31:39.822-05:002013-12-23T06:31:39.822-05:00I get the analysis. I read the prior, linked arti...I get the analysis. I read the prior, linked articles yet I am bothered.<br /><br />First, an unanswered question from the prior, linked article: Has a team ever won a game by allowing a TD? If it was answered, I missed it.<br /><br />Second, it seems there is parallel between allowing a score and resting starters after securing a playoff seed. Almost like " we won't perform our best now so we might perform better later." The numbers support those decisions, but I wonder if it is possible to build a high functioning team if you don't always demand the best. Again, I get that "you have to be smart." <br /><br />There is a team cultural aspect to this. Tomlin dismissed the question of two kneel-cowns then field goal when asked saying he has no problem with putting his defense on the field to bring home the win. Almost didn't work out. But it could be part of why a team that started 0-4 is still playing like it has a shot at the post season.JMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50321488516953436452013-12-23T00:07:01.225-05:002013-12-23T00:07:01.225-05:00I was raging when this happened, it seemed so obvi...I was raging when this happened, it seemed so obvious to me to run the clock down and kick a field goal. The problem is that both methods offer a high chance of winning, so the "best" chance doesn't get strongly considered if it's unconventional. This is a trend I see a lot in sports. <br /><br />It really wouldn't surprise me if Tomlin never even thought about kneeling a couple times and then kicking to win. The NFL truly does exist in a deeply sub-optimal state.Brandon Repperthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12521154765858355700noreply@blogger.com