tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1918823651052684012..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Cardinals Don't Believe Closer is BetterUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48859791936547793262012-10-19T19:47:18.692-04:002012-10-19T19:47:18.692-04:00Keith, by the way, it surprises me that Suisham ha...Keith, by the way, it surprises me that Suisham has a 48% chance of making a 54 yard field goal. how do you arrive at that by looking at all kicks 50 yards and more? if that is the case, I would highly suspect that perhaps 50-54 has a much better chance of being successful than 54 and up.<br />Wizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56218983470404520852012-10-15T21:05:38.536-04:002012-10-15T21:05:38.536-04:00Numbers are almost dead even for the final PIT fie...Numbers are almost dead even for the final PIT field goal. 42% conversion on 4th-and-7, 48% chance of making the 54-yard field goal. Expected Win Probabilities are 60% for go-for-it, 61% for field goal, 49% for punt. Numbers are close enough that either going for it or kicking the field goal are reasonable options.<br /><br />The interesting thing is, they had the same three options 8 minutes earlier while up 20-16. They kicked and made the field goal and numbers are expectation are 75% go for it, 75% field goal, and 76% for punt. But, if you don't take the score into account, going for it is the better option in terms of raw expected points (+0.7 go for it, +0.54 field goal, +0.16 punt)Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90279502840396832592012-10-15T20:42:55.135-04:002012-10-15T20:42:55.135-04:00To anonymous about the 0%. you dont think the Pat...To anonymous about the 0%. you dont think the Patriots go for that there? Wizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13847008345053817502012-10-15T20:40:17.932-04:002012-10-15T20:40:17.932-04:00Regarding Tomlins call, I am from Pittsburgh and t...Regarding Tomlins call, I am from Pittsburgh and the discussion was pretty split between going for it and punting. I think the field option should be the last choice. any numbers on this, Keith?.. seeing that there were 3 'reasonable' choices?<br />thanks Wizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-638874917003252442012-10-15T17:11:41.319-04:002012-10-15T17:11:41.319-04:00Keith: not only is that true, but there's also...Keith: not only is that true, but there's also a chance you could throw a quick slant/out that only lasts four seconds. Obviously, you run the risk of the home clock operator running all five off anyway, but there's a non-zero chance you could get two attempts out of it.<br /><br />Of course, I think we all know there was a 0% chance of any NFL coach making a "ballsy" call like that. I'm sure Jaworski would have gone to his standard ironic statement of, "In that situation, you play the numbers and kick the field goal."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61708758518915542402012-10-15T12:22:34.695-04:002012-10-15T12:22:34.695-04:00Don't like to talk about the Lions game cause ...Don't like to talk about the Lions game cause I'm an Eagles fan, but they had 0:05 left with 3rd-and-1 on the 1. So, if we treat that like it's their last play (so like a 4th down), numbers say to go for it, like you said. Success rate is 68% on 4th-and-1, gives E[WP] = 67%. WP of a made field goal (assume 100% conversion) is only 48%. So, as long as you think you can convert/score a TD over 48% of the time, correct decision is to go for the win.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27928694163846816492012-10-15T11:03:49.126-04:002012-10-15T11:03:49.126-04:00I watching Redzone so I didn't pay 100% to the...I watching Redzone so I didn't pay 100% to the circumstances but I could have sworn the Lions kicked a FG to tie the game with 1 second left on the 1 yard line rather than go for it and the win. Fortunately for them, they won the game. But I'm pretty sure that is a bad decision. Can you run the numbers on that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59019817691347984272012-10-15T09:32:15.018-04:002012-10-15T09:32:15.018-04:00I'm not convinced the Cardinal's offense w...I'm not convinced the Cardinal's offense would convert 4th and 10 more often than Feeley can bang home a 61 yarder. I don't see this as nearly as big a mistake as Tomlin's call on Thursday night although "the numbers" surely disagree.nottomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03991575500138449082noreply@blogger.com