tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2656415894898529942..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Saban's Hyperbola: Analyzing Alabama's Long FG AttemptUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85863096113665743372013-12-21T20:20:23.411-05:002013-12-21T20:20:23.411-05:00Am I the only one who keeps reading the first word...Am I the only one who keeps reading the first word of the title as "Satan"?<br /><br />(This isn't even me dissing on the Alabama coach. "Satan's hyperbola" just SOUNDS like a concept a mathematician would come up with.)Paul Thomasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19260455475553535672013-12-16T14:58:50.032-05:002013-12-16T14:58:50.032-05:00Since the chance of a return cannot be less than -...Since the chance of a return cannot be less than -17.7, FG is always a bad decision in that example.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37257580329357207632013-12-09T15:04:41.179-05:002013-12-09T15:04:41.179-05:00Thanks for this. I'm curious what to make of t...Thanks for this. I'm curious what to make of the negative values. For example, using the formula above, if the chances of making the field goal was 4%, it would be smart to kick the field goal if the chance of a return, given a miss, was less than -17.7 percent. What should we make of that? What does that mean?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85798833071739021272013-12-08T00:57:22.592-05:002013-12-08T00:57:22.592-05:00Found it: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/...Found it: <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/its-blocked.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/its-blocked.html</a>Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50613795019172317542013-12-07T22:29:58.923-05:002013-12-07T22:29:58.923-05:00Yes. I did a post on block rate by dist a couple y...Yes. I did a post on block rate by dist a couple years back.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60795798754609105522013-12-07T19:51:36.912-05:002013-12-07T19:51:36.912-05:00Is there data on how often field goals get blocked...Is there data on how often field goals get blocked according to distance? I have read that's a big concern with the longer fg tries and if so the block plus chance of Td return should be considered Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15524104348233523812013-12-07T18:28:52.110-05:002013-12-07T18:28:52.110-05:00I think the greatest probability on the hail Mary ...I think the greatest probability on the hail Mary isn't the interception return for a TD but the Sack/FF/Recover/Return, think Kurt Warner in the Super Bowl against the Steelers, but with the game tied. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37233677270031404502013-12-07T10:00:26.900-05:002013-12-07T10:00:26.900-05:00I don't know, I think the probability of a ret...I don't know, I think the probability of a return man outrunning a bunch of fat guys is a lot, lot higher than 4%.<br /><br />A solid lower bound would be the probability that a non-fair caught punt would be returned for a touchdown. Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64861497505850219182013-12-07T00:06:56.045-05:002013-12-07T00:06:56.045-05:00Steve, you are making the assumption that the miss...Steve, you are making the assumption that the missed field goal is returnable. If you use 15% as a baseline you would have figure out the probability of the fg failing short enough to return vs missing right, left or just under but still out of reach. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23269363894327314282013-12-06T23:40:10.480-05:002013-12-06T23:40:10.480-05:00I think the return for tocuhdown probability is pr...I think the return for tocuhdown probability is probably somewhere between close to or above the INT returned for a TD rate, which is like 15% (right?). Offenses are terrible at making a tackle in the middle of chaos and the failed Fg returner gets a nice head of steam and time to find a running lane unlike in most INT cases.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10230344931186858123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83239439005103721852013-12-06T22:20:13.326-05:002013-12-06T22:20:13.326-05:00Nice piggyback. What's the chance of a TD retu...Nice piggyback. What's the chance of a TD return on a Hail Mary, 1 in 1,000? --> Negligible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16745984460141669432013-12-06T20:20:04.202-05:002013-12-06T20:20:04.202-05:00Piggybacking on Keith's comment, another poten...Piggybacking on Keith's comment, another potential bad outcome from a hail mary attempt would be a fumble returned for a TD. Granted Auburn would have been in their Hail Mary/prevent defense and probably only rushing 3 guys, but the need for the QB to wait for his receivers to get downfield might increase the risk of a sack/fumble and return for a TD if they do manage to get pressure.<br /><br />Again not a high-probability event, but not necessarily negligible compared to the probability of a FG returned for a TD.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28608138045964564982013-12-06T19:11:28.061-05:002013-12-06T19:11:28.061-05:00Brian, do you have any data on FG missed returns i...Brian, do you have any data on FG missed returns in the NFL? How often are long FG's caught and brought out of the endzone? <br /><br />ffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15519715559791228117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74928094846751249352013-12-06T18:09:44.480-05:002013-12-06T18:09:44.480-05:00Great stuff. Obviously don't have the data, bu...Great stuff. Obviously don't have the data, but I would think the return probability is still below 6% -- although being woefully unprepared makes that more questionable.<br /><br />I also don't think you can dismiss hail mary interceptions for a touchdown in this analysis. Granted, it is a very low probability event (more so than the FG return), but both are similarly low probability events.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.com