tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2686772801728562537..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): NFL Payroll and WinsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69632854699926780812010-09-02T12:50:59.305-04:002010-09-02T12:50:59.305-04:00one thing you may want to do is adjusted for sched...one thing you may want to do is adjusted for schedule. Since schedule difficulty varies year to year there might be a higher correlation with schedule-adjsuted wins than winsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58509210696258554542010-01-25T19:41:30.867-05:002010-01-25T19:41:30.867-05:00You need create an average of the past 10 years be...You need create an average of the past 10 years before running your regression. NFL team payrolls have large variance due to major signing bonuses being added to one year. That why teams can varry 30 million from one year to the next. <br /><br />The NBA is easier for this analysis. I think team payroll makes much more of a differnce in that league. One great player has more of an impact in basekball.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70701926207146876092009-11-16T12:26:29.242-05:002009-11-16T12:26:29.242-05:00One thing to consider is that if a team has better...One thing to consider is that if a team has better players then the team needs to pay them more. A great example is with the Colts - you need to pay more for Peyton Manning but he will give your team more wins. Jamarcus Russell gets paid more than Peyton Manning this year but Peyton is the far better QB. The underlining assumption of this regression is the teams will pay the right "market value" for each player.<br /><br />A better way to see the salary effect is to control for the team level of talent and then run the regression. Defining the team talent is the hard aspect. Something like number of pro bowl players or even if you just control for the QB with the season QB rating.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90627992640964001982009-04-28T23:28:00.000-04:002009-04-28T23:28:00.000-04:00Not sure. I would guess it's just that overall tot...Not sure. I would guess it's just that overall total salary is what matters. Salary relative to previous years doesn't appear to equate to more wins. It may be that the effect is non-linear--something like: if you spend up to +$10 mil you don't get any return, but if you spend +$12 or more it will buy slightly more wins.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77607301964881055772009-04-28T23:17:00.000-04:002009-04-28T23:17:00.000-04:00Could you explain why the first regression did not...Could you explain why the first regression did not yield similar results? Just curious, thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74206236496503905492009-02-23T16:08:00.000-05:002009-02-23T16:08:00.000-05:00wonderful help alotwonderful help alotAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7184146893467242042009-01-12T13:13:00.000-05:002009-01-12T13:13:00.000-05:00excellent analysisexcellent analysisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com