tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2819502272581625562..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Plotting Run vs. Pass Success Rates (And How to Beat NE)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69533979202500045992011-01-15T08:41:46.492-05:002011-01-15T08:41:46.492-05:00Anthony-No. You don't need to run a whole bunc...Anthony-No. You don't need to run a whole bunch in the beginning of the game to set up passing. What matters is the defense's expectation of the offense's strategy mix. It's the threat of running <i>at any time</i> or the threat of passing <i>at any time</i> that keeps defenses honest. Different situations call for different strategy mixes. Please read the 'How Coaches Think' article for a more complete discussion.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32349320626256555442011-01-15T01:53:09.585-05:002011-01-15T01:53:09.585-05:00If you don't believe running *can* set up pass...If you don't believe running *can* set up passing, you must believe coaches irrationally waste a whole of lot of resources coaching and calling play action.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27676335653751588312011-01-14T23:59:52.766-05:002011-01-14T23:59:52.766-05:00'Simply put, from the perspective of game theo...'Simply put, from the perspective of game theory, it's how we can tell that running "sets up the pass" and vice versa'<br /><br />Brian, <br /><br />Are you implying you believe there is causality? The way you've worded it "running sets up the pass" makes it sound like you believe that running calls the tune (i.e. that there's cause and effect). The 'vice versa' suggests that you don't mean to imply causality, that "passing sets up the run" could be equally true. <br /><br />Presumably to show causality you'd have to do something akin to Football Outsiders "Establishment Clause" research to see if there was a correlation between 1st quarter run success rate and subsequent pass success rate, right?anthonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27458512399969890852011-01-14T20:29:49.871-05:002011-01-14T20:29:49.871-05:00In fairness, SR has been around for literally deca...<em>In fairness, SR has been around for literally decades. Mine's a little different, though...</em><br /><br />Little differences can make a big difference. A lot of general ideas are around for ages before a specific application of them really pays off.<br /><br />But you may disagree with me if you wish, I am modest in my opionions. :-)Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82040013755660706422011-01-14T19:22:28.372-05:002011-01-14T19:22:28.372-05:00Brian,
I realize this is off topic, but I think ...Brian, <br /><br />I realize this is off topic, but I think you are the one to answer this question. At the end of the BCS championship game, Oregon (with one timeout left) ties it with 2:36 left. Wouldn't the best strategy have been: onsides kick, then if you don't recover, allow Auburn to score quickly and try to answer the score to force overtime. This is a general endgame problem for a team scoring late. The onsides kick plan might not work in the pros, where the offense might play for the last second field goal, but college kids would have a hard time stopping themselves at the 1 (ala Brian Westbrook) in order to run out the clock.bmoore_uclanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45727306070457040182011-01-14T19:10:59.611-05:002011-01-14T19:10:59.611-05:00This article seems to indicate that all this rubbi...This article seems to indicate that all this rubbish about "Baltimore [being] the team that the Patriots don't want to see" might not be rubbish after all. Now if we can just beat those god-forsaken Steelers ...Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39635447346892828872011-01-14T18:28:23.233-05:002011-01-14T18:28:23.233-05:00In fairness, SR has been around for literally deca...In fairness, SR has been around for literally decades. Mine's a little different, though. My only real contribution is in discovering its relationship with other variables and its game theory implications.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-126209659032976892011-01-14T16:12:39.896-05:002011-01-14T16:12:39.896-05:00Your "success rate" stat is looking bett...Your "success rate" stat is looking better and better as an analytical innovation all the time.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25575284594082718862011-01-14T15:40:20.609-05:002011-01-14T15:40:20.609-05:00I'm sure you've probably fielded this ques...I'm sure you've probably fielded this question a number of times, but how much consideration have you given to including SR in the predictive model? I'm assuming there will be a certain degree of overlap between, for example, O-pass efficiency and O-pass SR and that the two will correlate to an extent. Is there a way to reduce the overlap while accounting for SR?<br /><br />Also, funny how the offense most suited to your description of what it will take to rack up points on the Patriot's defense is...the Patriots offense. Jets should ask for Woodhead back...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com