tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2979028366246579833..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Roundup 11/23/2013Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12107720780124334712013-11-24T23:05:12.863-05:002013-11-24T23:05:12.863-05:00I'm guessing Kirk was just using a jitter effe...I'm guessing Kirk was just using a jitter effect to spread those data points out. In other words, he knows how far down the field the ball goes, and he knows whether it's left, right, middle, so he probably just adds a slight up/down jitter and a large left/right jitter to make the points spread out.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83512682018351510592013-11-24T06:27:42.934-05:002013-11-24T06:27:42.934-05:00Interesting reading the Mike Smith 4th down decisi...Interesting reading the Mike Smith 4th down decision. Aside from falling for the field-goal-range fallacy, which is standard among coaches, it seems he also consistently underestimates how easy it is to move the ball. His decision assumed that making a 4th-and-15 was incredibly hard, and that making the Saints go 3-and-out was easy.<br /><br />Looking into his background, it's easy to see why. He played linebacker at college and was in defensive coaching roles all the way through his NFL career until he got the head coach job. A classic case of cognitive bias. He's a defensive guy, he overestimates the effect defense has on an NFL play.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14540299818241095422013-11-24T01:18:18.178-05:002013-11-24T01:18:18.178-05:00Um ... oops, I wasn't thinking of you when I s...Um ... oops, I wasn't thinking of you when I said I thought Pete's book was underappreciated. I'll think about how to update the post. <br /><br />BTW, I assumed that Pete was responsible the sabermetric part of the book, since John's mostly a historian and, as far as I could Google, so was Bob Carroll. If that's not right, I'll correct that too.Phil Birnbaumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03800617749001032996noreply@blogger.com