tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3081404167945743284..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Patriots Primarily Punt on Fourth DownUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62650963361700251182013-01-25T16:33:52.131-05:002013-01-25T16:33:52.131-05:00The NE punter was on fire.
I know in theory you a...The NE punter was on fire.<br /><br />I know in theory you aren't supposed to take actual outcome into account, but maybe Belichick had reason to believe the actual outcome he got was much more likely than the models would indicate. <br /><br />What were the EP and WP results of the actual plays?Zachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01115366572915518720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85692243122851765622013-01-23T09:27:10.016-05:002013-01-23T09:27:10.016-05:00With one play to go, the % play is to kick the FG....With one play to go, the % play is to kick the FG. What they should have done (percentage wise) was call timeout to give themselves a couple of shots at the endzone, then go for the FG.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81223017001933823502013-01-22T15:54:37.753-05:002013-01-22T15:54:37.753-05:00What was the WP at the end of the first half. The...What was the WP at the end of the first half. There was nothing that said the Pats had to kick a FG to go up by 6. I thought that was a great opportunity for the Pats to try a TD even if they forgo a FG att. Did Bill make the right call on that play (percentage wise?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54382129208921419832013-01-22T15:36:40.852-05:002013-01-22T15:36:40.852-05:00The average field position after a punt in no-mans...The average field position after a punt in no-mans land is somewhere between the 10 and the 15 yard line. Yes, you could pin them inside the two, a predicament that comes with a few quirks beyond the gained yards. But the odds of that happening are rather small. If the punt looks like it may not result in a touchback, the KR will most likely fair catch the ball where it lands. Pinning the team requires either punting out of bounds, a mistake by the KR, or a fortunate bounce. So the prospect of pinning the team deep is kind of a bill of good.<br /><br />Looking back, the punt was against the wind--that probably makes punting a more efficient option, like golfing against the wind, it makes it easier to drop the ball where you want.<br /><br />I still think going was the best option. Tom Brady is Tom Brady, and he's going to convert some more than the baseline average. 3rd down and 8 is converted 38% of the time, so I'm guessing that's the same number he was going off of.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69636763911664628752013-01-22T13:24:32.980-05:002013-01-22T13:24:32.980-05:00On decisions #4, while the EPs say to go for it, t...On decisions #4, while the EPs say to go for it, the WPs don't. Belichick sacrificed .9 expected points, but only 1% win probability. Maybe 1% win probability is pretty significant, but it doesn't seem vastly different from decision #6.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28196990074244285432013-01-22T11:31:00.924-05:002013-01-22T11:31:00.924-05:00Jon, a decent punt pins them in their own endzone...Jon, a decent punt pins them in their own endzone.<br /><br />James, how often does a bad punt happen in that situation. Sure, it might bounce into the endzone, but you have a chance to drop the team inside their own 20 yard line. There is almost no chance of a return attempt.<br /><br /><br />bottom line, i suspect the high rate of "success" on these 4th and ~10 plays are based on a shockingly low number of samples, and often happen at the end of a game where a first down doesn't really matter, and the D is playing to prevent a TD. One would probably be better served using 3rd down conversion rates. They average around 35%%, and that is not even filtering by distance. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80906784031389853062013-01-22T09:02:02.754-05:002013-01-22T09:02:02.754-05:00From the opponent's 33? Sure it is. A good p...From the opponent's 33? Sure it is. A good punt will net 20 yards. A great punt nets a max of 32 yards. A lousy punt gets you 13. THIRTEEN. That's wiped out in one first down. That's not really worth it. Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48792388090207993472013-01-22T08:49:58.670-05:002013-01-22T08:49:58.670-05:00They are go for it situations because of the field...They are go for it situations because of the field position. A field goal is likely to be missed and put your opponents in good field position, and punting doesn't gain you much ground. The downside of a missed field goal or a bad punt doesn't make the upside worth it, while the upside of attempting a long conversion (TD or higher percentage FG try) is worth the downside of field position. Especially when you have a passing offense as good as the Patriots do.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78977464235568740702013-01-21T20:44:57.140-05:002013-01-21T20:44:57.140-05:004th and 8, and 4th and 9, are allegedly 'go f...4th and 8, and 4th and 9, are allegedly 'go for it' situations? That just doesn't pass the smell test.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67853297931479440312013-01-21T15:31:02.626-05:002013-01-21T15:31:02.626-05:00I think setting aside all the baselines, the one t...I think setting aside all the baselines, the one that stuck out for me in the context of the game was the 4th down with 10 minutes left in the 3rd. And as per your numbers, it was a defensible decision to punt. They're in the middle of a nice drive that figures to put them up two scores, and the drive only stalls because Welker drops a 1st down pass the play before. <br /><br />Ironically, if the Pats go for it and fail and the Ravens go on and score a TD (which they did anyway on a 90 yd drive) the world blames Belichek for being over-aggressive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88798123282506808282013-01-21T13:21:42.239-05:002013-01-21T13:21:42.239-05:00Les, I like your line of thinking. I've seen ...Les, I like your line of thinking. I've seen plenty of games -- the Baltimore/Indy playoff game a few weeks back! -- where the team that was ahead looked at the score and shook their heads saying "is it still really only that close?" <br /><br />The winning team has very little incentive to shake things up except for a harsh reality: they need to change SOMETHING because the other team is about to recalibrate. The Pats' offense looked desperate, trying anything to get five yards: end-around, reverse, double reverse, swing pass, screen against the grain, direct snap with a fake audible... it was bizarre how many different things they tried. Most of them met with moderate success, but I bet you Belichick's math on them said that many of them were 20-yard plays or even touchdown plays. <br /><br />Whoever prepared the Ravens defense with film study and coaching notes did an amazing job. J.R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13913599852443572486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40380809341332462832013-01-21T12:30:53.996-05:002013-01-21T12:30:53.996-05:00The biggest problem with playing low risk/low rewa...The biggest problem with playing low risk/low reward when you're dominating the game like NE was in the first half is that you let the underdog hang around. I thought that NE should have gone for the kill on all the first half 4th downs. Instead they played conservative and let the Ravens hang around and get into the locker room where the coaching staff made great adjustments, especially on offensive play calling. <br />One of the advantages the Ravens had was that because of their first half failure, they had to make adjustments. On the other hand because what NE was doing worked (even if they didn't have the points their dominance should have provided), they didn't see any need to make adjustments. Once the second half began and the Raven adjustments worked, NE wasn't able to make the necessary adjustments.<br />In general I thought the NE got out coached.<br />LesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com