tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3695942469985640054..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Week 12 Efficiency RankingsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42660920641738328632008-12-01T05:53:00.000-05:002008-12-01T05:53:00.000-05:00Atlanta 22 SD 16Atlanta completed 73% of their pas...Atlanta 22 SD 16<BR/><BR/>Atlanta completed 73% of their passes and SD could only run for a full yard per carry less than Atlanta had been allowing to their opponents in the season thus far.Chargers lost the time of possession by almost 10 minutes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79604439053373930272008-11-27T17:11:00.000-05:002008-11-27T17:11:00.000-05:00The Chargers are struggling because of their poor ...The Chargers are struggling because of their poor time of possession numbers.That's related to their poor first down production,they've got the 8th worst first down differential in the NFL. Only SL,Oakland,Detroit,Seattle,Cleveland,KC and Cinci have worse figures.<BR/><BR/>The poor first down differential's down to an inability to defend pass completions.Even though they're about average on pass defense from a yards per play perspective they're allowing about 69% of passes to be completed.Only Denver and Indy are poorer and it's SD's worse defensive showing in this category this decade.Hence teams are piling up the pass attempts,predominantly short ones.360 odd pass attempts against SD described as short on the play by play have gained an average of about 6.4 yards per attempt and teams are attempting about 20% more passes against SD compared to when they pass against other sides.<BR/><BR/>Rivers is making a bold attempt to compensate for the poor effort from the defense,but he's 'only' completing 65% of his passes,albeit for more yards per attempt than SD's opponents,but sadly the real killer is the ground attack that's gaining about 4 tenths of a yard per carry less than SD's opponents are allowing to other running backs.<BR/><BR/>They've been unlucky,but I'd make them a 9-7 side at best.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91422523268479864802008-11-26T13:08:00.000-05:002008-11-26T13:08:00.000-05:00True about the turnovers. They're not generating i...True about the turnovers. They're not generating interceptions like they did last year.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27644581124715774982008-11-26T12:50:00.000-05:002008-11-26T12:50:00.000-05:00I wouldn't say fewer plays is ALWAYS a boon to eff...I wouldn't say fewer plays is ALWAYS a boon to efficiency either, but it is in SD's case this year.<BR/><BR/>Short fields? Yes, mostly due to Sproles. Big plays? Yes. Most importantly, they are a considerably worse defensive unit than the rates would suggest, topping the league in defensive snaps. A -5 TO differential doesn't help, either. <BR/><BR/>You're quite correct that total yard stats are usually misleading but in this case, the extreme disparity between offensive and defensive plays skews the rate stats and masks what is really going on in San Diego's games.<BR/><BR/>Love your site, Brian, and especially your civil tone.<BR/><BR/> <BR/><BR/>They have also become utterly dependent on passing yardageAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19949822128712335692008-11-26T11:16:00.000-05:002008-11-26T11:16:00.000-05:00That's an interesting point. A couple thoughts. I ...That's an interesting point. A couple thoughts. I wouldn't say that fewer plays is always a boon to efficiency. That's only true if a team truly is getting lots of yards on each play. DET, KC and CIN probably aren't getting lots of plays either, and their efficiencies are awful.<BR/><BR/>If SD is so efficient on offense, why aren't they getting more snaps? I think that's a really interesting question. There could be 2 reasons that wouldn't be hurting them-- 1-short fields, and 2-very long scoring plays. What else is going on?<BR/><BR/>You say that teams with so few plays are flawed in many ways. I'm curious what you mean. Not trying to argue here, just want to understand.<BR/><BR/>If we factor in number of plays, we're just back to total yards. And it's clear how misleading total yard stats can be.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4336403987484638852008-11-26T11:03:00.000-05:002008-11-26T11:03:00.000-05:00The problem with San Diego is that their vaunted o...The problem with San Diego is that their vaunted offense isn't on the field enough. They're 30th in offensive plays per game, just above Seattle and Detroit. This is a boon to efficiency but doesn't help them win games. Teams with so few offensive plays are flawed in many ways and will continually confound rate-based projections. BTW, NE is first and this helps explain their improvement in spite of obvious failings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26611489970461655222008-11-25T22:20:00.000-05:002008-11-25T22:20:00.000-05:00Sorry. Yes. Game probabilities will be out Wednesd...Sorry. Yes. Game probabilities will be out Wednesday AM.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77902195858799491422008-11-25T19:33:00.000-05:002008-11-25T19:33:00.000-05:00And I don't disagree about the CAR game either. Bu...And I don't disagree about the CAR game either. But almost every team gets a couple games where they're outplayed but luck out or squeak by. SD doesn't seem to get any breaks.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56437087860467348362008-11-25T19:28:00.000-05:002008-11-25T19:28:00.000-05:00I definitely agree bad game day coaching is part o...I definitely agree bad game day coaching is part of it.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13222863794707606892008-11-25T19:21:00.000-05:002008-11-25T19:21:00.000-05:00i agree with the bad coaching..same thing can appl...i agree with the bad coaching..same thing can apply to the eagles...both SD and Eagles' records are worse than their stats bc of egregious coaching/time management mistakes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62764093016312086872008-11-25T19:09:00.000-05:002008-11-25T19:09:00.000-05:00The Carolina game doesn't strike me as bad luck at...The Carolina game doesn't strike me as bad luck at all -- SD was outgained 388-316, each offense received a short field once b/c of a fumble (CAR scored on theirs, SD drove 30 yds for a TD on theirs) and there were no massive kick returns.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25047472504602798822008-11-25T18:48:00.000-05:002008-11-25T18:48:00.000-05:00I think that part of the 4-7 record for SD has to ...I think that part of the 4-7 record for SD has to be attributed to the coaching. It's easy to understand how a couple of bad coaching moves can undermine great stats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56353104606023715202008-11-25T17:39:00.000-05:002008-11-25T17:39:00.000-05:00brian..can you get your week 13 probabilities out ...brian..can you get your week 13 probabilities out earlier this week? by wed. afternoon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com