tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3716283284682366999..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Win Probability Graphs: 2007 PlayoffsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46449837685925114262009-09-23T12:54:46.044-04:002009-09-23T12:54:46.044-04:00Hey I just found this site. I was wondering how y...Hey I just found this site. I was wondering how you found that the Burress TD catch had a +0.41 WPA. It looks to me that the Giants' win probabiliy was 0.82 after the third down conversion to Steve Smith, and after the TD to Burress (on the very next play) it went to 0.92, making it a +0.10 WPA play. Perhaps I am misunderstanding the graph?<br /><br />Thanks for the site, this is great stuff.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57305874769451897032009-06-04T11:13:03.361-04:002009-06-04T11:13:03.361-04:00I'm just talking about QB's, RB's, TE&...I'm just talking about QB's, RB's, TE's, and WR's. Those are the only players you have to do it for. You could also do it for team offenses and defenses.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19659246555050705062009-06-03T22:27:39.595-04:002009-06-03T22:27:39.595-04:00Sure. But the complex team aspect of football make...Sure. But the complex team aspect of football makes it less meaningful than for baseball. It's as if every player on the field gets an "assist" for every play. Who gets credit for the WPA of a sack, the guy who drew the double-team block or the guy who was left unblocked? But it can be done, with some caveats.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74776687058784490132009-06-03T21:51:01.460-04:002009-06-03T21:51:01.460-04:00The above post is about individual stats using WPA...The above post is about individual stats using WPA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10846714162667282402009-06-03T21:50:32.270-04:002009-06-03T21:50:32.270-04:00Can you do a WPA stat like in baseball. Find out h...Can you do a WPA stat like in baseball. Find out how many probablility points a player lost and how many they gained on a play. For example, A receiver makes a 15 catch, he adds 3% to +WPA, he gets +0.03 +WPA points, the QB throws an incomplete pass to him and the WP losses by 2%, he gets a -0.02 -WPA points. Overall het gets a 0.01 WPA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83182016575457936632009-06-03T21:14:02.996-04:002009-06-03T21:14:02.996-04:00Jon-Thanks for the suggestion. The log scale would...Jon-Thanks for the suggestion. The log scale would be scientifically useful, but could be too abstract for many people. Besides, the same play at the end of a close game, compared to an early play or play at the end of a blowout, will have a larger WP swing and also be more exciting.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81385763971917600762009-06-03T20:16:44.654-04:002009-06-03T20:16:44.654-04:00Thanks, Brian. I;ve been digging these WPA charts...Thanks, Brian. I;ve been digging these WPA charts ever since studes started using them at Hardball Times for baseball. I wonder if they would look better if they were on a log scale instead of linear scale. It seems like the right side might overstate how much excitement in a close game is at the end.Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07465013255057574351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76700305047546927682009-06-03T12:21:34.684-04:002009-06-03T12:21:34.684-04:00(ER) Entertainment Rating(ER) Entertainment RatingUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16462424620403517405noreply@blogger.com