tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3960526961128313636..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The New Overtime FormatUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47092098397262668142010-05-02T01:17:05.298-04:002010-05-02T01:17:05.298-04:00@Tarr, I'm more than a lil late responding to ...@Tarr, I'm more than a lil late responding to your response but i'll give it a shot regardless. Yes, I read it and you didn't address it. YOU skimmed over what would happen in OT when the score would be tied as having less drama because it'd be one of many situations. Problem is that's the ONLY situation that matters. How much harder will teams try to get TD's instead of field goals? I'm guessing going for it on 4th down (when they're in field goal range) has a worse success rate than if they kicked the field goal and let it go to OT. Teams have a worse chance of winning the game by getting a 2 pt conversion than if they tied it and let the the other team get the first OT possession. So the most important situation, you know the one you "skimmed over," that'll be the situation most affected...making the game worse.Timnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71739423778139590992010-04-14T16:25:15.014-04:002010-04-14T16:25:15.014-04:00Because the second team has nothing to lose by goi...Because the second team has nothing to lose by going for it on every 4th down. Either they go for it or they automatically lose. Punting buys them nothing, so they'll never punt, so they have a higher chance of scoring.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64680648348621301562010-04-14T12:44:46.336-04:002010-04-14T12:44:46.336-04:00I was wondering if any one can answer this questio...I was wondering if any one can answer this question for me. On the diagram if a team scores a Field goal on the 1st possession why does the 2nd team have a higher probabilty of scoring both a Touch Down and a Field Goal then the 1st did on the 1st possession?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49031729207041758412010-04-12T18:41:36.395-04:002010-04-12T18:41:36.395-04:00Just for fun...
Franchise Possession Arrows:
All...Just for fun...<br /><br />Franchise Possession Arrows:<br /><br />All teams start with a "possession arrow" equal to zero.<br /><br />If you win a coin toss for overtime, your p.a. is adjusted by -1.<br /><br />If you lose a coin toss, your p.a. is adjusted by +1.<br /><br />When teams meet that have different p.a. values, the higher team automatically wins the toss (and both scores are adjusted).<br /><br />[Optional: A team which loses a tiebreaker for a playoff spot (but not for playoff seeding) (and excluding head-to-head) gets a +1; the team winning such a tie-breaker gets a -1.]<br /><br />A team which has clinched a playoff spot, or been mathematically eliminated, may chose to defer.<br /><br />If both teams defer, a coin toss is used. However, a team which defers will never have their p.a. adjusted positively OR negatively.<br /><br />Playoffs count double, whether a p.a. difference is used or a coin flip is required (because of tied p.a.'s).<br /><br />...<br /><br />Complicated, perhaps, but the details can be handled off-the-field and don't require any additional thinking for our mentally taxed head coaches.Jasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67319595783426420582010-04-11T19:05:27.505-04:002010-04-11T19:05:27.505-04:00Tim,
I addressed that exact situation. Did you r...Tim,<br /><br />I addressed that exact situation. Did you read my post or just skim the first and last paragraphs? I noted explicitly that that situation has less drama. I also noted that two other equally likely situations have more drama.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18736192117453375222010-04-10T10:51:26.579-04:002010-04-10T10:51:26.579-04:00@Tarr,
I gotta disagree. You're missing the m...@Tarr,<br /><br />I gotta disagree. You're missing the most obvious side effect of having that form of OT. For ex) there is 2 minutes left on the clock and a team is driving and the score is tied. But with your system they have no reason to go to a hurry up offense or try to move the ball quickly. They can just take their sweet time (like its the beginning of the 2nd quarter) and go down and score sometime at the beginning of OT. That's where the lack of excitement will come from.Timnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47164323159596040082010-04-09T19:38:51.766-04:002010-04-09T19:38:51.766-04:00Rickter, Marver, and Nate are right. Simply conti...Rickter, Marver, and Nate are right. Simply continuing the game *IS* the best, and obvious, soultion. It's perfectly fair, it's decisive (i.e. it won't result in more ties), it causes games to end as quickly or more quickly than they usually do, and it doesn't distort the game in any significant way.<br /><br />The common complaint about removing time pressure at the end of close games is a red herring. I've put this up before, but let's examine the various situations that teams can face when they have the ball in what is likely to be the last meaningful posession of a game:<br /><br />Down 8+ points: no change in strategy from the current OT system.<br /><br />Down 7 points: more likely to go for 2, because you know your opponent will have the ball in OT. Result: more strategy, more drama, fewer games going into OT.<br /><br />Down 4, 5, or 6 points: no change in strategy from the current OT system.<br /><br />Down 3: More likely to go play for the touchdown, in stead of getting conservative once you get into field goal range and taking your chances in OT. Result: more strategy, more drama, more time pressure, fewer games going into OT.<br /><br />Down 2 or 1: no change in strategy from the current OT system.<br /><br />Tied game: removes the time pressure. The game basically feels like an OT game right away. Result: a wash strategically, but less drama, and more likely to go into OT.<br /><br />Leading: no change in strategy from the current OT system.<br /><br />So, in total, you don't increase the incidence of OT, nor do make the game more simple strategically.<br /><br />If you regard ANY change in endgame strategy as inherently bad, then you can of course reject the above argument. But I think it's impossible to look at the above breakdown and argue rationally that this is somehow taking the drama out of endgame situations.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59152879425743434752010-04-06T14:16:13.893-04:002010-04-06T14:16:13.893-04:00Nate--WRONG. Have you ever seen anybody hurry up ...Nate--WRONG. Have you ever seen anybody hurry up to score before the end of the 3rd quarter? <br /><br />If you keep the ball into OT, nobody will try to hurry up with the game tied late in the 4th Q (and that's the games we're discussing--those who are tied at the end of the 4th Q which will go to overtime).<br />Maybe Brian can help with this--Brian, when does the last score IN REGULATION take place (on average) for OT games? In the last 2 minutes? Last 5?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33895925319715672022010-04-01T15:52:43.657-04:002010-04-01T15:52:43.657-04:00Dave,
Sure, in some situations the game would be ...Dave,<br /><br />Sure, in some situations the game would be less exciting, like a long last-second field goal with the game tied. In other situations it would be more exciting -- for example, if a team scored a touchdown to tie the game near the end of regulation, they'd now go for a two-point conversion. Overall, it seems like a wash.<br /><br />Thanks,<br />- NateNatenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88799147249971691242010-03-31T15:51:34.992-04:002010-03-31T15:51:34.992-04:00I like what the NFL did, because as you pointed ou...I like what the NFL did, because as you pointed out before, it really help to level the number of games essentially decided by a coin toss while managing to keep many of aspects of regulation play involved. Although your suggestion would help, i dont think coaches knowing they won't get the ball first in OT would make up for a 10% change that this new rule is estimated to adjust for. Plus it's not quite the same as baseball, because in baseball every inning you're playing til 4th down. The bases are wiped clean and there is no "protecting field position by punting on 4th down" instead of being gusty and going for it. But in sudden death football, you have the option to be aggressive and go for it on 4th down or protecting field possession.<br /><br />With that being said, most ppl don't realize football OT is more similar to baseball than to hockey, soccer, or wrestling (real wrestling). Ppl may argue that in football the defense can score, unlike baseball. BUT what they dont realize is on any DRIVE, there is less than a 2% chance the defense will score a TD or safety(turnovers may set things up, but that's a change of possession with the offense then taking the field). In other words, from the 158 OT games in the last decade it would be estimated there were THREE OT games won by the defense scoring off the offense's first possession drive in the last decade, so you NEED some sort of guaranteed possession system in football OT. Baseball is obv 0% and it's hard to calculate soccer, hockey, and wrestling because their play is continuous but i'm guessing it's a lot higher than 2%. But regardless football isn't that far off from baseball. and THAT would be an interesting stat breakdown to see shown.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69449679772690182602010-03-31T15:34:27.735-04:002010-03-31T15:34:27.735-04:00Seems like the auction for field position would pr...Seems like the auction for field position would preserve the suspense of who gets the ball first in OT, mitigate the first-possesion advantage, and add a wildly facinating new element to OT games. Seems like a perfect and simple adjustment to the new format!Josh Robbenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03022804853496171090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50776501803186545392010-03-31T13:35:42.725-04:002010-03-31T13:35:42.725-04:00I don't think the two games or so affected by ...I don't think the two games or so affected by coin toss in a regular season really matter but certainly for post season...<br /><br />Take out the toss (other than Superbowl)<br /><br />Home team has option of first or second drive<br /><br />Team One starts at 15. If Defense score, game over. FGA only allowed on 4th Down. PAT only; no TPC<br /><br />Whatever the result (other than Defense score)..<br /><br />Team Two starts at 15. Matching FGA again only allowed on 4th Down. If TD, only PAT allowed<br /><br />If FG or Off TD are matched - with or without the PAT, then Team One resume at their 15<br /><br />Play is now continuous until a score but a FGA is still only allowed on 4th Down<br /><br />HughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67911683028616152622010-03-31T01:11:58.417-04:002010-03-31T01:11:58.417-04:00Dave-
good point. The pressure of the clock at the...Dave-<br />good point. The pressure of the clock at the end of the game is very dramatic. You could imagine teams intentionally running out the 4th quarter clock, so that the score would take place in overtime rather than regulation, just to make sure that it would be sudden death, with no need for a last second kickoff (e.g., music city miracle).Samuelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86217960020300179192010-03-30T23:32:11.182-04:002010-03-30T23:32:11.182-04:00Re: Rickter, Marver and Nate
The downside is obvi...Re: Rickter, Marver and Nate<br /><br />The downside is obvious: in a tie game, there would be no pressure on the team with the ball to score before the end of regulation. Remember Adam Vinatieri's dramatic 48 yard field goal to beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI as time expired? If the game continued into the "fifth quarter" as it were, the Patriots could have taken their sweet ass time, 4 yards and 40 seconds at a time. They would have kicked a chip shot field goal five minutes into overtime and it would have been boring and terrible.<br /><br />If there's one thing I've discovered in discussing different overtime scenarios it's this: NOBODY CAN AGREE ON ANY SOLUTION. Every suggestion has a downside- either it's less dramatic, or it's not fair enough, or it takes too long, or it leads to ties. No matter WHAT the league decided on, most people would find something to complain about.<br /><br />Instead of criticizing the league on this, let's give them some credit for doing something right for once. I actually find this rule to be a good combination of fairness (although it's not perfectly fair), brevity (although it's not perfectly brief), and drama. Nobody can name a proposal that beats this one on all three of those criteria.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2506309145136636922010-03-29T18:29:16.436-04:002010-03-29T18:29:16.436-04:00I can't understand why Rickter and Marver'...I can't understand why Rickter and Marver's suggestion hasn't gotten any traction. It's fair, it's simple, and it's exciting. What's the downside?Natenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34902674005421392622010-03-29T14:21:47.216-04:002010-03-29T14:21:47.216-04:00What happens in double or triple OT?What happens in double or triple OT?Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12462653776655943312010-03-29T11:15:16.426-04:002010-03-29T11:15:16.426-04:00I would favor giving the home team the advantage (...I would favor giving the home team the advantage (i.e. the equivalent of having won the OT coin flip) for all games except the Super Bowl, when the team with the better record in the regular season (subject to tiebreakers if they had the same record) gets the advantage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26024565696306256492010-03-29T09:05:45.713-04:002010-03-29T09:05:45.713-04:00For people who dismiss moving the kickoff back to ...For people who dismiss moving the kickoff back to the 35: this does not have to mean more touchbacks. Simply make kicking the ball out on the fly a penalty, and taking a touchback on a kick that lands in play a penalty.<br /><br />The ball goes to the 10 or 30 yard yard on a touchback, depending on who gets penalized. The result? Almost all kicks get returned AND field position after the kickoff is pushed back by 5 yards.<br /><br />This could be used only for OT, for all kickoffs that start a half, or for all kickoffs - although the last two would reduce scoring.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7551497487549673102010-03-29T00:51:16.022-04:002010-03-29T00:51:16.022-04:00I don't understand why the game can't just...I don't understand why the game can't just continue at the end of regulation in a tie game. I always thought it was a sham that teams would lay down at the end of regulation to force overtime, and deciding by coin flip certainly makes less sense than letting the team with current possession keep possession.<br /><br />The second guessing from the media following the first overtime playoff game that doesn't end on a first possession touchdown will be overwhelmingly irritating.Marverhttp://pigskintelligence.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79259092584107050832010-03-28T22:01:09.050-04:002010-03-28T22:01:09.050-04:00Also Brian, if you are looking for topics to post ...Also Brian, if you are looking for topics to post about during the off-season, I would love to hear your thoughts on 4th down decisions in the new overtime format based on WP in different down/distance/field position situations. My gut tells me there are very few situations in which kicking a FG is the best decision.brettnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-84460944869378161502010-03-28T21:37:29.943-04:002010-03-28T21:37:29.943-04:00I'd be okay with the new playoff overtime form...I'd be okay with the new playoff overtime format if the 2nd team got a chance to respond to an opening drive touchdown. Using the numbers from your event tree, if the 2nd team matches the touchdown 75% of the time, it would bring the overtime odds down to 50-50. 75% is high, but not that high since they can use all 4 downs. Using a more conservative estimate of 40% would give the coin-toss winner about a 53% chance of winning.brettnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44889707829785395722010-03-28T17:25:42.665-04:002010-03-28T17:25:42.665-04:00I love the idea of an auction, but I don't thi...I love the idea of an auction, but I don't think we'll ever see anything like that.Dr Obvioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00966038406811006557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4670328216618417392010-03-27T10:45:37.251-04:002010-03-27T10:45:37.251-04:00I wonder what the win-probability trees look like ...I wonder what the win-probability trees look like for some of the other "reasonable" proposals to fix OT, or if it is even possible to do sudden death OT in a WP-neutral manner? It seems like playing a full 5th quarter (with a new kickoff) is the only "fair" option.billsfannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3270713593902668732010-03-27T05:55:42.805-04:002010-03-27T05:55:42.805-04:00I've been saying for a few years now, the coin...I've been saying for a few years now, the coin toss should be thrown out, and the OT should begin like it was the start of a new quarter. Teams switch sides, and the team that has the ball retains possession. If one team scores on the last play of regulation, they kick off to start the overtime so the opponent has an opportunity to respond to the score, which would almost guarantee most coaches would go for two since the 60% chance of converting is better that the 40% chance of winning the game after kicking off to start OT.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12978198364401006363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2697541147987751002010-03-26T22:43:49.223-04:002010-03-26T22:43:49.223-04:00You may be right that the home team in baseball ha...You may be right that the home team in baseball has a statistical advantage from the 9th inning on, but it's worth noting that the visiting team has certain strategic advantages as well. For example, if they are tied facing a man on third with zero or one outs, they can bring the outfield in, bring in a pitcher who has a high strikeout rate, and/or change their lineup to improve their defense knowing they have to get outs. These are adjustments that the home team may not feel confident making in similar situations.<br /><br />In other words, the home team knows exactly what's needed to win, but the visiting team knows exactly what's needed to avoid losing.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09233054136540313673noreply@blogger.com