tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post4115295295040315862..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): EPA Production and Cap Value, Skill PositionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1313870676622725052013-05-01T15:21:37.819-04:002013-05-01T15:21:37.819-04:00To me this indicates something might be slightly o...To me this indicates something might be slightly off with EPA. I generally agree with the conclusions, but Megatron/Fitz/AP types I think are able to provide significantly more value than their typical counterparts.<br /><br />It seems as if non-QBs max out at like 4 EPA/game. Is there a person in existence that would take Carson Palmer over Megatron? Maybe replacement level isn't being factored enough? <br /><br />RBs appear to cap at about 2 EPA/game. That just seems so little.Two Scoopsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35027273566927042162013-04-26T16:59:55.742-04:002013-04-26T16:59:55.742-04:00It seems like to accurately assess a player's ...It seems like to accurately assess a player's value, you can't measure EPA/G, but rather "EPA/G above replacement". This will lower the QB's values since most back-up QB's can still outperform starting (and even elite) RB's in terms of EPA/G. This does not make them more valuable, however, and will give you a much more coherent and meaningful set of data.Mike Filicicchiahttp://www.thisischurch.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29136134202102531612013-04-20T06:47:07.575-04:002013-04-20T06:47:07.575-04:00What about Brady and Rodgers not being on your gra...What about Brady and Rodgers not being on your graph at all?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61974881724582042252013-04-19T17:41:08.184-04:002013-04-19T17:41:08.184-04:00James--that's a good point. It's tricky. I...James--that's a good point. It's tricky. If I use EPA/P that overvalues positions that are used less often than others. The constant would fix that.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89543014743526634112013-04-18T19:21:45.232-04:002013-04-18T19:21:45.232-04:00I don't think any GM would be surprised at all...I don't think any GM would be surprised at all. If anything this shows the limited value of EPA. I would have been stunned to read that RB salary had anything to do with EPA. The role of the RB has changed so much over the past decade. There's very few RBs considered as more than "closers" for their QB. Certainly the consensus view on Aaron Rodger's WPA trailing his EPA must be that the defense has let too many teams back into the game, partially because the Packers don't have a RB to keep the clock rolling and close out the game. In short: RBs are paid for WPA, not EPA. Why did you choose EPA instead of WPA?<br /><br />Have you considered tracking an additional stat that incorporates the shift in momentum? You could weight EPA by the time since the opponent's last score, or something similar. My intuition (probably wrong) is that this would correlate quite strongly with QB salaries. Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, now Flacco are all valued for their ability to "answer" when their opponent scores. It would probably have a negative correlation with RB salaries.<br />Drew Vogelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12660521183263845575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10464319024769303972013-04-18T11:15:30.771-04:002013-04-18T11:15:30.771-04:00Brian, don't you need to add a constant to EPA...Brian, don't you need to add a constant to EPA per play to be able to do this analysis? A RB that provided 0 EPA over 300 carries is more valuable than one that provided 0 EPA over 30 carries.<br /><br />It's like the difference between Wins Above Average and Wins Above Replacement in baseball.<br /><br />Also, without removing the rookie contracts it's hard to see what this means. As you probably already know Chase has been working on the same topic over at footballperspective.comJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3434148790506339782013-04-18T09:34:22.456-04:002013-04-18T09:34:22.456-04:00^Rodgers too. There's one unlabeled blue dot b...^Rodgers too. There's one unlabeled blue dot between Vick and Favre, but both their EPAs are higher than that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71164710458497460672013-04-18T09:02:11.534-04:002013-04-18T09:02:11.534-04:00Wow, if you're a RB you're hoping your GM ...Wow, if you're a RB you're hoping your GM doesn't see this. If there's no correlation between what teams pay and the performance they get back, then you can pretty much stick anyone back there. Which is kind of what people think anyway, use the money to beef up your o-line. Behind a quality line, even I could rack up 4 yards per carry.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33432090376833659352013-04-18T07:50:12.021-04:002013-04-18T07:50:12.021-04:00So, where is Tom Brady in this chart??So, where is Tom Brady in this chart??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com