tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5173437884372795008..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Broncos Botch Final DrivesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91429072699735046532013-01-18T17:29:00.487-05:002013-01-18T17:29:00.487-05:00i'm still in shock my donkey's lost,i hope...i'm still in shock my donkey's lost,i hope the raven's beat the freekin patriots :D Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16274346092068856492013-01-16T21:30:15.093-05:002013-01-16T21:30:15.093-05:00correction on brady's sb drive vs rams - there...correction on brady's sb drive vs rams - there was exactly 1:21 left and they were on their 18; still a great drive and madden admitted he was wrong.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVphiMBbGaM<br /><br />What is so terrible about Fox's decisions is that he didn't even TRY. At ends of both halves, he could've at least tried something on 1st down - if it's not successful, then you kill the clock. But to lay down is sad.<br /><br />And then the 3rd and 7 with Ravens playing 8-man front - play-action fake, short throw//low-risk play and game's over. If you miss, you give balto 30 more seconds, so what. I agree, Fox oughta be fired. This article makes his play-not-to-lose decision with Peyton at QB even more discredited:<br /> <br />http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8828013/how-return-simplicity-peyton-manning-indy-offense-ignited-denver-broncos - this excellent article was written Jan 9th, irony is truly cruel at times.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1485404136332547182013-01-16T01:00:19.246-05:002013-01-16T01:00:19.246-05:00It's very frustrating to watch a coach never c...It's very frustrating to watch a coach never change his ways or go with his gut. His whole basis on using the percentages is so rediculous. Sometime you gotta have balls and make a bold decision and live with it if you fail. That's why Bellicheck is so superior, he goes with his gut. After that horrible play by Moore, we had a shot to still get out if there with a win and we conceded. Hard to root for. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08336722807827503406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66322403703741309662013-01-15T22:26:41.923-05:002013-01-15T22:26:41.923-05:0050% versus 57%.
I'm surprised how close th...50% versus 57%. <br /><br />I'm surprised how close the two decisions are. That is based on a league wide set of circumstances I imagine, and does not take into account the 14 deg F temperature and that they were going against the wind. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9510349410609753152013-01-15T20:43:49.975-05:002013-01-15T20:43:49.975-05:00In the Super Bowl against the Rams, the Patriots w...In the Super Bowl against the Rams, the Patriots were faced with a similar situation. Tie game at the end of the fourth quarter, maybe 30 seconds left on the clock. John Madden, who's the color announcer for the game, says the Patriots should take a knee and head to overtime.<br /><br />The Patriots run a few plays, get into range and kick a field goal for the win.<br /><br />Because that's what teams who play to win do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70648951764390914442013-01-14T19:48:23.340-05:002013-01-14T19:48:23.340-05:00Sure mile high altitude would help a kick, but sin...Sure mile high altitude would help a kick, but single digit temperatures take some air out of the ball. Deeper than the deepest baby!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89509761133636287792013-01-14T13:06:02.064-05:002013-01-14T13:06:02.064-05:00My "Which Mr. Goldner just demonstrated was ...My "Which Mr. Goldner just demonstrated was 57% succesful" sentence was supposed to be deleted, the rest of my post standsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70704958466041638162013-01-14T13:04:27.154-05:002013-01-14T13:04:27.154-05:00Anon who wanted Baltimore to go for 2.
You seem ...Anon who wanted Baltimore to go for 2. <br /><br />You seem to be confusing the situation that occured to a situation with no time left in the game. I'll concede 50/50 on them making it. But assuming they make it they are now up 1, and force the Broncos to try to score. Which Mr. Goldner just demonstrated was 57% succesful. So the odds of Blatimore winning should they go for 1 are .5 times 4/21= .4 (4 made field goals out of 21 sample)<br /><br />Keith I take issue with comparing a tie game to all games where there is a defeceit of 1-3. If you are losing you will be much more agressive, go for it on 4th etc. without really caring if you throw an interception. While you increased your sample size you introduced biasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45695236199400248692013-01-14T12:42:43.814-05:002013-01-14T12:42:43.814-05:00The risk was the same at the end of the game as it...The risk was the same at the end of the game as it would be in overtime. Denver had control of the game they had the football they had time they had time outs. <br /><br />Fox should be fired for that decision. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85374420771878795502013-01-14T01:36:32.657-05:002013-01-14T01:36:32.657-05:00Because, well, so has everyone else. Because, well, so has everyone else. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61411939936436534442013-01-13T22:14:19.905-05:002013-01-13T22:14:19.905-05:00Thanks for presenting these numbers. Why does it s...Thanks for presenting these numbers. Why does it seem like Manning has been plagued with coaches more interesting in not losing than winning? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88947176822183238022013-01-13T21:25:48.332-05:002013-01-13T21:25:48.332-05:00The coaches know a lot more about football than I ...The coaches know a lot more about football than I do, but at these in game decision points they are just cover your eyes awful. I cannot believe no owners have clamped down on this yet. A win has got to be worth a million at least.<br /><br />They might be doing 95% of their job at the highest level possible, but this 5% of it they do with all the skill of a 8 year old. My wife would make better decisions if you told her the odds and situation.General-Specificnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66649394566625770992013-01-13T20:59:10.407-05:002013-01-13T20:59:10.407-05:00Byesac-
I remember looking at that, was going to ...Byesac-<br /><br />I remember looking at that, was going to do a write up on it before the Denver decisions. League-average baseline has it as a coin flip (14% expected win probability both going for it and attempting the field goal). Because it's in Denver, it probably moves it ever so slightly toward kicking the field goal (field goal odds increase a solid amount).Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26090478629060338142013-01-13T20:56:58.597-05:002013-01-13T20:56:58.597-05:00Broncos should have been more focused on getting a...Broncos should have been more focused on getting a first down when they had the ball and the lead. Play action on first down struck me as a good choice. Get another first down and the game is over. No punt, no heroes.James E. Powellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03411674142419407865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83838585227862373882013-01-13T20:52:56.743-05:002013-01-13T20:52:56.743-05:00Fox coached our panthers and was always inclined t...Fox coached our panthers and was always inclined to be conservative and not take risks. Of course he didn't have Manning at QB but old habits are hard to change.<br />Looking at the various games it seems that coaches are going to have to adapt to the fact that offenses can put out lots of points quick. 30 seconds with current offenses is forever especially with a couple of time outs. Coaches that don't change and start to take risks will not win many playoff games.<br />Fox's choice to rush 3 on the Ravens' final TD seems a bit too conservative. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7783109130970108182013-01-13T20:01:33.500-05:002013-01-13T20:01:33.500-05:00I wanted to hear your analysis of the Ravens' ...I wanted to hear your analysis of the Ravens' decision to go for it on 4th and 6 with 3:some odd left in the game rather than kick the FG. Moot point now, though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-8322798555398284382013-01-13T19:37:58.572-05:002013-01-13T19:37:58.572-05:00I couldn't believe my eyes on those calls. Par...I couldn't believe my eyes on those calls. Particularly because they both immediately followed the Ravens going a greater distance (for a TD, no less) in roughly the same amount of time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81625302733711122502013-01-13T18:58:41.701-05:002013-01-13T18:58:41.701-05:00I think John Fox made the wrong decision, but I be...I think John Fox made the wrong decision, but I believe the wind was against him, which probably factored into his decision (although that's like Mr. Burns pulling Daryl Strawberry out of the game for Homer Simpson because Darly was a lefty - you can over think these things).<br /><br />My memory may be a bit off, but I recall the exact same thing happening to a Peyton Manning led team in the 2000 playoffs. The Dolphins had tied the game up with 34 seconds left. As I remember it, Jim Mora either had Manning take a knee, or they ran the ball once and let the clock run out.<br /><br />The game went to overtime, Vandershank missed a 49 yarder, and the Dolphins won on a Lamar Smith touchdown run.Michael Beuoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03960600491528993233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88438309903728457812013-01-13T18:00:48.609-05:002013-01-13T18:00:48.609-05:00http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/almost-alw...http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/almost-always-go-for-2-point.html<br /><br />Via running play, it's over 60%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90840449040495574862013-01-13T17:58:42.929-05:002013-01-13T17:58:42.929-05:00Where are you getting 60% chance of converting a 2...Where are you getting 60% chance of converting a 2-pt. conversion attempt?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35190976646873201872013-01-13T17:49:54.624-05:002013-01-13T17:49:54.624-05:00I watched this with disgust for the decision-makin...I watched this with disgust for the decision-making.<br /><br />Don't forget the call by BAL to NOT go for two on the final TD. They SHOULD have gone for the win with a running play, rather than play for the OT. 60% odds of winning right there rather than the 50/50 of OT.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com