tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5220284284074751722..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Who's 'Clutch' in 2010?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50079434450555380982011-01-13T22:21:28.533-05:002011-01-13T22:21:28.533-05:00Matt Ryan plays for a balanced ball control offens...Matt Ryan plays for a balanced ball control offense that does not rack up a lot of yards but tends to finish drives with points. (5th in Scoring Offense)<br /><br />When things are going to plan ... Matt is more of a game manager ... But has the tools and weapons to pull out the comeback if necessary. <br /><br />Also ... Even back from his BC days ... He tends to focus better under pressure. I am sure you understand that as an ex-Navy pilot.<br /><br />Both the system he plays in as well as his inherent personality traits are possible reasons for the gap in statsical performance you are capturing.<br /><br />Neither have to do with luck.<br /><br />Incidentally ... I believe the Falcons' style of play is penalized by your predictive model since yards are traded (on both sides of the ball) to gain leverage in other aspects of the game. Also the Falcons have excellent ST which I believe are ignored in your model.Gitelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09859375679197324435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45852626876949688232011-01-01T03:31:37.895-05:002011-01-01T03:31:37.895-05:00Wow, Sanchez is #3 by clutch -- which I take to be...Wow, Sanchez is #3 by clutch -- which I take to be mostly luck -- and FOer recently said he laps the league in having 13 dropped would-be interceptions, far more than any other QB, which has got to be happy random chance.<br /><br />As someone on another site said, if he's this bad when he's this lucky how bad is he going to be when his luck runs out?Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67917763509174728672010-12-29T12:12:06.493-05:002010-12-29T12:12:06.493-05:00Wouldn't using WPA/LI be a better way in deter...Wouldn't using WPA/LI be a better way in determing "clutch"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80399232503197935522010-12-29T01:30:21.821-05:002010-12-29T01:30:21.821-05:00Interesting idea. One possible problem is that EP...Interesting idea. One possible problem is that EPA already has some "clutch" built into it in the form of 3rd down conversions. So this measure would favor late game clutch over 3rd down clutch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16043039008040499662010-12-28T00:28:13.472-05:002010-12-28T00:28:13.472-05:00The obvious thing to do is to just check the year-...<em>The obvious thing to do is to just check the year-to-year...</em><br /><br />Right. Last year to this?Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87714357615172605162010-12-27T20:34:07.753-05:002010-12-27T20:34:07.753-05:00randomdude, there probably is no difference, which...randomdude, there probably is no difference, which is why he distinguishes between clutch as a skill vs. clutch performances. <br /><br />However, the question is still technically open because (1) no one has actually tested whether such performances are consistent from year to year (which could suggest clutch is a skill), and (2) it's possible that the skill exists but can't be measured with the data available.<br /><br />I wonder about that last point, though. One thing that's always intrigued me about WPA as a stat is its potential to test this question of whether performance in high-leverage situations is a skill.bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00336001437381184261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58536219084776484122010-12-27T16:30:19.939-05:002010-12-27T16:30:19.939-05:00I don't see the difference between "clutc...I don't see the difference between "clutch" and "luck" here. I like the premise though, simple yet effective. Seems comparable to an FIP vs. ERA comparison.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07477398746336007061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25962740382680990402010-12-27T11:35:45.887-05:002010-12-27T11:35:45.887-05:00The obvious thing to do is to just check the year-...The obvious thing to do is to just check the year-to-year (or even first half of the season to second half of the season) correlation of "clutch". I think it's probably safe to re-label that column "luck"...<br /><br />I knew Clausen was bad, but wow, I had no idea. Hey, at least he's been pretty clutch...Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.com