tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5918658178554804028..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Win Probability Model/Calculator Upgrades - Team Strength Adjustment & MoreUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45280663287461569912013-12-05T22:57:40.343-05:002013-12-05T22:57:40.343-05:00Impressive additions and explanationsImpressive additions and explanationsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44110638052956703262013-12-05T13:08:04.497-05:002013-12-05T13:08:04.497-05:00Brian -
Awesome upgrade to the calculator! Thanks...Brian -<br /><br />Awesome upgrade to the calculator! Thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03108711283276399018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61639296710292316572013-12-05T12:36:20.153-05:002013-12-05T12:36:20.153-05:00Wow, you weren't joking when you said that was...Wow, you weren't joking when you said that was coming very soon. Are there any plans to do something similar for adjusted EP, either on the drive or overall?Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26572215546226851152013-12-05T11:14:03.803-05:002013-12-05T11:14:03.803-05:00Andrew-The shape of the curve is log-shaped. The s...Andrew-The shape of the curve is log-shaped. The strength of the effect decays to zero as the game goes on. I wasn't trying to be mathematically literal. <br /><br />I haven't done a real-time implementation yet. I envision having 2 versions of each graph. And the calculator outputs both unadjusted and adjusted WP.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49008132366972938952013-12-05T10:42:22.896-05:002013-12-05T10:42:22.896-05:00"Team strength differential decays proportion..."Team strength differential decays proportionally to the log of time as the game progresses according to a particular curve"<br /><br />What does this mean? The log of time (even scaled by 60 minutes) will diverge to infinity at one end or the other of the game (depending on whether it's the log of time or log of time remaining.) <br /><br />Presumably, as you add it as a logit, it decays to 0.5?<br /><br />Will the real-time game WPA charts be taking the game probabilities into account from now on? (Or might that be somehow a toggleable option?) Andrew Folandhttp://nuclearmangos.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26739644827446966972013-12-05T10:31:18.089-05:002013-12-05T10:31:18.089-05:00James-eventually. But then there's a similar p...James-eventually. But then there's a similar problem when a team may transition from a conventional mindset into what the model considers a 4-down mindset. Whoever participates in the intervening play would be unfairly rewarded.<br /><br />Anon-Not yet. That's a whole other level of complexity. I can still do things 'manually' as you describe for particular cases/analysis.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27914640010658742502013-12-05T10:12:01.368-05:002013-12-05T10:12:01.368-05:00Great news! I'm glad to know these improvement...Great news! I'm glad to know these improvements have been made!<br /><br />Re: "The unfortunate players who participated in the unsuccessful 3rd down were brutalized by the WPA numbers, and players who converted the 4th down were rewarded with career-making WPA."<br /><br />Does this mean you'll retroactively change the WPA for players from previous seasons?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77733692884042243272013-12-05T10:05:43.869-05:002013-12-05T10:05:43.869-05:00Does the new WP model take timeouts remaining into...Does the new WP model take timeouts remaining into account? For a team trailing late in a game, each timeout remaining can act as an additional ~33 seconds of playing time (40 second play clock - 7 second play duration). For example, a team trailing and on defense facing 3rd down with 1:00 to play and no time outs, is in a similar game state to that same team with 1 time out remaining and ~27 seconds left to play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87659353885863017222013-12-05T09:33:17.762-05:002013-12-05T09:33:17.762-05:00Thank you so much! I've been waiting for this ...Thank you so much! I've been waiting for this kind of upgrade!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34662235015949295602013-12-05T09:32:34.111-05:002013-12-05T09:32:34.111-05:00Awesome news, Brian. Those are all great updates....Awesome news, Brian. Those are all great updates.<br /><br />And I applaud you for being open and honest with the flaws of the old system (not that we'd expect anything differently from you).Chase Stuarthttp://www.footballperspective.comnoreply@blogger.com