tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6009469714481722346..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Air Yards 2011Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86846259253099432102013-04-24T12:57:02.372-04:002013-04-24T12:57:02.372-04:00I would like to see a stat that shows a QBs-AY in ...I would like to see a stat that shows a QBs-AY in a direct ratio to his attempts.<br />i.e. <br />minus 5 to 0 AY = 7% of total attempts<br />...........0 to 10 AY = 43% of total attempts<br />.........11 to 20 AY =28% of total attempts<br />.........21 to 30 AY =16% of total attempts<br />.........31 to 40 AY = 4% of total attempts<br />.........41 to 50 AY = 2% of total attempts<br />.........51 and over AY=0% of total attempts<br />then we could see who is airing out the ball instead of dumping it offHapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420667755856142017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88427936696693460202012-10-09T20:39:37.517-04:002012-10-09T20:39:37.517-04:00Ty for the stats and it really let's you see w...Ty for the stats and it really let's you see who is how good, well gives an idea I know there are a lot of varibles but I love the stats keep them coming.<br /><br />How bout those cowboysAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24510197650982865862012-04-07T13:47:47.163-04:002012-04-07T13:47:47.163-04:00QBs can contribute to YAC in two ways: by making g...QBs can contribute to YAC in two ways: by making good decisions about which receiver to throw to, and by throwing accurate passes that can be caught in stride. So completely disregarding YAC in their stats may be as unfair as including it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29821600581784207972012-02-14T15:13:40.857-05:002012-02-14T15:13:40.857-05:00Air yards do seem like a more accurate way to meas...Air yards do seem like a more accurate way to measure QBs' skill & true contribution than YPA. <br /><br />However, I'm a little surprised by where Tom Brady ranks. <br /><br />It is possible that he has the actual ability to throw more air yards per pass, but knowing that his receivers, while not exceptionally speedy, are great at churning out YAC (especially Welker), he intentionally holds back, throwing more high-percentage dart passes and letting his receivers get the yards. Strategic reasons.<br /><br />Going further, QBs' air yards could be affected by the type of wide receivers they throw to (e.g. deep threats vs. possession-type receivers.. which could be why Eli has such high air yards- all of his top 3 WRs belong to the former category).<br /><br />I'd say a good way to find out more is comparing QBs' air yards when they or their top receivers change teams. <br /><br />Brian, what do you think?Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-41796702001325779662012-02-08T09:08:00.067-05:002012-02-08T09:08:00.067-05:00I think this just indicates that Brady doesn't...I think this just indicates that Brady doesn't go up field as much and may be more of a systems QB than ESPN may like us to think. It may also suggest that Welker's ability to gain yards after a catch, and Gronk's ability to run someone over and get 10 more yards are undervalued.<br /><br />Brady is extremely accurate on short stuff, and the system has been designed to suit his strengths (as offenses should be) but he may not be as great a pure passer as he gets credit for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24694902319990214912012-02-08T02:04:28.574-05:002012-02-08T02:04:28.574-05:00http://bayaniflores.blogspot.com/2011/11/overrated...http://bayaniflores.blogspot.com/2011/11/overrated-tom-brady-and-giselle.htmlSemifadedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15851446195306227151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4964614011954188182012-02-05T14:29:06.277-05:002012-02-05T14:29:06.277-05:00Dave, that is one of the most transparently poor c...Dave, that is one of the most transparently poor comments I've read in a long time. Congratulations.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5915932461189005132012-02-05T09:05:06.092-05:002012-02-05T09:05:06.092-05:00Expanding on "The Legend"'s thoughts...Expanding on "The Legend"'s thoughts, I don't see why this statistic is useful. Air Yards appears to simply measure 2 things: 1) the propensity of a QB to throw deep as opposed to short/intermediate; and 2) the accuracy of a QB's deep balls.<br /><br />What air yards seems to ignore completely is a QB (or scheme)'s propensity to throw short/intermediate passes, and his accuracy on those short/intermediate passes. After all, a lot of YAC is about the QB's ability to hit the receiver in stride, or to throw the ball to a space where the WR can make YAC (something Brady and Eli seem to be exceptionally good at).<br /><br />Arguably, this stat completely ignores that fact, which is why it is at such odds with all other conventional and advanced statistical measures of QB performance.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07596109393836361320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1545826075892110782012-02-03T18:06:46.551-05:002012-02-03T18:06:46.551-05:00I think I have to agree with Anon here that as muc...I think I have to agree with Anon here that as much as we would expect YAC to be partially or completely dependent on the QB, it seems to be almost entirely a result of the receiver.<br /><br />It may be true that a more accurate QB leads to more YAC, but the signal is drowned out because that only has an affect on a small number of plays. After all, how often is a receiver so open that he just needs a clean catch and not a broken tackle or to outrun a defender before making a big gain?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49939354618736585242012-02-03T16:47:06.705-05:002012-02-03T16:47:06.705-05:00TheLegend,
If you actually read the articles here...TheLegend,<br /><br />If you actually read the articles here, you'd know that the year-to-year correlation of receivers' YAC numbers are much higher than QBs', which are tiny. It clearly shows that QBs don't control YAC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49671383967172629002012-02-03T05:34:55.245-05:002012-02-03T05:34:55.245-05:00Just a quick comparison with football or soccer if...Just a quick comparison with football or soccer if you like.Every player gets a chance to pass the ball and they have fairly similar associated stats such as completion rates.But the players who attract a premium in the transfer market are the ones who can consistently release their colleagues into space.It's a two way process,the attacker makes a run,the passer spots him from all the other passing options and completes the pass so it reaches it's intended target.<br /><br />I'd be surprised if something similar wasn't going on with yac,quarterbacks and receivers.Tayhttp://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70150232473374187962012-02-02T13:42:26.024-05:002012-02-02T13:42:26.024-05:00If you're gonna take a shot at somebody, at le...If you're gonna take a shot at somebody, at least do it in the form of a complete thought (and preferably not anonymously). But to answer your question, no, this is not my first time on the site.<br /><br />I'm just saying that I don't get what we're supposed to learn from this... which seems to be the same thing a bunch of other people are saying...<br /><br />If my opinion is so invalid, I'd be perfectly happy to have someone explain why and what it is that I'm missing about this set of stats.TheLegendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16888797499597775199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24556888662154011552012-02-02T01:36:30.857-05:002012-02-02T01:36:30.857-05:00The thinking here makes sense, and I'm sure th...The thinking here makes sense, and I'm sure there's some value to be gleaned from this stat. But part of Air Yards is elective, too. If you have good YAC receivers, it might be a smarter thing to do to dump the ball off to Ray Rice than to try to squeeze it through a narrow window 15 yards downfield. The <i>preference</i> to do the former does not necessarily convey an <i>inability</i> to do the latter.<br /><br />Is this stat available for the 2009 and 2010 seasons also? I see it for '06, '07, '08, and '11, but not those two years.Dave Archibaldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05939754767057460853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73819700228734752212012-01-31T21:10:50.403-05:002012-01-31T21:10:50.403-05:00I think one thing this stat allows us to do is sor...I think one thing this stat allows us to do is sort out part-time QB's and younger QB's. In other words, the average seems to be between 52% & 56%; so if a QB is outside of this range, either he throws a lot of bombs (if he's above) or his receivers stink. If he's below, his stats are probably inflated by speedy receiver X breaking a slant for an 80yd TD.<br />Another good idea was posted by "Alex" comparing Rodgers with Brees. If you separate out the RB's, you can see how much the QB throws the ball down the field, and who is better at it. Rare is the throw to the RB who is further than ~5yds downfield.<br />Another interesting idea, if you have the data to do it with--cap all YAC at 10 yds, then sort by passing yds. In other words, 10 yds after he caught the ball, anything else gained is probably 100% result of a receiver's speed and/or breaking tackles. But those first few YAC have something to do with the QB's ability to hit him in stride or on time, where he can lunge forward for a couple of yards.<br />In other words, it's not the QB's fault that his receivers can break tackles (Gronk), have sprinter speed (Cruz, Julio Jones), or have good moves (Sproles). Nor is it his fault that he threw a ~10 yd pass on his 20 that was taken to the house, instead of completing "normal" passes down to the opponent's 20 when his receiver then did the same thing as before--there just wasn't any more field to accumulate YAC.<br />I think this is a good stat, but it doesn't tell us much.Josephnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1250568582045261572012-01-31T16:13:31.995-05:002012-01-31T16:13:31.995-05:00AirYards% is probably mostly a scheme-dependent st...AirYards% is probably mostly a scheme-dependent stat, but it could be very useful if it is consistent for a QB playing in the same scheme from year-to-year. We could then expect a QB with a stretch of unusually low AirYards% to regress to the mean in future games. This was probably the case for Curtis Painter, whose early-season passing stats were inflated by huge YAC before returning to normal.BPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73586302015543079212012-01-31T08:18:35.873-05:002012-01-31T08:18:35.873-05:00Interesting stat for discussion, but it is much li...Interesting stat for discussion, but it is much like yards per completion. 40 years ago the yards per completion were phenomenal because of the style of football played then. This stat is more of an indicator of style than QB play. Brady throws quite a few screens. Brees throws a more equal combination. Not many throw it down field while the pocket is collapsing. A break down of completion % (5, 15, 25, and 40 yards)is far more appropriate to compare QB play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25916062409557586292012-01-30T21:01:00.386-05:002012-01-30T21:01:00.386-05:00@thelegend
"My experience as a player and a ...@thelegend<br /><br />"My experience as a player and a fan leads me to believe that a QBs ability to throw precision passes has as more or more to do with the amount of YAC gained as any other factor."<br /><br />And this is why "your experience as a fan" is not a valid argument. First time visiting the site?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-8692205845291484702012-01-30T19:09:39.243-05:002012-01-30T19:09:39.243-05:00Interesting to see Orlovsky and Painter on opposit...Interesting to see Orlovsky and Painter on opposite ends of the scale, with the same system and the same personnel.<br /><br />I've had the arguments on the community end of the site and I don't have the time to re-hash here, but I do put a lot of stock in this stat.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24797050252498897562012-01-30T16:44:12.026-05:002012-01-30T16:44:12.026-05:00I can't help but notice that the top 9 on this...I can't help but notice that the top 9 on this list play in very aggressive vertical offenses... I'm not really sure what this is supposed to tell us about a QB others than how far he can huck it and how often he's asked to.TheLegendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16888797499597775199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64310304165079744582012-01-30T16:35:54.342-05:002012-01-30T16:35:54.342-05:00Shenanigans. The only way I see to learn anything ...Shenanigans. The only way I see to learn anything about a QB from this chart is sorting by AY% from lowest to highest.<br /><br />I'd argue that the difference between NFL quarterbacks has very little to do with how far or how often they can huck it down the field, and much more to do with their ability to hit a receiver in stride, throw a receiver open, etc.<br /><br />My experience as a player and a fan leads me to believe that a QBs ability to throw precision passes has as more or more to do with the amount of YAC gained as any other factor. I'd be curious to see how Steve Young, Kurt Warner or other great QBs from elite 90s style west coast offenses would stack up here.TheLegendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16888797499597775199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18896706687034616602012-01-30T14:35:47.372-05:002012-01-30T14:35:47.372-05:00Brian:
Inspired by your Air Yards statistic, I ca...Brian:<br /><br />Inspired by your Air Yards statistic, I came up with a statistic I call "QB Yard Credits per Snap", which is essentially Air Yards + Rushing Yards - Sack Yards - 30(Turnovers) / Snaps Played. It is meant to identify the number of yards that one can credit directly to the Quarterback, taking into account any yards he may have cost them by taking a sack or turning the ball over. <br /><br />Yesterday, using Yahoo Sports YAC statistics, I calculated the QBYC for the post 1998 careers of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Brett Favre.<br /><br />The NFL average this season for all QBs was 1.32 QBYC per snap. In 4864 career snaps, Aaron Rodgers a QBYC average of 2.08 yards. Peyton Manning has a QBYC of 1.98 yards in 12752 snaps, Tom Brady has a QBYC average of 1.53 yards in 8891 snaps, and Brett Favre has a QBYC average of 1.31 yards in 12524 post-1998 snaps.<br /><br />So, by this measure, Aaron Rodgers has been the most valuable of the 4, and this holds for the postseason also. Rodgers QBYC actually improves in postseason to 2.18 yards in 375 snaps, Manning is again second with a QBYC of 1.82 in 1096 snaps, Brady is again third with a shockingly low QBYC of 1.29 in 1055 snaps, and Favre again brings up the rear with a 1.22 in 513 post-1998 postseason snaps.<br /><br />I want to calculate Brees and Eli Manning in the near future.Ty Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00768414507738887416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11059331814679448092012-01-30T11:56:39.809-05:002012-01-30T11:56:39.809-05:00ESPN doesn't have passes broken out by QB-to-r...ESPN doesn't have passes broken out by QB-to-receiver, so this is team total and mixes in some of Chase Daniel and Matt Flynn. But...<br /><br />NO attempted 197 passes to Sproles, Thomas, Collins, and Ingram in the regular season for 1231 yards. According to ESPN, 1265 of those were yards after the catch. Green Bay attempted 91 passes to Grant, Starks, Kuhn, and Saine for 630 yards, with 702 being YAC. In the rest of their passes, GB had 4531 yards against 1646 YAC on 461 attempts and NO had 4274 yards with 1181 YAC on 465 attempts. <br /><br />If AirYPA is just (total-YAC)/attempts, on non-RB throws GB had 6.26 AirYPA and NO had 6.65 AirYPA. Perhaps Brees isn't so far behind Rodgers?Alexhttp://sportskeptic.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62307517268189097312012-01-30T10:25:13.957-05:002012-01-30T10:25:13.957-05:00Which is why he refereed to it as AirYPA...Which is why he refereed to it as AirYPA...Joshua Northeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39989864220774402392012-01-30T06:38:13.010-05:002012-01-30T06:38:13.010-05:00AYPA is often adjusted yards per attempt, which fo...AYPA is often adjusted yards per attempt, which folds touchdowns and interceptions into the normal Y/A numbers.MattieShoeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08699019944787315876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31298139383044240152012-01-30T05:37:19.705-05:002012-01-30T05:37:19.705-05:00One way of looking at Moore's figures is that ...One way of looking at Moore's figures is that he's getting hardly any yac for his completed air yards,either though his receivers not breaking free or him not leading them into open field.<br /><br />A community post looked at the relationship between yac and air yards here<br /><br />http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/yac-may-be-quarterbacking-skill.html<br /><br />and if you plug Moore's numbers in,the average QB throwing his amount of air yards should be getting about 4.5 yards of yac.He's getting half a yard less.<br /><br />Manning,by contrast who throws about the same air yards as Moore is getting almost a yard and a half more yac than you'd expect from an average QB/WRs combination.<br /><br />Brady similarly out runs the average expected yac for his air yards by around a yard and a half per attempt.<br /><br />Should make for an interesting game on Sunday.Tayhttp://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com