tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6016039870664164491..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Playoff Projections - Week 14Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33023597465244259322013-12-12T23:09:44.187-05:002013-12-12T23:09:44.187-05:00"are you going to be able to correct that?&qu..."are you going to be able to correct that?"<br /><br />I don't follow what you are asking. There was no calculation error. The model thinks the Lions are a pretty good team because they are doing well in the efficiency stats that the model tracks.<br /><br />If you have an issue with the methodology for some reason, you are welcome to download the app and adjust the win probability numbers to your liking.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08342283313661814313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31863790177156773092013-12-12T19:32:40.326-05:002013-12-12T19:32:40.326-05:00"This might be different than your gut becaus..."This might be different than your gut because the model has the Lions as the 8th best team in the league (better than New England, for example)."<br /><br /><br />are you going to be able to correct that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59838162324590104592013-12-12T14:53:48.711-05:002013-12-12T14:53:48.711-05:00thanks for the info Rob.thanks for the info Rob.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47764623513105284492013-12-12T13:43:15.270-05:002013-12-12T13:43:15.270-05:00Yes, the model says they have a 32% chance of winn...Yes, the model says they have a 32% chance of winning out. The probabilities are 79% vs. BAL, 66% vs. NYG, and 61% @ MIN. 0.79*0.66*0.61 = 0.32.<br /><br />This might be different than your gut because the model has the Lions as the 8th best team in the league (better than New England, for example).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08342283313661814313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67220107987456925002013-12-12T12:53:57.728-05:002013-12-12T12:53:57.728-05:00Lions have a 32% chance of winning all three games...Lions have a 32% chance of winning all three games?<br /><br />That seems extremely high, since 60% favoured in each game only gives them a 21% chance. Frankly, i'd give them a 7/13 chance of winning each particular game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com