tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6078316432781299105..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Success CountUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7442996777125996962011-09-25T15:36:18.729-04:002011-09-25T15:36:18.729-04:00Looking for the Titans to pull a big upset against...Looking for the Titans to pull a big upset against Broncos. <br /><br />http://www.facebook.com/pages/Football-Pool-Picks/248330175202447DYhttp://www.facebook.com/pages/Football-Pool-Picks/248330175202447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27754545186033995972011-09-15T07:18:45.313-04:002011-09-15T07:18:45.313-04:00I want to know how are the most succesful running ...I want to know how are the most succesful running backs! <br /><br />SC, +EPA, +WPA for RBs!Samponoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82392010093823334502011-09-14T16:32:25.095-04:002011-09-14T16:32:25.095-04:00Oh yeah. Oops. New to the site, still learning.Oh yeah. Oops. New to the site, still learning.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4523033573658830642011-09-14T16:25:49.302-04:002011-09-14T16:25:49.302-04:00That's what +EPA does.That's what +EPA does.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23985342945052432792011-09-14T15:43:08.371-04:002011-09-14T15:43:08.371-04:00Good point, but to go even further then maybe SC s...Good point, but to go even further then maybe SC should be weighted, i.e. Interception worth more than a pass defended. Just a thought.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78432051989532936742011-09-14T15:04:30.737-04:002011-09-14T15:04:30.737-04:00Couldn't agree more. But that stuff just isn&#...Couldn't agree more. But that stuff just isn't in the play descriptions we get. On the other hand, he kinda-sorta is penalized by SC for blowing what would otherwise be a success, because he doesn't get a 'success' for that play.<br /><br />(Actually a muffed int would probably go down as a 'pass defended' and would be a success, as it should be depending on your point of view.)Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45074893004213937612011-09-14T14:59:10.389-04:002011-09-14T14:59:10.389-04:00What about when a player blows a play though, like...What about when a player blows a play though, like say a interception attempt that was thrown right at the defender who simply muffs the play and misses the the catch. He should be penalized for that.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45029663285349741252011-09-14T13:01:56.780-04:002011-09-14T13:01:56.780-04:00@Dave B. & James:
I know that Brian doesn'...@Dave B. & James:<br />I know that Brian doesn't agree with everything that Football Outsiders does, but what your asking for sounds like seasonal DVOA for individual "skill players." They also have a minimum number of plays for a player to be ranked (iirc, 200 passes for QB's, 100 carries for RB's, and 50 targets for receivers), thus culling out the "situational" guys. Although I don't believe I've ever seen it, I believe they also rank those players players who get between 50% to 99% of those baselines in a different group, enabling you to compare situational players/backups to each other--with the "small sample size" caveat.<br />It's not the same as WPA or EPA, but it's something.Josephnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-68570897052866424812011-09-14T10:27:44.169-04:002011-09-14T10:27:44.169-04:00I second the idea to get a play-by-play grid that ...I second the idea to get a play-by-play grid that shows all of the plays and the changes in WP. I would love to sort the grid by both the absolute value of the change and the net value to see which plays broke open games, in total and for my team.Ian Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42045615093625272912011-09-14T09:41:20.903-04:002011-09-14T09:41:20.903-04:00Good suggestions. If I had the time, I'd do it...Good suggestions. If I had the time, I'd do it all! I'll get there eventually.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75025895497258511962011-09-14T08:29:00.631-04:002011-09-14T08:29:00.631-04:00On a completely different topic, would it be possi...On a completely different topic, would it be possible to get a play-by-play tab on the game pages that include the WPA and EPA numbers? I know you can scroll over the chart and get some of the numbers but it's hard to get all of the plays, especially towards the ends of games.<br /><br />It'd also be really cool if you could sort the plays by the player involved and see if one play killed them or they stunk it up the whole game.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79865284604605822442011-09-14T08:25:22.253-04:002011-09-14T08:25:22.253-04:00I'm thinking along the same lines as Dave. I w...I'm thinking along the same lines as Dave. I was wondering if there was a way to compared a runningback's results versus league average results on a play-by-play basis.<br /><br />Piggybacking Dave's example, if the short yardage RB was successful on those plays 70% of the time, then he'd be +10%. The opposite situation would be a draw play on third and long, the RB's success rate is going to be way lower but it doesn't really tell you how he does compared to average.<br /><br />Sample size would be a big problem, especially at the extremes, and it would take quite a bit of coding and parsing, but I think it would be worthwhile to see the results. Obviously 1st and 10 would be the easiest to compare due to sheer numbers.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51537133037043072962011-09-14T02:07:01.146-04:002011-09-14T02:07:01.146-04:00I'm not sure success rate doesn't come wit...I'm not sure success rate doesn't come with a lot of noise from the situational sage of the player. Specifically for RB'S, WR's and TE's. Success rate over average might tell you something more. Take the theoretical RB that only comes in on short yardage 2yards or less to go. On an average team his success rate would be 60%.<br /><br />I like the success rate stats for teams and QB's but find it marginally useful for skill players. RB's are hard to compare as well since their receiving and rushing success rates are lumped togetherDave Bnoreply@blogger.com