tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6121546340575380055..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): No Man's LandUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27181077321608666942008-12-09T20:44:00.000-05:002008-12-09T20:44:00.000-05:00Jim A-Nope, no bias in the data. For between the 3...Jim A-Nope, no bias in the data. For between the 31 and 40 yd-lines, the avg field position for 4th down and every to go distance up through 4th and 20 is the 35.6, with almost no variation.<BR/><BR/>So I bet you're right--there's some irrational effect pushing coaches to try the field goal more often with shorter to go distances given equal field positions.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87080993138042324432008-12-09T09:53:00.000-05:002008-12-09T09:53:00.000-05:00Interesting. Sort of like an impulse that says "w...Interesting. Sort of like an impulse that says "we came so close to getting a 1st down--we need to come away with some points."<BR/><BR/>But maybe there is some bias in the data. Perhaps 4th and 1s tend to happen closer to the 30 than the 40 for some reason. I doubt that's the case, but it could explain the difference. I can dig a little deeper to see.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88044881127546893142008-12-09T09:04:00.000-05:002008-12-09T09:04:00.000-05:00This data is mostly predictable, but there's somet...This data is mostly predictable, but there's something fascinating about the 31-40 yardline play selection bars. Once a coach decides not to go for it, the decision to attempt a FG vs. punt appears to be dependent on how many yards to go. On 4th-and-1, teams kick a FG slightly more often than punt. On 4th-and-2, teams punt slightly more often than kick a FG. On 4th-and-3 and 4th-and-4, teams punt much more often than attempt the FG.<BR/><BR/>Unless there's some bias in the field position data, this doesn't seem to be a rational decision. Perhaps there's a psychological effect of being reluctant to punt on 4th-and-short that's driving these numbers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com