tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6207292816958441940..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): When to Intentionally Allow a Touchdown, Part 5Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31855251783161664382013-04-24T11:42:48.865-04:002013-04-24T11:42:48.865-04:00The one thing that really bothers me in the analys...The one thing that really bothers me in the analysis is that of the probability of the FGA. <br /><br />For there seems to be no allowance for the effective range of a kicker or consideration that the decision to convert or kick within 2-3 yards of the ER will slew. <br /><br />Muddying the waters even more so is the difficulty around the Def38 having to decide on 4th Down whether to attempt the conversion, punt or FGA.<br /><br />On or within the Def5 the expectancy is that the FGA will be converted .995 of the time but the true probability is again slewed because of the score/field position.<br /><br />The most reliable probabilities will therefore probably fall within the range Def6-35, plus or minus, and it is difficult to get a true reflection due to limited data even when a FGA is attempted close to the end of a half or OT let alone a critical one with various permutations from leading by six to trailing by three specifically near the end of Q4.<br /><br />Brian - can you revisit the data assuming the FGA has to taken from up to five yards closer than the raw data presumes, moderated of course in the range Def6-10, and/or analyse critical FGA decisions inside the LFM on a rolling basis for the last 10 seasons in +6 to -3 situations.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00395061346300145292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66793899298588192312013-01-03T12:48:44.273-05:002013-01-03T12:48:44.273-05:00I don't know if Belichick's decision to de...I don't know if Belichick's decision to delay using timeout #2 was necessarily a mistake. I think he concluded (and rightly so) that if he did take that timeout, Tom Coughlin would surely have the time to tell all of his players deliberately not to score. By getting the next play to occur as soon as possible, there was a higher likelihood that the Giants would make the wrong move and score.<br /><br />When he finally DID call that timeout, there was no other choice, time was too low. He had to give them time to discuss it which, sure enough, they did. Bradshaw was told specifically NOT to score, but fell into the endzone anyways for who-knows-what-reason.Zipple41noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64854412819470689952012-12-17T15:20:17.836-05:002012-12-17T15:20:17.836-05:00Brian,
Thanks ... Really enjoy this analysis. I ...Brian,<br /><br />Thanks ... Really enjoy this analysis. I recall in the Giants/Pats Super Bowl, that when the Giants got the ball back in the closing moments, recognizing Eli's track record with 4th qtr drives - I was thinking that at that moment, the Pats should take some outrageous risks... All out blitzes, anything to force the issue. Not exactly giving up a TD, but recognizing that you have to kill the drive immediately or give up the TD immediately. Either way Brady gets the ball with enough time to either win the game or end the game. So, yeah, Belicek intentionally gave up the TD, but I felt he could have taken a more stealthy approach to getting the ball back sooner. Instead, he gave up the TD too late.Ken R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13086158597256834776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32098947063059381372012-12-13T16:51:50.143-05:002012-12-13T16:51:50.143-05:00Oh yeah. I remember that. I think I linked to it a...Oh yeah. I remember that. I think I linked to it a couple years ago.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81634392177058051652012-12-13T12:50:23.812-05:002012-12-13T12:50:23.812-05:00In the 1994 Caribbean Cup soccer championship, a m...In the 1994 Caribbean Cup soccer championship, a match between Barbados and Grenada saw both teams intentionally score on their own goal due to a quirky rule that determined which team would advance. Google it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13977360980577683922012-12-13T10:07:02.927-05:002012-12-13T10:07:02.927-05:00I don't understand why the anonymous (3 commen...I don't understand why the anonymous (3 comments above) disagrees with me. The comment explains a bunch of reasons why bball and football situations are *not* analogous, which was my point. Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51202209169524434942012-12-13T07:43:34.164-05:002012-12-13T07:43:34.164-05:00I can think of two slightly similar situations in ...I can think of two slightly similar situations in rugby competitions where there are bonus points for scoring 4 tries in addition to the 4 points you get for winning a game.<br /><br />If a team has a big lead and has scored three tries and there is not much time left they would be better to allow the opposiiton to score to give them a chance to score a 4th try before the end of the game.<br /><br />A second scenario is where a team with a big lead that has scored its third try with little time left should not attempt a converison kick (worth 2 points but not always as easy as its american cousin the PAT) as that can take about 60 seconds. I once saw a teeam in this position (Munster vs Connacht in the Magners league on St. Stephen's day a few years ago.) Where I said to my sister that Munster should not attempt the conversion after their third try with about 2 minutes left as that was wasting time and they had a big lead although as they managed to score their 4th try in stoppage time it didint matter but it could have.<br /><br />Obviously this is maximising the schance of getting a bonus point as the game is won in this scenario but it is an area where conceding points or forgoing the opportunity to score could be to a team's overall advantage<br /><br />James<br />James Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52671665042704308402012-12-13T03:35:01.499-05:002012-12-13T03:35:01.499-05:00In basketball, if the scoring environment is high ...In basketball, if the scoring environment is high enough, a team up by one point, on defense with little time remaining, could have incentive to foul and risk giving up the lead to get the last shot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50550163975928012482012-12-13T03:09:52.144-05:002012-12-13T03:09:52.144-05:00Disagree with your disagreement regarding basketba...Disagree with your disagreement regarding basketball. This 'major score' distinction is not relevant.<br /><br />in football you cannot make a team kick a fg, but you can avoid tackling and thus give them a TD. If you could force them to kick the field goal on 2nd down on the 20 with 60 seconds left, you would.<br /><br />It is identical to basketball where the defense trades points to get possession. In both cases, time is the enemy and is what is addressed.<br /><br /><br />the fact that it is "a major score" doesn't matter. It is only a 'major score' because that is the only one the defense can surrender. In both football and basketball, the defense gives up points for possession. <br /><br />What IS different, is that in football, you give the points when you are leading. That almost never happens in basketball. And the reason for that is because of the near certainty of a short FG in football.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45890659400516531102012-12-12T22:26:37.094-05:002012-12-12T22:26:37.094-05:00Fantastic analysis. It's cool to see studies ...Fantastic analysis. It's cool to see studies like this push the sport forward (eventually).Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16021614663280572002012-12-12T21:51:06.229-05:002012-12-12T21:51:06.229-05:00Re: basketball. Fouling to get the ball back is no...Re: basketball. Fouling to get the ball back is not a "major score." It's not like giving up a 3-pointer. It's like giving up a FG to try to get your own TD.<br /><br />Thank you for all the great criticisms and comments. A lot to digest and this analysis is only the beginning. More work to be done.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73990952344270675472012-12-12T17:55:51.825-05:002012-12-12T17:55:51.825-05:00"Of course, the major "flaw" in thi..."Of course, the major "flaw" in this analysis is that the defense does not have the power to give up an intentional TD. They can offer it, but they cannot force it."<br /><br />Is there a rule against a defense carrying a ball carrier into the end zone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5208535240651917902012-12-12T16:39:04.151-05:002012-12-12T16:39:04.151-05:00Don't know about Aussie rules football, but th...Don't know about Aussie rules football, but this strategy wouldn't work in rugby. In rugby, the team that gets scored upon has to "kick-off," and has a relatively low chance of recovering the kickoff. Also, it's quite a bit harder to willfully score a try in rugby--there's no equivalent of throwing the ball deep down the field.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63089188447242783742012-12-12T16:16:47.426-05:002012-12-12T16:16:47.426-05:00Anonymous, with 50s left and the defense out of ti...Anonymous, with 50s left and the defense out of timeouts, the offense really only needs to run one more play. They bring out the fieldgoal unit, wait till the last second, and kick. If they're dumb enough to run a play then by all means, let them score, but we're assuming they will only run one play if they can. If there's a few seconds left, they can onside kick to run out the clock. Or go offside on the kickoff, if you're Wisconsin a few years ago.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02178230449052059046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9929375671822435472012-12-12T16:08:46.895-05:002012-12-12T16:08:46.895-05:00Agree with Mark M, this would likely only happen i...Agree with Mark M, this would likely only happen in a game where you score in very different multiples. Anyone know if analogous situations occur in rugby or Aussie rules?<br /><br />Leading by three in basketball, some coaches foul before the 3pt shot, but that's not the same since you're allowing a chance at fewer points, not more. Sometimes it's better to miss the free throw, but again, not quite the same.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02178230449052059046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-618666519107789192012-12-12T15:32:26.098-05:002012-12-12T15:32:26.098-05:00Depending on what you mean by 'major score'...Depending on what you mean by 'major score', some sacrifices in chess would probably qualify. Alexhttp://sportskeptic.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38965179511121265672012-12-12T15:18:07.937-05:002012-12-12T15:18:07.937-05:00since offenses obviously know this as well, and wi...since offenses obviously know this as well, and will likely try to stop the ball at the 1 yd line and kneel, it seems like in this situation that the ideal play by the defense would be to go with an 11 man blitz, and try to sack the handoff etc. <br /><br />do everything to push them back, and to knock the ball out, and if you don't, then give up the TD.<br /><br />Of course, the major "flaw" in this analysis is that the defense does not have the power to give up an intentional TD. They can offer it, but they cannot force it.<br /><br /><br />Just like the Giants did (or tried to do). It shows that the offense was aware of this situation before, and most certainly everyone is aware of it now since it happened in the SB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77279917430190713052012-12-12T14:38:40.035-05:002012-12-12T14:38:40.035-05:00ftr, in basketball just about every game does that...ftr, in basketball just about every game does that, forcing the offense to go to the foul line and get points, in order to get possession back.<br /><br />in baseball, the point is moot. It is also moot in hockey, lacrosse, etc, where scores are equal (1 point). <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81149437159585657612012-12-12T14:21:59.437-05:002012-12-12T14:21:59.437-05:00I am a bit confused by the conclusion. So when the...I am a bit confused by the conclusion. So when there is 51 seconds left or less, it is never acceptable for defense to "let opponent score"? this seems completely wrong and the exact opposite of reality. The opponent will simply run out the clock and win! <br /><br />Or are your chances so low of winning at that point that your odds are better of getting a fumble or turnover? or missed kick?! Down 2 or 3 I might buy that, but only down 1?! A TD and two point conversion can tie it and although odds are against you, it's a almost sure thing for opponent to just take a knee a few times and kick the fieldgoal. What am I missing? Am I reading the graph wrong?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88687802196465929962012-12-12T14:17:23.349-05:002012-12-12T14:17:23.349-05:00"This is why football is uniquely compelling...."This is why football is uniquely compelling. In what other sport would it be better to allow your opponent to achieve a major score? "<br />Auctions when the price gets above the value, or when the value relative to other future value is low enough where it reduces the capital to bid on other more favorable auctions.<br /><br />Or as some statisticians call it "winner's curse". You only can win the bid when no one else wants it, so you will be forced to bid high and "over pay" if the other teams are rational. This of course happens in every sport in terms of free agency but is less of an issue when there is no salery cap and a team has a huge payroll. Which of course then brings us to the concept of "moneyball" and how to do more with less with advance statistics and we come full circle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44289964234183070482012-12-12T14:05:16.264-05:002012-12-12T14:05:16.264-05:00"In what other sport would it be better to al..."In what other sport would it be better to allow your opponent to achieve a major score?"<br />Basketball is the first that comes to mind. But I guess only in cases where both offenses score at a high percentage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-20516981951955152352012-12-12T13:55:57.335-05:002012-12-12T13:55:57.335-05:00Very much like the analysis, but find the probabil...Very much like the analysis, but find the probability curve starting near 0% at 50s to be unrealistic. <br />Maybe I've watched too many Lion's games, some on offense, (depressingly) more on defense, where 50s seemed more than enough time to score from the 20.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6747893502534960812012-12-12T12:46:08.510-05:002012-12-12T12:46:08.510-05:00"In what other sport would it be better to al..."In what other sport would it be better to allow your opponent to achieve a major score?"<br /><br />You can also ask the reverse for the offense. In what other sport would you be in a worse situation by achieving a major score? I guess the answer would be any time-bounded game in which you score points in multiples and the person with 'possession' scores the majority of the time.<br /><br />I'm thinking of some kind of time-based darts match. Let's suppose you each alternately throw three darts each, the winner is the one with the most points after 10 minutes and you have to take all your throws within 30 seconds. If a player comes to the oche down by one point with 29 seconds left, he'll wait til the last moment before throwing. You'd much rather take all the time to score two points than score 100 pts and use only 10 seconds. If you're the player off throw, if there was some mechanism by which you could award your opponent 100 pts to get the throw back, you would use it.Mark Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00437341898224311426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52684068663213783482012-12-12T12:22:17.210-05:002012-12-12T12:22:17.210-05:00Great stuff, Brian. Any way you could add this to ...Great stuff, Brian. Any way you could add this to the win probability calculator? Maybe just at the bottom of the results saying "Allow the TD!!" if in that particular situation?Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49390670463726052982012-12-12T12:21:14.167-05:002012-12-12T12:21:14.167-05:00We're a long way from this state, but I wonder...We're a long way from this state, but I wonder: if coaches really start consistently playing evidence-based football, won't this be seen as a problem? Those Chinese badminton players were punished for letting opponents win in the Olympics, right? Although if they just task officials with awarding penalties for not putting up one's best effort, it becomes such a judgement call, and players will be taught to do a kabuki dance of apparently unimpeachable "effort" that isn't effort at all. You could get comical situations where both sides have to pretend to be trying, but the real struggle is in the opposite direction than what they are portraying. It could be amusing for a while but ultimately be ugly and bad for the game. Not sure how to fix it though!<br /><br />Something related that I've wondered about is when a team is down by 5 or 6 and driving in the last two minutes. So often I've seen teams I root for score the TD in this situation, but do so with still about a minute left. My instinctive feeling is "uh oh, I'm glad they scored but I wish they had taken a little longer to do it". I wonder if it's possible to model this situation mathematically or if it is too complex. Let's say for instance you're down by 6 and your opponent gets hit with a pass interference penalty in the end zone. So now you've got a first-and-goal at the one yard line, but there's a minute or two left. Your opponent has no timeouts. Couldn't it be worth the risk of not scoring at all to take a knee once, or even twice, before you try to punch it in? There are of course endless variations on this situation with different downs and distance, timeout status, and for that matter the strength of each team's offense and defense (goal line O/D going one way, and passing O/D the other way).SlackerInchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08275358994906136088noreply@blogger.com