tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7028970780667541355..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Weekly RoundupUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73356745670888812432009-01-16T22:40:00.000-05:002009-01-16T22:40:00.000-05:00I think Pacifist Viking is exactly right on the in...I think Pacifist Viking is exactly right on the interceptions correlation v causation issue, and that moreso than the running-winning correlation, this is still largely unappreciated in many quarters.<BR/><BR/>[] Logically, teams that are behind to begin with throw more often to catch up (especially as it gets late in the game), throw against Ds that are expecting it, thus throw "uphill" against aggressive pass rushes and DBs sitting on the pass ... and so throw more picks at a higher rate than teams that are winning. <BR/><BR/>[] Empirically one can see this in QB situational splits, as NFL stats show QBs have significantly higher passing ratings when playing ahead than behind. <BR/><BR/>E.g. from my clip file for 2006...<BR/><BR/>Tom Brady's passing rating when: <BR/>Ahead by 9-16 .... 136 <BR/>Ahead ............. 99 <BR/>Behind............. 67 <BR/>Behind by 9-16 .... 57 <BR/><BR/>Drew Brees, as MVP runner-up: <BR/><BR/>Ahead .............. 106 <BR/>Behind .............. 87 <BR/><BR/>Tony Romo: <BR/><BR/>Ahead .............. 121 <BR/>Behind .............. 87, etc.<BR/><BR/>So the quality of a team's defense can materially affect the quality of its QB's play and his rating -- another example of the QB getting both excessive credit and blame in a team game ... but I digress.<BR/><BR/>[] Anecdotally, I have the misfortune to be a long-time Jets fan, and Pennington 2007-2008 is a great example of all of the above.<BR/><BR/>2007: The Jets had a dreadful awful D during the first half of the season while CP was starting. Time and again he had the lead for most of the game but after the D collapsed in the second half, he spent the last minutes chucking uphill to try to come from behind. Time and again the game ended a loss after he threw a bad-looking pick.<BR/><BR/>Jets fans' reaction: "Killer pick after killer pick! Popgun with his noodle arm can never carry this team to a big win, especially from behind when you really need it". <BR/><BR/>So the guy was benched and run out of town and replaced with Favre, though career-wise CP had one the lowest pick rates in NFL history ... and replacing him, or <EM>anyone</EM> with Favre to reduce bad picks ... hey! ... but I digress again. <BR/><BR/>2008: Penny returns to near league-best pick rate with 7 in 16 games. <BR/><BR/>But then, in the playoffs against a much superior Ravens team, playing almost all the way from behind, he throws 4 in one game.<BR/><BR/>The Jets fans who had wanted to get rid of him say, "See, we were right! Popgun and his noodle arm can never beat a good team -- he lost that game by throwing 4 picks! How could they win when he did that?" CHFF would probably agree. <BR/><BR/>But I'd suspect there was some causation working the other way around. And that teams that don't recognize it can make personnel decisions that may leave them without a decent QB for years to come ... but enough digression.<BR/><BR/>This isn't to deny that "bad picks" are killers that cause a lot of losses, but ISTM picks could be sorted into three categories...<BR/><BR/>1) Meaningless, like hail marys in lost games, completely caused by being losing, not affecting the outcome. <BR/><BR/>2) Under duress but unfortunate -- such as while trying to come from behind playing "uphill". This is some on the QB, you don't want to throw them, they can bury a team's chances in a game. But the QB is under a handicap, and the team was probably going to lose anyhow, so it doesn't really cost the game.<BR/><BR/>3) True "killer", game-costing picks -- like Favre opening the season-ending Mia game deep-throwing 10 yards over an open receiver's head and following up with picks on a screen pass and 2-yard checkdown.<BR/><BR/>ISTM that an "ideal" passer rating would weight all these differently, and so might come to quite different conclusions than systems like the NFL's that treat all picks the same. And that with game logs and spreadsheets it might be getting practical to do, quantifying the cost of different kinds of picks. And that that could help keep teams from being left QB-less for years to come after running a good QB out of town for apparently making too many bad picks that really weren't so bad ... oh, but I digress again ... it's hard being a Jets fan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2431767500077240872009-01-16T20:37:00.000-05:002009-01-16T20:37:00.000-05:00Do you have a regular job, too, like 40 hrs/week? ...Do you have a regular job, too, like 40 hrs/week? If so, do you have more hours in a day than I do, how the hell do you do all of this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com