tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7317881521688658592..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Paying Free Agent RBsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66983671463761245002012-07-06T04:00:18.581-04:002012-07-06T04:00:18.581-04:00The 3 stats that really matter for running backs a...The 3 stats that really matter for running backs are:<br />1. The percentage of rushes the resulted in either a first down or a touchdown<br />2. The percentage of rushes that extended beyond three yards when there was more than 3 yards to go to get a first down or a touchdown even if the result was not a touchdown or first down.<br />3. The percentage of rushes that initially put you in field goal range even if the field goal was not attempted or was missed.<br /><br />You could also throw 15+ and 20+ gains in there too. I just hate seeing the yards per carry benchmarks used to judge RB effectiveness. That stat completely disregards the situations that RBs are put in throughout the course of a game/season/career.Caius Swopesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89576258445576790242012-06-27T21:48:04.781-04:002012-06-27T21:48:04.781-04:00New England has proven its a dime a dozen position...New England has proven its a dime a dozen position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26001139306350942212012-06-17T21:36:42.760-04:002012-06-17T21:36:42.760-04:00Miles-Thanks.Miles-Thanks.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45129963055498438782012-05-17T21:27:49.473-04:002012-05-17T21:27:49.473-04:00Yeah it's crazy. RBs aren't worth it. They...Yeah it's crazy. RBs aren't worth it. They don't do it! 3year average lifespanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80602890900634656842012-04-30T20:05:34.024-04:002012-04-30T20:05:34.024-04:00A runnigback may succeed in spite of or because of...A runnigback may succeed in spite of or because of his Oline and effectiveness in passing game.<br />A QB may success in spite of or because of his Oline<br />A QB may success in spite of or because of his Receivers<br />Very hard to separate some things based on stats alone, although stats can at least conclusively give you some details worth considering. stats like those at this site and at footballoutsiders.com do well to separate stats vs opponents in similar situations. But it still doesn't always work due to the great amount of variables and varience. Game tape and giving grades based upon various minor details certainly come into play. <br /><br />Additionally, you can't expect a completely efficient market since many players agents might not do this type of analysis, and you need a RB to make play action effective in passing game, and the synergy that comes when you have both. Teams will pay less if possible, but may wish to use draft picks and resources such as dollars elsewhere, and game plans and how RBs are used vary greatly. <br /><br />you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up 60 heads. Is that an anomoly? Were the 10 extra heads the result of "skill", "luck", the "coin flipper" or the "type of coin" What if 1000 people are flipping different types of coins with different weights, wind speed, in different locations with different rules on whether or not you can flip the coin. You can always draw upon correlations, but it does not imply causality. a player is on a winning team, but did he cause the win? Statistics will always be an inexact science. With that being said, in a game where everyone else plays by the same rules, statistics if often an excellent tool to get more value more often then not by making calculated decisions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6668429404038604682012-04-30T19:49:31.905-04:002012-04-30T19:49:31.905-04:00This is awesome. Now what is each draft choice wor...This is awesome. Now what is each draft choice worth on average? Although that may not be best measurement because you can replace a draft pick that misses by cutting him and starting over and teams may be willing to miss on 3 draft choices at a crucial position, particularly if they already have a starter. And even if they hit they made trade that player away for draft picks and start again like the packers did many times with Favre's backup... but it would be interesting if there was some type of analysis that could be done to determine how many draft picks it is worth giving up to trade for a given player. Like the most underpaid player. Seems like with a lot of number crunching and top tier analysis like you do here you could estimate who got the better of a particular trade, and what a particular player is worth in terms of draft picks to go and get someone already on a contract. But longevity also would have to play a role as a HB/QB who is 32/42 just can't really be worth trading for as much as that draft pick and selecting a rookie QB in terms of overall value that it adds (sum of the value per play times the amount of plays) as the rookie could potentially give you 10 years where as the old player may only get you 1 or 2 and may be regressing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58248074394349658652012-04-23T12:29:21.053-04:002012-04-23T12:29:21.053-04:00I have no idea how anyone can say that a running b...I have no idea how anyone can say that a running backs total yardage is just because of how many carries they get. That is basically saying that if you put any bum on the field full time and gave him the looks/touches of say a Ray Rice, he would put up 1800-2100 total yards just like Rice does very year.<br /><br />Maybe I am missing what the author was trying to say, but that is ridiculous.<br /><br />And while RB may be "overpaid" according to your metrics, every GM for...ever has continued to pay the stars at that position on a second contract. Every single time a star running back comes up for a deal after their rookie contract is up, they get paid. It was true in 1965 and it is still true in 2012.<br /><br />I am guessing every GM out there as far back as you can go knew somewhat what they are doing in that regard.<br /><br />Only exception was Marshall Faulk, and we saw how that worked out for Indy. And for St Louis. Here is a good article recapping that deal.<br /><br />http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=jc-faulkpoliantrade020511<br /><br />Notice the comments from Warner about Faulk's role in a "high flying passing attack", which some use today as an argument to devalue the running back position. All running back's are not created equal, especially the ones who can catch the ball out of the backfield and stay on the field for all 3 downs.<br /><br />Elite runners who get paid as such should be able to do it all. Most can't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75977984781425028172012-04-19T18:46:29.200-04:002012-04-19T18:46:29.200-04:00It is refreshing to see someone looking at stats t...It is refreshing to see someone looking at stats to try and garner information about various ideas. I have been trying to do it myself. Would you agree a top five running back is worth over 7 millions dollars?mondaymorningownerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17059115988853069291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75487006234893293742012-04-18T17:56:36.921-04:002012-04-18T17:56:36.921-04:00If I were a GM, I'd ask my RB if he were willi...If I were a GM, I'd ask my RB if he were willing to forego $1-3mm so I could use it to get him better linemen, which would improve his overall performance, and give him a chance to make a portion up in some kind of performance based bonus.<br /><br />Assuming the RB goes along with this scenario, he has a chance to not only make the same or more, but the chance to enhance revenue opportunities outside of the team (endorsements, etc.). Overall, it would be a net "win" for RB, Team, and Linemen.....assuming this model weren't utilized by every single team, thus negating its potential value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51450438170888890302012-04-11T18:07:02.264-04:002012-04-11T18:07:02.264-04:00all the good player are getting drafted not at the...all the good player are getting drafted not at there right place can someone please tell me whats going on here.<br />Angie davis<br />http://www.balltribe.com/toolbar/24256Angie Davishttp://www.balltribe.com/toolbar/24256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33751892835985648532012-04-11T16:31:35.149-04:002012-04-11T16:31:35.149-04:00A RB is paid by potential, and they keep getting d...A RB is paid by potential, and they keep getting drafted at lower and lower spots.Spencer Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04953274726491120600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10748070854512296922012-04-06T12:52:26.750-04:002012-04-06T12:52:26.750-04:00Brian-
Might check out
http://www.bloggingtheboys...Brian-<br />Might check out <br />http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2012/4/6/2910447/dallas-cowboys-key-to-2012-success-passer-rating-differential Similar vein to some of your older posts.<br />milesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72287205519684723692012-03-25T16:54:59.682-04:002012-03-25T16:54:59.682-04:00I've read that in baseball, playoff contention...I've read that in baseball, playoff contention/winning sells tickets. Superstars, notsomuch. But that was just chatter on a message forum and nothing I can verify.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12360737001639802752012-03-25T16:53:38.378-04:002012-03-25T16:53:38.378-04:00I completely agree. This is exactly why Ryan Gran...I completely agree. This is exactly why Ryan Grant had probably his best WPA/EPA year.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6880038313076075262012-03-23T15:13:14.445-04:002012-03-23T15:13:14.445-04:00This would probably provide some insight. However,...This would probably provide some insight. However, if you look at a team like Denver last year, the option threat of Tim Tebow is going to heavily affect the overall running game's production, even discarding his direct rushing yardage. <br /><br />Also, say Tom Brady is injured midway through the season and they have to start using Caleb Hainie as a starter (hypothetically, of course). I have no doubt in my mind that, even though you have not directly affected the O-line or RB options, their production will drop rather significantly, since teams no longer have to worry about defending the pass.<br /><br />My point is that we can twist the numbers and evaluate any combination of players we want, but the bottom line is that there are just too many variables to isolate any one aspect of the game and assign it a value that has much significant meaning.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13598392636728563705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47352598438200035752012-03-22T22:15:22.236-04:002012-03-22T22:15:22.236-04:00Sports players are just overpaid nowadays, and som...Sports players are just overpaid nowadays, and some just don't do well.AMLhttp://amlassassin.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69919229978044088092012-03-22T19:06:33.336-04:002012-03-22T19:06:33.336-04:00I wonder if you could do the same comparison using...I wonder if you could do the same comparison using the price tag for a RB plus the offensive line. That would give you offensive ground game production (in EPA and WPA) as a function of the whole investment in the running game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51295698746798907282012-03-21T14:40:48.073-04:002012-03-21T14:40:48.073-04:00Would you say these findings support the idea that...Would you say these findings support the idea that in order to get the best value, the Eagles should move quickly to re-sign LeSean McCoy to an extension before the season since he only has around 4,300 career yards at present? McCoy should surpass 6,000 yards by the end of the season and would appear to substantially increase his pay-grade once he reaches that threshold. McCoy is a young, dynamic, all-around workhorse back with high yards per carry and high yards per touch. No NFL RB has accumulated more EPA since 2010.>Redeem Teannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76999061434849691992012-03-18T18:13:54.595-04:002012-03-18T18:13:54.595-04:00If you're talking about retaining a star who s...If you're talking about retaining a star who sells many jersey's, then maybe this factors a small amount. But fame comes quickly with performance. Stars are born each season, sometimes within a few games. Fans are fickle and their attention shifts just as quickly. <br /><br />Based on this analysis, it seems most efficient to invest all of the offensive budget on QB and OL, hire unproven running backs and receivers, hope for breakout seasons, trade them for champ baileys in the off season, and repeat. XDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17563537339194365572012-03-15T14:14:25.192-04:002012-03-15T14:14:25.192-04:00Thoughts on the slew of $10-$20m/yr WR signings wi...Thoughts on the slew of $10-$20m/yr WR signings with $15-$60m guaranteed? Curious as to what sort of WR value analysis you've done in the past akin to what you've done here - Joe LandersJoe Landershttp://www.comcast.net/jlandersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52280330883114373452012-03-14T23:51:14.609-04:002012-03-14T23:51:14.609-04:00One question: Doesn't RB yards per carry decre...One question: Doesn't RB yards per carry decrease the more carries a running back gets in a game? Is it possible that higher paid RB's get more carries than lesser paid ones thus decreasing their yards per carry while still being better than the replacement level backup that takes their place? Made up example:<br /><br />Adrian Peterson: 7M salary for 300 carries at 4.1 YPC<br /><br />vs.<br /><br />Average Starter: 3M salary for 200 carries at 4.2 YPC<br />Average Backup: 1M salary for 100 carries at 3.0 YPC<br /><br />If this were the case, Peterson would look overpaid relative to the average starter according to YPC, but only because you are failing to account for the extra volume that Peterson covers the backups for playing. In a case like this it would follow that if Peterson's carries were decreased to 200, his YPC would rise to say 5, showing his superiority.<br /><br />Just my play at devil's advocate.Brendan Scolarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76111560325289626152012-03-14T16:10:29.683-04:002012-03-14T16:10:29.683-04:00Does anyone know if the "superstars sell tick...Does anyone know if the "superstars sell tickets" argument as actually mostly debunked?? Looking for an article, or something other than an anonymous poster posting something.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52046523780310187532012-03-11T15:36:55.968-04:002012-03-11T15:36:55.968-04:00Ditka wedded his fate to R.Williams. Worked out pr...Ditka wedded his fate to R.Williams. Worked out pretty well, didn't it?<br /><br />IMO RBs are overrated because of tradition (they used to mean a lot) and they still represent "what football is all about", getting hit often, getting dirty, etc. It's hard for people to let go of that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30957187080677185472012-03-11T00:40:22.139-05:002012-03-11T00:40:22.139-05:00Do you know where I could find an article on the &...Do you know where I could find an article on the "superstars sell tickets" angle? Google is pretty unhelpful, and I'm not very familiar with many baseball analysis sites.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5210177064079896052012-03-09T16:10:08.011-05:002012-03-09T16:10:08.011-05:00GMs could be paying running backs for something ot...GMs could be paying running backs for something other than on-field performance. Other than quarterback, running back is the top star position for fans and media attention. If a running back attracts sufficient attention in terms of season tickets sales, souvenir sales, or sufficient buzz at the owner's country club, then maybe there is value other than on the field. Maybe the real stat you should look at is how many GM's get fired within 2 years of signing a big-name running back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com