tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7322419750134036827..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Podcast Episode 10 - David RomerUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48495473793001873972013-11-28T06:35:27.551-05:002013-11-28T06:35:27.551-05:00About momentum; teams could make it a self-fulfill...About momentum; teams could make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Coaches who think that momentum is against them would get more conservative, wouldn't they, and since coaches usually err on the side of caution, thinking momentum is against you would make those errors worse.madsci64https://www.blogger.com/profile/15767757706996977368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49384353616167826962013-11-27T10:38:57.911-05:002013-11-27T10:38:57.911-05:00Finally, someone pointing out that the players are...Finally, someone pointing out that the players are professionals, and that we should their performance to be good under the extra marginal pressure of a close game.<br /><br />Romer's paper is probably the single most well-known work in NFL analytics. All of the guests so far have been amazing.NateTGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55608895647184249452013-11-26T17:58:15.276-05:002013-11-26T17:58:15.276-05:00Another fantastic podcast, thanks again for all th...Another fantastic podcast, thanks again for all the hard work. The tidbit about Belichick's belief in momentum was great and I am wondering how much it will effect his 'street credentials' around here...<br /><br />I thought it was interesting how Romer brought up the Massey-Thaler draft study especially when taken in conjunction with his observation that the NFL is set up to incentivize winning. With top draft picks being overvalued and late 1st-mid 2nd round draft picks having the most surplus value, does this explain why good teams tend to stay good? It would seem that playoff teams are the ones who are getting the lion's share of the best picks in the draft while the worst teams tend to get the less valuable picks. Perhaps there is another incentive inadvertently built into the draft that makes it worthwhile to NOT tank a bad season and keep trying to win in order to LOWER your pick in the draft.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com