tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8086017824639484529..comments2023-09-09T10:36:20.114-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week ThirteenUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48239007644878299262010-12-08T17:42:08.549-05:002010-12-08T17:42:08.549-05:00Apparently the unluckiest teams were also unlucky ...Apparently the unluckiest teams were also unlucky when the schedule came out. This table looks eerily similar to the "strength of schedule" list (SD at the top and NE at the bottom).JJBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10207257133625490532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35442640005772750782010-12-07T11:55:09.125-05:002010-12-07T11:55:09.125-05:00sorry, that should be 49.25%, not 48.75%sorry, that should be 49.25%, not 48.75%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24169317184803595872010-12-07T11:54:17.153-05:002010-12-07T11:54:17.153-05:00Two-point conversion success rate is around 45%. O...Two-point conversion success rate is around 45%. Obviously, some teams are above 45% and some are below. It's tough to gauge whether or not the Colts would fall above or below. EP attempts are successful 98.5% of the time, translating to a 48.75% win assuming 50/50 in overtime. If the Colts felt they had better than a 48.75% chance of making the two-point conversion...the math says go for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55057340664722587232010-12-05T19:58:45.656-05:002010-12-05T19:58:45.656-05:00Brian,
Today the Colts scored a touchdown with 29...Brian,<br /><br />Today the Colts scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left vs the Cowboys. With the PAT they tied the game virtually guaranteeing overtime. I assume prior to the overtime coin toss each team has a 50/50 chance of winning. But, what would the Colts win probability have been had they gone for 2 with 29 seconds left instead of going for overtime? Is the probability of success on a 2 point conversion under those circumstances less than 50% (or at least less than the chances of winning in overtime)? The Colts went on to lose in overtime.Ken R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13086158597256834776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3192833589045838212010-12-05T15:10:07.401-05:002010-12-05T15:10:07.401-05:00It could mean that for 25% of teams interceptions ...<em>It could mean that for 25% of teams interceptions are 100% skill, and for the rest of the teams they are 100% luck.</em><br /><br />It could be that the "natural" intereception rate for a team changes from year to year somehow too. On both O and D. The all-time record for fewest picks compared to the league average, IIRC, was Starr's 3 in 15 games (including the championship game) in 1966. But in the first two games of 1967 he threw 9. Figure that out. I can't, except that random events can occur in bunches.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6024087697925014182010-12-05T10:30:39.844-05:002010-12-05T10:30:39.844-05:00Wouldn't it make more sense to have the sign r...Wouldn't it make more sense to have the sign reversed on the GLUCK column?<br /><br />It just seems like, for instance, a team with 4 wins more than expected should be associated with a +4 rather than a -4.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5968211356393246402010-12-04T19:27:54.695-05:002010-12-04T19:27:54.695-05:00Brian - I did have a quick look at the idea that t...Brian - I did have a quick look at the idea that teams could trade off giving up passing yards to increase their interception chance, but I actually found a very slight negative correlation i.e. teams that intercepted the ball more gave up fewer yards per attempt. That doesn't square with the idea that a team can play a risk/reward game of that type, and was more along the lines of better defenses will intercept the ball more.<br /><br />Like you say, it could be the case that Atlanta specifically have such a risk/reward game going on and I haven't found anything to disprove that. But I've also found nothing to prove it either.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33070914124322125002010-12-04T17:32:39.293-05:002010-12-04T17:32:39.293-05:00PS Look at Atlanta at +4 games over expected. That...PS Look at Atlanta at +4 games over expected. That's just amazing to me. They are feasting on turnovers, and even though they beat GB last week, it's hard to imagine that kind of luck continuing. They have a substantial negative passing efficiency differential (6.2 net YPA offense and 7.0 net YPA allowed on defense). How a team like that is 9-2 is understandable but highly unlikely.<br /><br />But then it got me thinking. If interceptions are 25% skill and 75 luck%, that doesn't necessarily mean that for all teams and all QBs that interceptions are 25/75. It could mean that for 25% of teams interceptions are 100% skill, and for the rest of the teams they are 100% luck. Or the truth is somewhere in between.<br /><br />They <i>could</i> be playing for the interception on defense, trading away passing yards for opportunities to pick off the ball. But that just seems like it says 'easier said than done' written all over it.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13540802105560980282010-12-04T17:13:39.143-05:002010-12-04T17:13:39.143-05:00Romo, Kitna, BAL, PIT.Romo, Kitna, BAL, PIT.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-53864852040113928462010-12-04T17:02:55.796-05:002010-12-04T17:02:55.796-05:00I was gonna go Romo/Kitna/Pitt/Pitt
Was a 3 for 4...I was gonna go Romo/Kitna/Pitt/Pitt<br /><br />Was a 3 for 4?Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3254193365512084182010-12-04T14:41:07.717-05:002010-12-04T14:41:07.717-05:00The answer is, once unskilled Baltimorians could n...The answer is, once unskilled Baltimorians could no longer find menial work that paid well, too many of them entered a life of crime, including murdering their neighbors for pocket-change.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21768804028850800902010-12-04T14:33:29.100-05:002010-12-04T14:33:29.100-05:00James is 50% right -- but I'm not saying which...James is 50% right -- but I'm not saying which 50%!<br /><br />(Not yet, at least.)Carsonhttp://www.fangraphs.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7162543990611573552010-12-04T14:31:27.822-05:002010-12-04T14:31:27.822-05:00I'm gonna go 1 - Manning, 2 - Kitna, 3 - Pitts...I'm gonna go 1 - Manning, 2 - Kitna, 3 - Pittsburgh, and 4 - Pittsburgh.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36200906133273098342010-12-04T13:40:59.149-05:002010-12-04T13:40:59.149-05:00Only unemployed steelworkers and wannabe mathemati...Only unemployed steelworkers and wannabe mathematicians come from Baltimore.<br /><br />While Pisstburgh is the 'City of Sisterly Love'. This is why so many Stealers fans marry theirs.<br /><br />Happy Festivus to all and to all Good Afternoon!Borathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05801713391906994668noreply@blogger.com