tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8266125324556463408..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 11 [Corrected]Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24686396752107637782013-11-26T02:57:53.791-05:002013-11-26T02:57:53.791-05:00Mitch,
Seattle has had a fairly weak schedule and ...Mitch,<br />Seattle has had a fairly weak schedule and a number of close games against crappy teams (TB anyone?). Wilson has been good enough, but certainly not great. Soon they will play the 49ers in Candlestick, and the Saints will be no pushover, either. <br />The model had Carolina as very strong last year... right as they went on a midseason tear that has continued into this season. <br />Models that Brian Burke has referenced on this site show that only 1 in 4 years has the 'best' team in the NFL as the Superbowl winner. Variance happens good sir. We can both cherry-pick data but overall the system you seem to question does a better than average job of predicting outcomes.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81075355790485142272013-11-23T09:57:53.625-05:002013-11-23T09:57:53.625-05:00RE: Karl from Germany,
...RE: Karl from Germany, <br /> In regards to predicting future outcomes, the model does have some success and some failures.<br /><br />Of coarse one could point-out a few successes, one could do that using any model, even the worst model.<br /><br />Last year the model had Carolina top 5 team and they finished 7-9, certainly not a top 5 team.<br />This year the model had Carolina 12th when the should of been a top 5 team a few weeks back.<br />Being 12th was not a good indication of the quality of Carolina, they now are 7th, but should be top 5. They are better than Bengals and Packers even with Rodgers.<br /><br />And let's not forget last season the model said Ravens were not as good as their 9-2 record, all the Ravens did was win the Super Bowl.<br /><br />The model had Denver no.1 heading into the playoffs and the largest GWP of any playoff game was Denver over Baltimore. Not very predictive was it.Mitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54646890358493456852013-11-23T09:46:24.365-05:002013-11-23T09:46:24.365-05:00The big game this week the model based on GWP has ...The big game this week the model based on GWP has Denver -3 VS NE.<br /><br />The model did win last week's biggest difference between it's spread and the actual spread with the Eagles -3.5 VS Redskins.<br /><br />There's no big differences this week, the biggest being Bears -3, actual +1, 4 point difference.<br /><br />Cardinals -6.5, actual -2.5, another 4 point difference.Mitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12023109412421661252013-11-23T09:29:23.416-05:002013-11-23T09:29:23.416-05:00Seahawks still hands down the best team in the lea...Seahawks still hands down the best team in the league, this will be proven in the playoffs, barring injuries to any key players.<br /><br /><br />Parcels was a master motivator, that quote was meant as nothing more then a motivator to his team, it's not like he actual believed it.<br /><br /> Parcels was great for the media and fans in post game interviews, because of such things, mostly said to influence his teams, people make to big a deal of it.Mitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-869665307980972142013-11-21T21:33:44.194-05:002013-11-21T21:33:44.194-05:00There were never any problems with the 2nd table.There were never any problems with the 2nd table.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30405617039536133072013-11-21T19:41:42.506-05:002013-11-21T19:41:42.506-05:00>What is penrate? Why is it not in the site glo...>What is penrate? Why is it not in the site glossary?<br /><br />See http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/01/dont-overlook-effect-of-penalties.html for some sort of explanation. <br /><br />TL;DR: Penalty rate is defined as penalty yards per snap.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572444090666181106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82310561892036203922013-11-21T15:18:25.909-05:002013-11-21T15:18:25.909-05:00It looks like changes were made to the first table...It looks like changes were made to the first table, but not the second table :(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30656731658196565842013-11-21T14:32:08.674-05:002013-11-21T14:32:08.674-05:00Yay! It's fixed. And there were only minor cha...Yay! It's fixed. And there were only minor changes in the team's GWP.<br /><br />Anon - penrate is the penalty rate of the team, which means the Seahawks commit (or are called...) for way more penalties than the average team, particularly the Saints who have fewer than average penalties.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25835182826095909132013-11-21T13:59:37.725-05:002013-11-21T13:59:37.725-05:00What is penrate? Why is it not in the site glossa...What is penrate? Why is it not in the site glossary?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69761702921469176532013-11-21T11:47:45.487-05:002013-11-21T11:47:45.487-05:00Now finally corrected. (I know, never say finally ...Now finally corrected. (I know, never say finally when dealing with computer code.) The Opp GWP was being averaged over the # of opponents+1...Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13101622524204323712013-11-21T10:22:32.703-05:002013-11-21T10:22:32.703-05:00Still working out some bugs. The Opp GWP is going ...Still working out some bugs. The Opp GWP is going to be off in the table, but in the calculations it gets normalized to a .50 average point.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-367862318618217262013-11-21T00:43:13.078-05:002013-11-21T00:43:13.078-05:00> I dont understand the ranking of saints and s...> I dont understand the ranking of saints and seahawks. Seahawks has a stronger sos and higher ranked offense and and defense, but have the same score as the saints.<br /><br />Check the penrate for the Hawks, it's miserable.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572444090666181106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69331344714531618152013-11-20T21:56:39.508-05:002013-11-20T21:56:39.508-05:00Should everyones Opp GWP be below 0.50? Should everyones Opp GWP be below 0.50? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39474465917166443272013-11-20T21:45:04.885-05:002013-11-20T21:45:04.885-05:00I dont understand the ranking of saints and seahaw...I dont understand the ranking of saints and seahawks. Seahawks has a stronger sos and higher ranked offense and and defense, but have the same score as the saints.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14638285650709661462013-11-20T20:45:38.547-05:002013-11-20T20:45:38.547-05:00@ Wizard
Don´t pretend to be wiser than you are......@ Wizard<br />Don´t pretend to be wiser than you are...<br />About Parcells, see my last post.<br />And to enlighten you, Mr. Xie was just kidding about Romo. Everybody on this site knows that he is no choker. He was just sarcastic, b/c mainstream thinks he is.<br />Next time better read and understand before posting. Otherwise you´d look like a fool.<br /><br />Karl, GermanyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39590176379772667602013-11-20T20:41:28.100-05:002013-11-20T20:41:28.100-05:00I'll fix it. I knew there was a problem but I ...I'll fix it. I knew there was a problem but I thought I had it licked. One of my data sources has been changing their format. Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47978104380291193042013-11-20T20:38:56.536-05:002013-11-20T20:38:56.536-05:00@ "funny how this article arrogantly mocks Bi...@ "funny how this article arrogantly mocks Bill Parcells and assumes that the actual records of teams are wrong while some analysis is the thing that really is right (even though it therefore follows logically that the analysis is not capable of predicting wins)"<br />Come down to earth. If you wouldn´t be a one time lurker, you would know what this Parcells thing means. That was not offending at all, but going into the direction that game outcomes are 50%+ random as Brian Burke explained some years ago. He just used the Parcells quote back then, and it´s repeated now. Nothing wrong w/it at all.<br />No one said this system can predict wins. But what it can do is showing tendencies for future outcomes. In that case the system was great. For example calling the ATL collapse before it was happening, having GB on top before they won the SB, having the NYG on 4th before the won the SB. No one else saw that coming.<br />Your usual Prisco power rankings can´t do that either, since their rankings go by W-L record. Every idiot can do that!<br /><br />Greetings, Karl, Germany<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76635470763086055382013-11-20T20:01:52.509-05:002013-11-20T20:01:52.509-05:00not only is Mr. Xie, or whatever his last name rea...not only is Mr. Xie, or whatever his last name really is, not reading the comments about the bye weeks, and dissing Bill Parcells, he riders the media wave about Tony Romo choking, which tells me he knows nothing about football because anybody who follows the media basically knows nothing about football. okay, exaggerating a little, but not by much.Wizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38207779929668170902013-11-20T16:00:32.525-05:002013-11-20T16:00:32.525-05:00There's nothing "bold"er than making...There's nothing "bold"er than making a joke about Tony Romo visiting the beach.<br /><br />I'd like to see this fixed too, though. Or at least explained if it is, for whatever reason, not an error. Even though it'll "fix itself" after this week, may as well fix it now for the sake of future seasons.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89037203745335498832013-11-20T15:00:25.293-05:002013-11-20T15:00:25.293-05:00funny how this article arrogantly mocks Bill Parce...funny how this article arrogantly mocks Bill Parcells and assumes that the actual records of teams are wrong while some analysis is the thing that really is right (even though it therefore follows logically that the analysis is not capable of predicting wins).<br /><br />Then add in the irony of not being able to handle bye weeks, and boldly pointing out how the cowboys dropped 7 spots.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22446260717086745112013-11-20T14:34:32.639-05:002013-11-20T14:34:32.639-05:00The good news about the SOS error is everyone will...The good news about the SOS error is everyone will have had their byes after next week, so it will mostly fix itself on its own. Of course, averaging in a 0 will effect high SOS's more than lower ones, but that should be a minor issue.<br /><br />Also I inadvertently switched the 10 and 9 when I typed the equation for Dallas. It should be 0.54 * 9 / 10 = 0.49Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9234938765387882562013-11-20T13:28:57.182-05:002013-11-20T13:28:57.182-05:00Jonathan-- The visualizations on the front page ar...Jonathan-- The visualizations on the front page are defensive/offensive EPA/game. The efficiency rankings aren't the same, they're based on a somewhat more complex formula.<br />-JasonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36600977250616502772013-11-20T13:26:27.672-05:002013-11-20T13:26:27.672-05:00Jonathan,
I believe the viz is the EPA on the sea...Jonathan, <br />I believe the viz is the EPA on the season so it's looking at past performance which includes variables that aren't necessarily predictive of future success. As you mentioned, D-Int% is probably one factor that is weighted less in the rankings than in the EPA viz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73426535446433823412013-11-20T13:03:23.995-05:002013-11-20T13:03:23.995-05:00You may have answered this in another column, but ...You may have answered this in another column, but how come the team data visualizations don't match these rankings? The visualization shows the Panthers as having the most efficient defense in the league, but here their ranking is 11.<br /><br />Do one of these not include D-Int% as those are fluky?Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14666478412024867704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9128903923189650552013-11-20T12:52:07.194-05:002013-11-20T12:52:07.194-05:00Apparently Sterling doesn't read the comments....Apparently Sterling doesn't read the comments. Brian, Brian! Can you do something to fix this? Please! --AlessioAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com