tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8549080089095547706..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Using Probabilistic Distributions to Quantify NFL Combine PerformanceUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31128163272121101102014-08-19T15:31:02.211-04:002014-08-19T15:31:02.211-04:00Just curious why you use a Weibull ranking instead...Just curious why you use a Weibull ranking instead of just a simple normal distribution? Something like this:<br />=1-NORM.DIST(B2,AVERAGE($B$2:$B$82),STDEV($B$2:$B$82),1).<br /><br />Do you have reason to believe these stats aren't normally distributed? Not attacking the methodology. Just wondering. Phil Carlitzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02283548175311996156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31892217087832528122014-06-26T23:19:55.889-04:002014-06-26T23:19:55.889-04:00Hi Casan, thought you might find this article on P...Hi Casan, thought you might find this article on PCA as applied to WR scouting interesting: http://rotoviz.com/2014/05/using-principal-component-analysis-to-identify-high-quality-wide-receivers/jditorohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07836618836509204410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59926634771682622812014-06-06T00:48:02.323-04:002014-06-06T00:48:02.323-04:00"Also, I'd suggest that averaging percent..."Also, I'd suggest that averaging percentile scores may not be the best method. Guys with high scores in certain areas and low scores in others may be more valuable than guys with mediocre scores across the board. For example, Clowney and Ansah bring elite speed with low strength, so in the right scheme they can succeed as pass rushers and one gap run defenders."<br /><br />Common wisdom, however imperfectly or inconsistently applied; better that he do one or two things well, than that he do everything okay. Why? Because you can scheme around a player's imperfections, but you can never make soup from rocks. <br /><br />As a Lions fan, the presence, on this list, of five of their guys struck me: Lo Jack, Willie Young, Ziggy, Devin Taylor, and Larry Webster. I find my initial faith in Mayhew confirmed: know what you want and stick to it, until foul circumstance proves the need to change something. <br /><br />I find myself curious as to how well the modification of their Wide-9 scheme, from two open ends to open/closed, will accommodate existing personnel. Now, I've got to examine their metrics with an eye to this dichotomy.<br /><br />This past season, the success of Cliff Avril, after he moved from Detroit to Seattle, confirmed my own prediction for and judgment of him. His efforts in Detroit were always counterbalanced by his inability to play the run from the Wide-9. His metrics suggested that he would benefit from the shorter route to the passer and the lesser responsibility to contain. Bingo. From the POV of the Detroit F/O, he was a good keep, so long as his price was modest and the alternatives were worse, which ceased to be the case in the 2013 off-season. Good thing for all concerned. (Cliff caught a lot of flak from some Lions fans, for his poor run defense, but it was never really his fault. He is what he is.)scp1957https://www.blogger.com/profile/16529504597505427524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62362863313952497562014-05-29T16:04:46.739-04:002014-05-29T16:04:46.739-04:00Nathan-
There actually has been a slight correla...Nathan- <br /><br />There actually has been a slight correlation demonstrated between Wonderlick and player performance, but not the one the poster above you is implying. There is actually a negative correlation between player performance and Wonderlick for DBs and TEs. That's right Bill- Wonderlick is completely meaningless at most positions, but you'd do better to pick a DB or TE with a lower Wonderlick score than an equivalent guy with a higher score.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66403033152903706622014-05-27T15:07:45.791-04:002014-05-27T15:07:45.791-04:00Completely agree Nathan. Weighting is needed.Completely agree Nathan. Weighting is needed.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08954293072640356009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61759499803989654562014-05-27T13:32:32.440-04:002014-05-27T13:32:32.440-04:00Nevermind, looks like it is obvious, I look forwar...Nevermind, looks like it is obvious, I look forward to reading it.Jared Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17445479616742729527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82168199558077304992014-05-27T13:30:59.919-04:002014-05-27T13:30:59.919-04:00"My other article on Quantile Regression used..."My other article on Quantile Regression used combine numbers and NCAA stats as predictors and did a better job than that of the Harvard Study's (quite a bit higher r2)."<br /><br />Thanks for responding. Could you show me where I can find this article (apologies if it is obvious and I'm missing it)?Jared Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17445479616742729527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58735345398544933932014-05-23T14:19:14.515-04:002014-05-23T14:19:14.515-04:00@Bill Bagley
No one has ever found a positive rela...@Bill Bagley<br />No one has ever found a positive relationship between Wonderlic scores and player performance. So while coaches may want players who have high "football IQs", testing their math and reading skills seems valueless.<br /><br />Also, I'd suggest that averaging percentile scores may not be the best method. Guys with high scores in certain areas and low scores in others may be more valuable than guys with mediocre scores across the board. For example, Clowney and Ansah bring elite speed with low strength, so in the right scheme they can succeed as pass rushers and one gap run defenders.Nathan Lazarusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39447175715171101732014-05-20T15:14:33.080-04:002014-05-20T15:14:33.080-04:00I do like that study's approach! However I was...I do like that study's approach! However I wasn't trying to predict anything using only combine numbers, but rather sought a way to quantify a combine performance within a historical context. My other article on Quantile Regression used combine numbers and NCAA stats as predictors and did a better job than that of the Harvard Study's (quite a bit higher r2). Having said that, these tools are best used in a exploratory way rather than predictive, as they help us dissect trends from confusing data. Thanks again for your interest!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08954293072640356009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54624245581971765212014-05-20T15:04:38.242-04:002014-05-20T15:04:38.242-04:00Thanks for your interest! I agree that the wonderl...Thanks for your interest! I agree that the wonderlic is a valuable measurement. However, here I sought to use the same data set I've been using for PCA and Quantile Regression to illustrate the utility of these tools. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08954293072640356009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72358694848960188242014-05-20T12:31:33.694-04:002014-05-20T12:31:33.694-04:00Is it possible to incorporate the results from the...Is it possible to incorporate the results from the Harvard analysis on the combine measureables that are statistically significant in this position group?<br /><br />http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/does-the-nfl-combine-matter-defense/<br /><br />According to this article, the only combine measureables that are statistically significant for DEs are the 40-yard dash, 3 cone drill, and weight. Ideally, these measureables should be given more weight in this analysis.Jared Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17445479616742729527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-84936803610754941442014-05-19T13:43:02.457-04:002014-05-19T13:43:02.457-04:00Where is the cognitive speed data, such as the Won...Where is the cognitive speed data, such as the Wonderlic? Athleticism is overrated in the NFL. I will bet on a fast thinker much quicker than a fast runner. Brady turned in the second worst QB time in the 40, since 1999. You know Tom Brady, the greatest draft pick in history, chosen late in the 6th round. The NFL has chosen some of the greatest athletes in history but has missed some of the greatest players.BillBagleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05013617543516721262noreply@blogger.com