tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8966389680685297413..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Kicker Billy Cundiff Had 20 Sacks This YearUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5532820330299718962011-09-13T12:57:51.972-04:002011-09-13T12:57:51.972-04:00This one guy told me that billy cundiff stinks. Bu...This one guy told me that billy cundiff stinks. But he is a bengals fan and also not the brightest and also a hater. Billy cundiff is an awesome player and any team would be lucky to have him! Thanks for this great info. Appreciate someone who is smart enough to know how valuable he really is :) #7 go ravensAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61912562230293451452011-01-10T06:45:56.110-05:002011-01-10T06:45:56.110-05:00Back in September on the commmunity site someone p...Back in September on the commmunity site someone posted an article about PK salaries and performance and I chipped in with the comment below about the value of a good KO man. With Buehler of the cowboys being worth nine points in 2009 based on his large number of TBs although I assumned a Tb was worth 0.5 points if it is worth 0.8 then his value was 14 points above average which is in the same ball park as cundiff's 22 points in 2010.<br /><br />James<br /><br /><br />"Off the top of my head I think a touchback is worth about 0.5 points as the average start after a KO is the 27 yard line and 14yds=1point.<br /><br />In 2009 the average TB% was 15% so if your kicker does better than that he is valuable. Using this approach David Buehler of Dallas comes tops as he had 29 TB in 77 KOs which is 38%, an average kicker would only have had 11.5 so those extra 17.5 TBs are possibly worth about 9 points if you assume a TB is half a point. Which is comparable with the best FG performance in your study and if KO performance is more consistent then FG year to year this may justify having a KO specialist. And I am ignoring any effect that good KO guys have on KOs that aren't TBs which could also add to their value. Because I cant find any data on where KOs are fielded rather just TB rate and Avg return."Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79221851532469506412011-01-06T21:45:36.555-05:002011-01-06T21:45:36.555-05:00Anon-That's true. There's actually a schoo...Anon-That's true. There's actually a school of thought here at Advanced NFL Stats headquarters that running plays and passing plays should have their own independent EPA models. That way we can better compare RBs to other RBs and QBs to other QBs. Zero EPA would be the theoretical average for both.<br /><br />bmoore-Great suggestion. The reason is that I'm not fully satisfied with how the model captures special teams. I think it does ok, but I haven't had the time to test and make sure. It's definitely in the plans at some point. There are so many cool things I'd like to do, and that's one of them.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60503027158006272532011-01-05T15:31:19.151-05:002011-01-05T15:31:19.151-05:00That seems reasonable to me.
Using your example...That seems reasonable to me. <br /><br />Using your example from midfield, would you prefer...<br /><br />-6 chances at 2nd and 7?<br /><br />or<br /><br />-5 chances at 2nd and 5 plus 1 chance at 2nd and 17?<br /><br />The EP model says these two scenarios are close to equal and my I agree.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90660152469997166902011-01-05T12:24:08.168-05:002011-01-05T12:24:08.168-05:00"Sacks are worth (on average) 1.7 EP, so a to..."Sacks are worth (on average) 1.7 EP, so a touchback could be considered the equivalent of about half a sack."<br /><br />Brian,<br /><br />What do you think about the theory that EP analysis doesn't capture the true value of sacks. Why? As you've worked out the average run play is a ~0 EP and and the average pass play is a ~0.2 EP, right? So basically every foregone pass attempt is worth +0.2 EP. What EP analysis fails to capture is foregone passes dictated by a good pass rush ... pass plays the offense doesn't run because they're concerned with sacks. <br /><br />I started thinking about this because I was thinking about the value of pass defense vs run defense. Let me give you an example. The difference between allowing a 3 yard gain and a 5 yard gain on a 1&10 from the 50 is 0.3 in EP. If a sack is only worth 1.7 then it's also equal to holding a team to 3 yards instead of 5 yards five times. Does that seem right to you (it doesn't to me)? Just gut feel it seems like a sack is worth much more than holding a team to 2 less yards on 5 plays.<br /><br />What do you think?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48849962972325792422011-01-05T11:14:01.773-05:002011-01-05T11:14:01.773-05:00Brian, why not add individual stats for kickers, u...Brian, why not add individual stats for kickers, using the weighted average EP?bmoore_uclanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42148626308069787292011-01-05T10:54:29.519-05:002011-01-05T10:54:29.519-05:00In an interview this week, Cundiff credited his co...In an interview this week, Cundiff credited his coaches for giving him the green light to kick for distance rather than hang time or direction, saying that most special teams coaches are so paranoid about long returns or out of bounds kicks that they don't allow their pickers to swing away aggressively.<br /><br />I'be always wondered if this is a good trade off. Does kicking high into the corner reduce the risk of a long return at the expense of a few yards of field position?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19608720761967416272011-01-05T03:15:57.629-05:002011-01-05T03:15:57.629-05:00Is another way of comparing kickers to look at wha...Is another way of comparing kickers to look at what yard line they kick to, and calculating an expected points for a return team from there?<br /><br />Touchbacks are good, but are also thaaks in part to the coverage team. If you're a returner and you get the ball 3 yards deep in your end zone, the choice of whether to come out or not will depend in part on whether you like how your blocking is lined up against their coverage.<br /><br />I haven't looked at the PBP, but the reason Cundiff might be getting so many TBs is because the Ravens coverage is getting downfield well, rather than he's kicking deeper. This method seems like it would correct for coverage and value the actual kicker.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36821961236961610022011-01-04T23:12:03.100-05:002011-01-04T23:12:03.100-05:00Mike G,
Do some research. The Ravens put a lot o...Mike G,<br /><br />Do some research. The Ravens put a lot of resources into their special teams this year. Harbaugh was a former ST coach with the Eagles and he brought along a lot of kicking specialist with him. The NFL network did a whole special on the kicking mechanics coach that worked with Billy. He kicks the ball very differently then previous year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82632893338132249982011-01-04T20:26:16.000-05:002011-01-04T20:26:16.000-05:00It seems like this would understate Cundiff's ...It seems like this would understate Cundiff's contribution. I would assume that the ~50% of KOs that were non-TB would also have a mean starting position well ahead of the League average. <br /><br />However, comparing his production to that of a 20 sack defender is not really fair. Sacks accumulate from persistent pressure in excess of the actual plays that result in sacks. That defender probably disrupted 50 to 100 pass plays in addition to the actual sacks.<br /><br />I suppose it's more fair to compare Cunliff to a hypothetical defender who recorded 20 sacks, but performed completely average in all other plays all year long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13646243349010272712011-01-04T18:39:38.442-05:002011-01-04T18:39:38.442-05:00Bill Simmons made an interesting observation: Cund...Bill Simmons made an interesting observation: Cundiff's sacks rocketed this year. From basically never, to much of the time. <br /><br />Simmons wondered: 'Roids?<br /><br />From a statistical perspective, has any kicker in NFL history ever inflated their touchbacks so dramatically from one season (actually several) to another? I.e., would you use numbers to create a Sosa-like question here?Mike G.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5813529099394254802011-01-04T18:38:04.715-05:002011-01-04T18:38:04.715-05:00I should show this post to anyone who ever argues ...I should show this post to anyone who ever argues for awarding an RB the MVP award.Joe Reganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04575217740526266213noreply@blogger.com