tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post9186607046332596651..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 10Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55833785402591189272013-11-15T10:33:06.865-05:002013-11-15T10:33:06.865-05:00This late into the season, there aren't really...This late into the season, there aren't really any more flukes. Injuries are really the one major variable that can still change a team's fortunes, but it's impossible to know when landscape-changing losses like Aaron Rodgers will happen.<br /><br />So if we (mostly) accept the data that 10 weeks have shown us, the teams in the top and bottom 10 are likely to stay that way<br /><br />Technically, this is true, but I don't think the statement means as much as it sounds like it does. This late in the season, sure, the top 10 teams will likely finish in the top 10, because they've already done well on the first 60% of the exam. The better test would be to measure how many of the top/bottom 10 teams finish in the top/bottom ten over just weeks 11 to 16/17. My guess is that maybe only 5 or 6 would stay in the top/bottom ten.Chasehttp://www.footballperspective.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44890438927143174042013-11-14T08:51:12.626-05:002013-11-14T08:51:12.626-05:00Mitch, if you think the model is off on KC, what d...Mitch, if you think the model is off on KC, what do you know about the team that the model doesn't?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42219814000436318012013-11-13T21:22:06.604-05:002013-11-13T21:22:06.604-05:00The model too it on the chin last week and 2 wees ...The model too it on the chin last week and 2 wees ago with the Bengals.<br />Very doubtful the Bengals were ever close to being the best team in the league.<br /><br />The best team is and has been Seahawks.<br /><br />This week the big game, the model has Denver -10.5 VS KC.<br />The model has KC ranked to low. Doubtful that Cardinals, Giants, Cowboys and Bears are better than KC. Colts and Pats may not be as good either.<br /><br />The biggest difference between the model and the spread this week is Eagles -12 VS Redsins.<br /><br />Looking at GWP, Denver at .71 and KC at .49 is a .22 difference.<br />Eagles at .68 with Redskins at .41 is a bigger difference at .27, yet Denver is a 9 pt favorite while Eagles only a 3.5 pt favorite.<br /><br />The model is telling you to back the Eagles this week.<br /><br />Very possible Eagles could have a regression this week, we'll see.<br />Mitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28300908014219671452013-11-13T21:07:43.274-05:002013-11-13T21:07:43.274-05:00The difference between Seattle and KC is, Seattle ...The difference between Seattle and KC is, Seattle has dominated some of their opponents in those close wins while KC has actually been out-played or played about even to it's oponents in their close wins in effenciency stats.<br /><br />Mitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34410134232276533802013-11-13T10:00:52.097-05:002013-11-13T10:00:52.097-05:00Hey Brian/Sterling, I'm pretty sure you forgot...Hey Brian/Sterling, I'm pretty sure you forgot to account for the bye weeks when calculating the Opp GWP. It seems impossible for only 4 teams to have Opp GWPs at or above 500, and looking at past efficiency articles (Week 4 this year, Week 8 last year) they are both near 16.<br /><br />For instance, the Cowboys haven't had their bye yet, and when I do their SOS by hand I get 0.54, same as listed above. However when I caclulate the Bucs' SOS I get 0.57, but if I divide by N+1 instead of N I get 0.52, which is what's listed above. I'm going to check the others to see if that holds true.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-41655092897716896032013-11-13T08:59:41.261-05:002013-11-13T08:59:41.261-05:00Pythagorean models may well think that the Chiefs&...Pythagorean models may well think that the Chiefs' aren't as good as their record, but I doubt that they consider Kansas City to be a league average team this year. I understand that the ratings are explicitly and deliberately set up to be independent of this sort of thinking, but it's still a little amusing to see Seattle at the top of the list, when the Seahawks' 5-1 in close games is a bit more of a reach than the Chiefs' 3-0.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76371352119173348552013-11-13T08:12:21.977-05:002013-11-13T08:12:21.977-05:00Ironically, coming into the year, the Falcons had ...<i>Ironically, coming into the year, the Falcons had the fourth-best winning percentage in one-score games since the Ryan era began in 2007.</i><br /><br />Ryan's rookie year was 2008. Also, the linked game finder query is for all games with a point differential of +8 or less, which includes all losses regardless of score. Correcting for these two problems (or even just the first one) moves the Falcons to the top of the list:<br />http://tinyurl.com/kuy24bxJames Sinclairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10213045233649924060noreply@blogger.com