tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post928597313621748655..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): WP: The Record Keeps SkippingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22517106394709573822011-10-31T11:19:31.350-04:002011-10-31T11:19:31.350-04:00BB: Good article, but do you account for the Redsk...BB: Good article, but do you account for the Redskins (or any other team) being stretched too thin in your power rankings and win probability models?Steve Freemanhttp://sffreeman.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21130813229812078012011-10-28T15:59:15.636-04:002011-10-28T15:59:15.636-04:00Except for the very, very worst and very, very bes...Except for the very, very worst and very, very best NFL teams, their chances of success on any one play are very close. Not identical, but very close.<br /><br />It's only when the small differences in relative success rates accumulate over several dozen plays in a game do we even begin to be able to separate the better teams from the worse teams.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26981462822532766862011-10-28T00:08:03.033-04:002011-10-28T00:08:03.033-04:00The only issue I have with the 4th and 2 analysis ...The only issue I have with the 4th and 2 analysis is that, while teams in general might have a 60% chance of converting 4th and 2 in the red zone, did the Beck-led Redskins have a 60% chance? I don't think the Redskins have a league-average offense (correct me if I'm wrong). What is the "break-even" point (i.e. what's the probability of converting 4th and 2) where kicking the FG and going for it are a toss up? If it's like 20%, then, sure, kicking was the wrong decision. If it's 55%, then probably kicking is better...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77893476082396341152011-10-27T15:36:12.371-04:002011-10-27T15:36:12.371-04:00I second one of the WP commenter's views about...I second one of the WP commenter's views about how important pass-blocking is for a RB's playing time. Frank Gore played so much for the niners last year because he was significantly better at pass blocking than the other guys. Not sure if that's strategically a good reason to allocate playing time to a RB, but it's what the coaches and sports writers say.Ian Bnoreply@blogger.com