Game Predictions Week 17

Game probabilities for week 17 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

These probabilities may not reflect that several teams are locked into their playoff seeds and possibly resting many of their starters. However, I will post these without regard to this consideration and allow everyone to apply their own correction. Teams that are particularly likely to not play at full strength are noted (*). My own sense is that the only games in which the favorite would now be the underdog are the TEN at IND and DAL at WAS games.

Vprob	Visitor	Home	Hprob
0.83	NE	NYG*	0.17
0.26	BUF	PHI	0.74
0.12	CAR	TB*	0.88
0.53	CIN	MIA	0.47
0.64	DAL*	WAS	0.36
0.14	DET	GB*	0.86
0.71	JAX	HOU	0.29
0.57	NO	CHI	0.43
0.70	PIT	BAL	0.30
0.69	SEA*	ATL	0.31
0.12	SF	CLE	0.88
0.12	TEN	IND*	0.88
0.43	MIN	DEN	0.57
0.84	SD	OAK	0.16
0.36	STL	ARI	0.64
0.31	KC	NYJ	0.69