Week 16 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 16. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

Click on the table headers to sort.

Rank	Team	Last Wk	GWP	Opp GWP	O Rank	D Rank
1	NE	1	0.87	0.51	1	4
2	IND	2	0.87	0.52	3	1
3	DAL	3	0.77	0.47	4	7
4	JAX	5	0.76	0.53	2	10
5	TB	4	0.74	0.46	5	5
6	SD	7	0.68	0.50	15	3
7	PIT	8	0.67	0.48	12	6
8	SEA	9	0.65	0.41	13	11
9	GB	6	0.63	0.45	6	14
10	PHI	10	0.63	0.55	7	13
11	WAS	14	0.57	0.53	17	8
12	TEN	11	0.56	0.51	24	2
13	MIN	13	0.51	0.44	14	19
14	DEN	12	0.51	0.49	8	29
15	NYG	15	0.50	0.48	21	9
16	CLE	17	0.48	0.47	11	21
17	HOU	16	0.47	0.53	16	30
18	CIN	21	0.47	0.48	10	28
19	BUF	18	0.44	0.55	18	16
20	NO	20	0.43	0.51	9	32
21	NYJ	19	0.43	0.54	22	18
22	BAL	23	0.39	0.52	25	17
23	ATL	22	0.36	0.51	19	25
24	CAR	24	0.36	0.53	27	12
25	ARI	27	0.34	0.46	20	23
26	KC	25	0.34	0.51	29	15
27	MIA	26	0.33	0.53	26	22
28	STL	29	0.30	0.51	30	20
29	CHI	31	0.30	0.53	28	26
30	DET	28	0.30	0.51	23	24
31	OAK	30	0.23	0.50	31	31
32	SF	32	0.17	0.49	32	27