2007 Final Regular Season Team Efficiency Ratings

Final regular season NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed (Opp GWP), which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP is adjusted to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (OGWP/O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data from all 256 regular season games. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

The Bills, Texans, and Dolphins had the toughest schedules. The easiest belonged to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Packers. The best defense this year belonged to the Colts, followed closely by the Titans. The Chargers came on strong in the second half of the year to claim third. The Saints had the worst. The best offense belonged to the Patriots, followed by the Jaguars, Colts, Cowboys, and Packers. The 49ers edged out the Raiders for the worst offense.

Click on the table headers to sort.

Rank	Team	GWP	Opp GWP	OGWP	O Rank	DGWP	D Rank
1	NE	0.87	0.53	0.80	1	0.61	4
2	IND	0.85	0.54	0.68	3	0.69	1
3	JAX	0.77	0.54	0.72	2	0.55	9
4	DAL	0.75	0.50	0.66	4	0.58	8
5	TB	0.73	0.45	0.63	6	0.61	6
6	SD	0.66	0.49	0.53	15	0.64	3
7	PIT	0.65	0.47	0.55	13	0.61	5
8	GB	0.64	0.44	0.63	5	0.50	13
9	PHI	0.62	0.54	0.60	7	0.49	15
10	TEN	0.62	0.55	0.43	22	0.68	2
11	SEA	0.60	0.39	0.56	11	0.52	12
12	WAS	0.60	0.54	0.50	17	0.60	7
13	DEN	0.52	0.50	0.59	8	0.42	28
14	NYG	0.52	0.52	0.44	20	0.55	10
15	HOU	0.49	0.56	0.54	14	0.42	29
16	MIN	0.49	0.45	0.53	16	0.46	20
17	CLE	0.48	0.45	0.56	10	0.44	23
18	NYJ	0.47	0.55	0.43	23	0.49	16
19	CIN	0.46	0.47	0.58	9	0.42	30
20	BUF	0.46	0.57	0.48	19	0.49	18
21	NO	0.40	0.50	0.55	12	0.34	32
22	BAL	0.40	0.51	0.41	25	0.50	14
23	ATL	0.38	0.51	0.48	18	0.43	26
24	CAR	0.37	0.53	0.39	27	0.52	11
25	ARI	0.35	0.42	0.44	21	0.46	19
26	KC	0.34	0.51	0.35	28	0.49	17
27	MIA	0.34	0.55	0.39	26	0.42	31
28	CHI	0.29	0.50	0.33	30	0.45	21
29	DET	0.28	0.51	0.41	24	0.43	25
30	STL	0.25	0.47	0.34	29	0.45	22
31	OAK	0.24	0.52	0.33	31	0.43	27
32	SF	0.15	0.45	0.22	32	0.43	24