Cutler's Sack Struggles

Jay Cutler is a sack-magnet.  Cutler led the league in sacks last year with 52 and is currently the 2nd most sacked quarterback in the NFL with Sam Bradford taking that crown after a 7-sack performance Sunday.  Most of the blame usually falls either on his offensive line or on himself for holding the ball too long.  Both of these contribute to his sack-a-licious resume, but the biggest contributing factor may be the system in which he plays.

First, let’s look at the evolution of the shotgun offense.  In 2000, just under 20% of all pass plays were taken from shotgun.  As of 2010, almost 55% of all passing plays were taken from shotgun (57% so far this year!).

Top Ten Most Exciting Games of 2010: Lions at Bears

Known mostly as the game Gene Steratore and his officiating crew redefined what a catch is, changing the outcome of the entire game and delivering the first big controversy of the regular season, week one’s contest between the Bears and Lions was a division showdown pitting rivals with striking similarities: Two young, hugely-expensive franchise quarterbacks attempting to break through after a poor first season; two dominant defensive lines; two suspect-to-atrocious offensive lines.

Why this game was exciting: This game was exciting as determined by win probability, because the score was within one point for most of the second half, and because the two teams combined for seven turnovers including five fumbles lost (out of seven fumbles total.) That led to wild swings in win probability despite a static and nearly even score.

Turning of the tide: Detroit’s win probability peaked at 85% following a nine yard reception by Matt Forte with 1:25 left in the first half. On the very next play, Forte released out of the backfield into a speed out, Olin Kreutz submarined Julian Peterson with a pretty and perfectly-timed open-field cut block, and Forte ran up the right sideline for 89 yards and a touchdown. Three plays later, Julius Peppers ran under a block by Jeff Backus, turned the corner nearly uncontested, and blindsided Matthew Stafford for a sack-fumble recovered by Tommie Harris. Within little more than one minute of play clock, the Bears surged from 15% win probability to 54% win probability. Stafford would miss the next six weeks including the bye.