Recently, Profootballtalk published an article discussing potential plans to eliminate an opening kickoff entirely (H/T to Abe Schwadron of TDDaily.com).
"Sean Gregory of TIME writes that one of the options being considered for replacing kickoffs entails giving the ball to the team that would have been kicking off at its own 30, automatically facing a fourth down and 15 yards to go. The team can then choose to punt or go for it, via fake punt or otherwise.
In other words, the kickoff would be replaced with the punt, and the onside kick would be replaced with a fourth-down conversion roughly half the distance of Ray Rice’s recent catch-and-run."
Obviously this concept piqued my curiosity, so I decided to run the numbers. Check out my two posts:
1) Goodell To Change Kickoff Rule? This gives an overview of the different probabilities and frequencies that would change.
2) Schiano's Suggested Kickoff Rule: When To Go For It? This looks at when it makes sense to attempt the 4th-and-15 and/or fake a punt.
Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform. Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.
