West coast teams have a big advantage in night games. I think I buy the numbers here. Backed by a solid theory.
Do nice players make their team worse? Perhaps a lesson for teams looking at Richie Incognito next season.
Stat leader rewind at PFR. I think football stats (the trivia kind anyway) need to be put in context of the era, especially compared to baseball. This will help.
Are football player lifespans shorter because of football or simply due to weight (or maybe other lurking factors)?
There are only 11 minutes of action in a 3 hour football game. And there are over 100 commercials.
Who are the best deep passers?
An article by Harvard's Nieman Journalism Lab on the brave new world of the 4th Down Bot. (It's a good thing I didn't show them this.)
I'd also like to take this opportunity to call out the call-out from that article: "The model and the bot are starting points for analysis. It's not meant to be the final arbiter of coaching decisions." I understand some of the negative reaction to Riverboat ROM (as podcast host Dave Collins nicknamed it). It's undeniable that in-game decisions aren't really as cut-and-dry as the Bot makes it seem. We tried to make that clear up front, in its introduction at NYT and here at ANS. Besides, we all have instant opinions for 4th downs when watching games as fans. It's not the worst thing in the world for those opinions to be informed by what the numbers suggest.
Sports Illustrated looks at last Saturday's big decisions in the Alabama-Auburn and Ohio State-Michigan games using (a modified) WP Calculator. For the record I disagree with the article's analysis of Alabama's long FG.
Roundup 12/6/13
Roundup 11/16/2013
People will overpay to control their own payoffs. "The average participant is willing to sacrifice 8% to 15% of expected asset-earnings to retain control." This is consistent with the notion that teams that trade away too much to move up in the draft.
Using tracking cameras to analyze drives to the hoop in the NBA.
Keith takes Nantz and Simms to task for their misunderstanding of when to go for 2. This situation is not uncommon--I mean that teams should go for 2 earlier rather than later because of the value of information, not that announcers don't understand what they're talking about. (Although that happens plenty.) Here's an example from just a couple weeks ago:
Roundup 11/9/13
Jason uses our EPA model to assess red zone pass locations. Excellent analysis. Excellent visualization.
Keith's efficiency leaders through week 9.
Chase gives us a report on "sack factor."
An update on team injury report calibration. Questionable and Probable designatees play more often than expected.
GB's playoff chances depend on Rodgers returning for the Thanksgiving day game vs DET.
Novel idea for restructuring MLB.
Roundup 11/2/13
What if MLB played an NFL-style schedule? Helmet knock-Tango.
Although I sometimes use Vegas numbers as a benchmark, I don't pick against the spread. I just doesn't interest me. But I know a lot of our readers do. If so, beware of guys like me. Also beware of small sample analysis.
Scott from Football Outsiders uses WPA to evaluate for Calvin Johnson's case to be MVP. ($)
Keith's efficiency numbers underscore Johnson's case.
We have a Doug Drinen sighting! Doug devises a stat for moral victory.
Roundup 10/26/13
Which NFL pundit makes the worst predictions? Umm. Wow. If you just pick the home team you're right 58% of the time.
Cool visualizations of MLB boxscores.
How do Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson compare? You might be surprised.
Rivers does a great job breaking down goal line success by play type.
ESPN's NFL Live on-air analysts say TAKE THE POINTS and kick the FG. Unfortunately they're LIVING IN THE 70s. Nice take-down by Jason.
Roundup 10/19/13
A Visualization of NFL betting lines. Cool viz, but it makes me wonder how many people out there are, say, betting on the Cowboys because they're so good at beating the spread this year. I'd think a betting system that just counter-bets stupid analysis would be a winner. But then again, there are probably already thousands of sharks who do that.
How have defenses adapted as the fullback disappears from NFL offenses?
Little technicalities like this can drive guys like me crazy when the numbers don't add up. Neil has the answer.
Peyton Manning is obviously on steroids.*
Did the Toronto Maple Leafs prove advanced hockey metrics wrong? Phil's take.
Never miss an installment of Bill's Thank You for Not Coaching series.
Return of the Roundup 10/12/13
The Roundup is back. We've dusted it off to provide some of the best smart sports research links in one place. Wasting your time on a lazy Saturday since 2008.
Cool visualization of NFL salaries by position.
Going for it on 4th down at the end of a half is a unique animal because there's no chance of either the opponent scoring or getting the ball back in great field position. Jason Lisk uses the WP Calculator to crunch the numbers.
How the Packers use individual player stats.
Where have all the fullbacks gone?
People Consume 10x More Music Than Sports, So Why Does Sports Make 6x the Cash? via Marginal Revolution
Roundup 1/14/12
When it comes to passing, there's the Packers, Saints, and Patriots, and then there's everyone else.
Tebow is no good, except when he's great.
PFR's AV for 2011 is up.
The future of prediction.
From the Community Site: Bayesian Coach Rankings by David Durschlag. Also, Jim Glass keeps it simple.
Michael Beuoy has also updated his 'futures' market rankings, which I think is very clever. Michael has also recently launched his own site. Check it out.
The NFL continues to be competitively balanced.
The effect of the kickoff rule change.
Roundup 12/31/11
The Packers have allowed more yards than they've gained, yet are 14-1. How is this possible?
Be suspicious of the narrative.
Drafting QBs according to Career Approximate Value.
Devin Hestor: folk hero.
Tom Tango is offering a class for the SABR-minded.
Remembering the longest NFL game ever.
Roundup 2/12/11
The Fifth Down picked up my analysis of the Packer's 4th and goal decision a the end of the Super Bowl. Editor extraordinaire Toni Monkovic made the connection to a very interesting quote about the psychology of needing a TD to win rather than a FG to tie by Eli Manning.
Ever wonder which sports are followed by liberals and which by conservatives?
Which QB is most likely to be best in 2011?
In defense of the NFL passer rating.
Roundup 2/5/2011
Please welcome Outside the Hashes to the advanced stats community.
The Rams Herd uses advanced stats to compare STL's MVP candidates.
Does defense really win championships? A couple more stabs at the question.
How much does NFL playoff seeding matter? Obviously the 1 and 2 seeds have a very substantial advantage simply due to the bye. Home field is a big plus too. Beyond that I doubt the seeding matters in terms of strength of draw for a lot of reasons. The post at the link appears to confirm that.
Bradford and Suh won rookie of the year honors. But between the two, Suh has clearly made the bigger first-year impact. Bradford still has a lot of potential, but he was 33rd in total EPA for all QBs. Suh ranked 2nd in +EPA for all defensive tackles. He was 7th in TF. He led the league for all DTs with 10 sacks and 17 QB hits.
Roundup 1/29/11
Locker-room "cancers" really are big problems.
This profile of 'Voros' McCracken, the brains behind the DIPS concept in baseball, is a great article, but somewhat depressing. (h/k - Tango)
Has human athletic performance peaked?
Evidenced Based Medicine (EBM) is the idea that for too long doctors have relied on their keen intuition and experience-informed judgment to diagnose illnesses and prescribe treatments. In many ways, the medical professions see themselves as high priests of the art of medicine, a lot like how some football coaches see themselves as shamans of the mystical craft of football. It turns out that study after study finds that diagnoses are often more accurate when the doctors play the percentages, and not the percentages of conventional wisdom, but the real percentages dictated by statistics and probability. Here's a post by a doctor who sees the similarities between what we do here at Advanced NFL Stats and his profession. I could really re-title this site Evidenced Based Football. It's really the same idea. Of course, we're not saving lives around here. We're doing something far more important--analyzing grown men crashing into each other while wearing crash helmets and silly costumes.
Roundup 1/22/11
How good has Aaron Rodgers been in his 3 playoff starts? Before we get too excited about Rodgers' place among the game's greats, keep in mind just how much friendlier the league has become to passers over the years. Even over a one year span, 2010 was measurably easier to throw in than 2009.
Are playoff byes worthless, or even bad? (Helmet-knock: Tango) Tango nails it. We're looking at too small a sample to tell anything, and what we do see is not far off from what we'd expect. Keep in mind that in the regular season since 1994 (a fairly big sample) teams coming off byes win 53% of the time. Also, keep in mind that a bye is essentially an automatic playoff win! It nearly doubles a team's chances of making it to the Super Bowl over any other team without a bye.
Are NFL coaches finally catching on to advanced stats? Yes, they are. I know first hand that multiple teams use advanced analysis. Kovash, who is now with the Cowboys, is a smart guy and Jason Garrett would do well to listen to him.
Football Outsiders' Starter-Games-Lost stat for 2010.
Roundup 1/8/11
The violence of football put in historical perspective.
This is from a Peter King MMQB that's a couple weeks old, but I liked the detailed narrative of what goes into a punt from Vikings punter Chris Kluwe. I just really enjoy it when I read something from a player who can articulate what goes into their craft.
Not all official gamebooks are created equal. Some scorers add extra details. The crew at Dallas is especially good. Here is one from Buffalo that adds details of the depth and location of each pass attempt. Helmet-knock: Adam Tarr.
Can you guess the top selling NFL jersey? I guessed Tebow.
Help Chase out by comparing Matt Ryan and Jake Long.
Roundup 12/24/10
Mike Nolan regrets not benching Alex Smith sooner. Alleluia. Coaches cling to these top draft pick QBs far too long. Sunk costs.
We have a Doug Drinen sighting. Bring back the mid-week play-in game! (Well, bring back the idea anyway.)
Where did game theory come from?
Do teams that play on Thursday have an advantage the following week? Good question. I wonder if teams that play on Monday are at any disadvantage the following week. There would be a larger sample than for Thursday games.
Roundup 12/18/10
Matt Ryan for MVP. WPA agrees.
Is rushing the key to beating the Patriots?
Hidden gems drive the Patriots' success in 2010.
Worst late-season collapses.
PFR continues to add features.
Down by 2 scores late. Kick first and save time for later?
Roundup 12/4/10
Quantifying the importance of the Jets-Patriots game. I suppose many of the same insights could apply to the Steelers-Ravens game.
Is John Elway really the comeback king?
The Patriots are a second-half team this year. Last year they were a first-half team. I wonder if it's just a 'splits happen' phenomenon or something more?
Peyton Hillis and one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory.
Weekly playoff projections from NFL-Forcast.com.
Which is the better team, the one that's 7-4 or the one that's 4-7? Or is it a team that's 2-9?
Roundup 11/27/10
Reader Gautham Venugopalan alerted me to this article that describes how Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers grades out his defense. It sounds similar to a simplified success rate stat.
Behind the net on the randomness of NHL win-loss records.
What are the most prominent "wrong football beliefs?" Punting all the time, maybe. Running back overuse? The importance of running?
Bruce D shares his breakdown of lucky plays at the Community Site. He tracked each team's "lucky" plays, defined as non-repeatable things such as kick returns for TDs or fumble recoveries. He scores out each team in terms of these plays. Bruce then demonstrates that these plays do not correlate from one half of the season to the next, at least for 2009, suggesting they really are lucky plays. Awsome. I'd love to see more from Bruce and more from all you guys crunching numbers on your own.
This site appears to have some sort of EI algorithm for telling you which games on your DVR you should watch and which ones you should delete. Interesting idea, but how many people would use this? Helmet-knock: Tech Crunch and premium subscriber Borat. (For Christmas this year, I'm renewing Borat's premium subscription for half-price. I was raised to be very generous like that.)
Manning vs. Brady using EPA and WPA.
There's a great new ESPN stats blog, simply called Stats & Info. According to the site, it started as an in-house source of content for producers and analysts, but now it's publicly available. Nice blend of conventional and advanced statistical insight. Here are some example posts. Look for more advanced stats, including for football, from ESPN in the future. It's a niche they're looking to fill, and they have some very bright guys working on their stats team.
Roundup 11/20/10
How does David Garrard have the second highest passer rating in the league?
After reading this, I don't think Bill Belichick really understands statistics the way many people thinks he does. He knows that most stats are junk trivia, but still seems unsure which ones are worthwhile. He appears to grasp that the bottom line goal is net point differential.
How to use PFR's 'Play Index' to search for player and team milestones.
How good are the 2010 Jets?
How unlucky are the 2010 Lions? (My 2 cents: Lions are not very good, but they're improving. I've got them 28th in terms of efficiency. They're lucky in terms of points scored, considering their ability to move the ball, but they're unlucky in terms of converting points into wins.)
What are statistics, anyway? As Tango put it: "If a blogger does it it's crap; If a coach does it it's great."
Roundup 11/13/10
Should Antwaan Randle El be used in trick plays more often?
How lucky or unlucky have today's crop of QBs been? The Rivers Index tells us.
"Getting the most out of a professional athlete does not involve filling his head with useless facts and statistics and probabilities, and filling him with fear of what may happen if he forgets them." That's the perspective of Nate Jackson, a TE who was cut from the Browns in August. That seems right on the money to me. The picture he paints of the Browns' training camp reminds me of Plebe Summer. Don't miss the interview Jackson links to in his article.
John Candido has posted up to date play-by-play data for everyone over at the Community site.
The Lions are improving.