Week 9 Standings Forecast

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.

Soon, I'll be teaming up again with NFL Forecast to feature playoff probabilities for each team. It's harder than it seems thanks to the NFL's incredibly complex tie-breaking rules, so we're fortunate to have an iron-clad system like NFL Forecast's.

RANK	TEAM	Fut Opp GWP	Proj GWP	Curr W	Proj W
AFC East
9	MIA	0.34	0.78	4	10.2
18	BUF	0.39	0.64	5	10.1
20	NYJ	0.43	0.54	5	9.3
24	NE	0.51	0.33	5	7.6
AFC North
7	PIT	0.48	0.68	6	11.5
19	BAL	0.55	0.46	5	8.7
26	CLE	0.52	0.31	3	5.2
30	CIN	0.54	0.20	1	2.4
AFC South
12	TEN	0.46	0.64	8	13.1
16	IND	0.44	0.60	4	8.8
22	HOU	0.49	0.43	3	6.4
23	JAX	0.50	0.37	3	6.0
AFC West
4	SD	0.44	0.76	3	9.1
21	DEN	0.50	0.42	4	7.8
28	OAK	0.51	0.30	2	4.4
31	KC	0.52	0.19	1	2.5
RANK	TEAM	Fut Opp GWP	Proj GWP	Curr W	Proj W
NFC East
2	WAS	0.48	0.77	6	11.4
1	PHI	0.54	0.75	5	11.0
8	NYG	0.66	0.50	7	11.0
14	DAL	0.58	0.47	5	8.3
NFC North
5	CHI	0.48	0.69	5	10.5
17	MIN	0.50	0.53	4	8.3
15	GB	0.53	0.51	4	8.1
32	DET	0.56	0.16	0	1.3
NFC South
3	CAR	0.50	0.75	6	12.0
6	ATL	0.56	0.61	5	9.9
13	TB	0.54	0.53	6	9.7
10	NO	0.53	0.59	4	8.8
NFC West
11	ARI	0.54	0.57	5	9.6
27	SF	0.50	0.32	2	4.6
25	SEA	0.53	0.31	2	4.5
29	STL	0.51	0.23	2	3.9

Standings Forecast Week 8

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.

TEAM	GWP	Fut Opp GWP	Proj GWP	Curr W	Proj W
AFC E
BUF	0.63	0.39	0.72	5	11.5
MIA	0.67	0.37	0.77	3	10.0
NYJ	0.46	0.47	0.49	4	8.4
NE	0.35	0.53	0.32	5	7.9
AFC N
PIT	0.63	0.51	0.62	5	10.6
BAL	0.46	0.55	0.41	4	7.7
CLE	0.35	0.52	0.33	3	6.0
CIN	0.19	0.52	0.18	0	1.4
AFC S
TEN	0.57	0.46	0.62	7	12.5
IND	0.49	0.43	0.56	3	8.1
JAX	0.43	0.44	0.48	3	7.4
HOU	0.43	0.48	0.45	3	7.0
AFC W
SD	0.74	0.44	0.78	3	9.2
DEN	0.45	0.53	0.42	4	7.8
OAK	0.38	0.53	0.35	2	5.1
KC	0.17	0.56	0.14	1	2.3
NFC E
WAS	0.82	0.50	0.82	6	12.5
PHI	0.80	0.52	0.79	4	11.1
NYG	0.68	0.66	0.52	6	10.7
DAL	0.62	0.58	0.54	5	9.3
NFC N
CHI	0.69	0.45	0.74	4	10.6
GB	0.49	0.54	0.45	4	8.0
MIN	0.50	0.49	0.50	3	7.5
DET	0.16	0.58	0.13	0	1.1
NFC S
CAR	0.75	0.50	0.75	6	12.0
TB	0.63	0.50	0.63	5	10.1
ATL	0.62	0.56	0.57	4	9.1
NO	0.65	0.51	0.63	4	9.1
NFC W
ARI	0.58	0.52	0.56	4	9.1
STL	0.32	0.50	0.32	2	4.9
SEA	0.31	0.58	0.25	2	4.2
SF	0.32	0.55	0.28	2	4.2