Live NCAA Basketball Win Probability

Live win probability for the NCAA basketball championship games is available now at wp.advancednflstats.com/bball. (Final games are here. Games from the previous day are here.)

The model's approach is very similar to my football model. Basketball is a much simpler sport, though. There's no field position, down, or distance in basketball. Score and time remaining are really the only significant factors.

Epic Bulls-Celtics Series

If you haven’t been paying attention to this series you’re missing one of the most exciting 7-game series ever, even if it’s just the first round.

Going into Thursday night’s game, there were already 3 OT games and 1 last second buzzer-beater game. Then this happened: A 3OT potential elimination game that featured multiple furious comebacks for both teams and ultimately tied the series 3-3 with a 1-point win by Chicago. These two teams are as evenly matched as it gets. They square off for Game 7 tonight at 8.



Here are all 6 games of the series so far.

Compared to basketball or football, the hockey graphs aren't as compelling at first glance, at least during the game. But a quick look at a graph after the game tells a dramatic story you just won’t get with a box score. Below is Thursday night’s Game 1 between Chicago and Vancouver.

5-3? Well, that doesn’t sound terribly exciting. But check out what happened: 3-0 lead held until the third period. With 10 minutes left in the game, another goal, and with 5 min left another to tie it 3-3. Then Vancouver gets the game-winning goal with less than 2 min to go. Then in the final seconds, a garbage goal with the goalie pulled makes it 5-3.


You can check out the beta version of the hockey graphs for today's Caps-Penguins and Blackhawks-Canucks games. Power plays have not been factored in yet, but that's in progress, and it should be ready early next week.