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Weekly game probabilities for week 5 are now up at Sports on Earth. Probabilities are now purely based on current-season stats.
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
Everyday during the month of October, I'll be marking the re-launch of AFA by highlighting a feature here at the site. To help re-build the AFA community, please spread the word. Tell your friends and follow AFA on Twitter, Facebook, or via RSS.
The very first feature I'll highlight is the Advanced Team Stat Visualization. That's a mouthful, but it's just a really simple way to get a picture of the entire league at a glance. The viz plots each team according to their offensive and defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per Game. Good offenses are to the right, and good defenses are up on the plot. So teams toward the top-right are the best performing all-around teams.
This week's rankings saw fairly significant shifts, as one might expect this early in the season. At this time last season, only six of the original top 10 remained in the upper third. However, only two of the bottom 10 moved into the upper half, suggesting that the early cellar-dwellars are likely to flounder all year.
That pattern holds scary implications for a couple teams, something we will touch on later. Of the bottom 10 teams from this time last year, only San Francisco rebounded to post a winning record. Still, that does not mean teams at the top will remain in the penthouse, as the Texans, Titans and Falcons will attest to.
I didn't see any complaints about this write-up format last week, so we'll dive deeper into a few surprises generated by the rankings, as well as teams that jump out for some quirky statistical pattern. Still, feel free to critique this format now and as the season moves along. I'm nothing if not a man of the people.