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Welcome to the new home of AFA. Things are a little different, but as you can tell all the features are in their usual places. I tried to keep the changes to a minimum.
As I redesigned the site with a new look and feel I realized there was nothing wrong with the old one, so I'm keeping as much of the old design as I can. I prefer clean, well-organized sites without a lot of clutter. I don't like the way ads clutter things up, so I've removed most of them.
You probably noticed the Login menu item up there. That's one of the main reasons the site needed to switch platforms. The log ins are for team and media clients to access special features and tools of the site. This includes direct access to the simulation engine and the new win probability model. The new format will allow much greater flexibility with fan-oriented content as well.
Feel free to create an account, but for now it doesn't get you anything. In a few days I plan to have registered users be able to skip the spam controls in the comments. There will be some additional benefits as well. Don't worry--I won't spam you for any reason.
But rest assured that all content you have come to expect including the tools, widgets, models, calculators, articles, and stats will remain free. A couple of the features from the old site are still being migrated, such as the WP graph archive from previous seasons. But everything will be available here soon.
The Eagles lost to the 49ers on Sunday 26-21 in what essentially came down to two plays by the Eagles on 3rd and 4th-and-Goal from just outside the 1-yard line. There is no denying it was a close game - even though the Eagles offense was unable to move the ball all day. The Eagles made a few interesting decisions - or lack of decisions - in the second half including not challenging a 3rd-down conversion reception and accepting a penalty on 3rd-and-3 after an incompletion. Let's examine each and see how they could have affected the Eagles' win probability, keeping in mind that in close games, every percentage point counts.
In case you miss the links I send out on Twitter, Deadspin's sub-site Regressing is running a series on the biggest plays of the week. I created a tool for them them lists the biggest plays in terms of Win Probability Added (WPA).
Reading the comments, people seem to take delight in the negative plays for whatever reason. Cutler's interceptions appear to invite a lot of anti-fans. There's also loyal fans who like to pile on the misfortunes of their own team out of frustration. I can see that this week with E.J. Manuel's bad day yesterday.
But keep in mind a "negative" play is all in the perspective. A bad play to an offense is a great play to a defense. Statistically, there is no good and bad. Manuel's interception to Watt was both a poor by play by a quarterback and an alert and athletic play by a defensive lineman.
If and when Regressing gets tired of posting these, I'll make the tool public so you can look up the most agonizing moments in your hometown team's season anytime you want.