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Everyday during the month of October, I'll be marking the re-launch of AFA by highlighting a feature here at the site. To help re-build the AFA community, please spread the word. Tell your friends and follow AFA on Twitter, Facebook, or via RSS.
MVP Visualization is probably a terrible name for this fun tool. I built after the regular season ended a couple years ago so I could avoid writing an All-AFA Team write up because, as long time readers know, I'd much rather be making models and crunching numbers than writing about making models and crunching numbers. The MVP Viz plots the top players at each position according to their cumulative Win Probability Added and Expected Points Added. The purpose was to identify the players who truly had the biggest impact on their team's outcomes. Players to the upper right have the biggest impacts. The players above the diagonal line have more WPA (game impact) than we'd expect given their EPA (score impact), meaning they tended to make more high-leverage or 'clutch' plays. Players below the diagonal had more of their production during low-leverage situations, commonly known as trash time.
I'll be completely honest and say there are only a few things on my own site I really look forward to seeing on Monday mornings, and this is one of them. If you want a real kick in the pants, click on the DEs and check out where J.J. Watt stands relative to the pack. Or click on 'all' years to see which players define the last decade and a half. The only thing I wish I could do is unite the players whose careers straddle multiple teams. For instance, Peyton Manning ranks as the clear #1 QB of the era just as a Colt. Plus, his time as a Bronco ranks 12th in the entire era. Amazing.
The viz goes back through the '99 season. In addition there are alternate tabs that rank each player with a simple bar chart. Have fun.
Here's the link: The Player Stats by Position Visualization, aka the MVP Viz.
AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis is by Harrison Chase and Kurt Bullard.
Around the middle of the season every year, speculation rises among disgruntled fan bases regarding whether the head coach of their beloved team will get the ax by the end of the season. For no coach has this been truer over the past years than Rex Ryan, especially this season. Since opening the season with a five-point win over the Raiders, the Ryan-led squad had dropped five straight before heading into Thursday’s matchup against the Patriots, including a 31-0 shutout at the hands of the Chargers. Adding to the embarrassment of that game was the admission from Michael Vick that he hadn’t adequately prepared for the week’s game. After Thursday’s close loss to the Patriots—which is always a big game in the Jets schedule—we wondered what Rex Ryan’s chances of skating through the year unscathed were and what he would have to do in order to have a decent shot at keeping his job.
The AFA podcast is back with a brand new episode featuring sports economist Dave Berri, author of “The Wages of Wins” and “Stumbling on Wins”. Dave and Dave begin with a discussion of the Detroit Lions recent success, and look at some of Professor Berri’s research on the predictive power of quarterback stats. Professor Berri then explains his views on the business of college football through the lens of labor economics and describes what it was like to testify during the Northwestern unionization hearings.Subscribe on iTunes and Stitcher