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Originally published at the Harvard Sports Analytics Collective
Last month, we tried to assess the probability that front offices from each team would fire their coach at the end of a season. While the methodology is laid out in the last post, we can quick summarize here: we found 14 quantitative variables related to team performance—including wins, career win percentage of the coach, and whether or not he made the playoffs that year—that significantly influenced the probability that a coach would lose his job in the upcoming offseason.
Weekly game probabilities for week 12 are now up at Sports on Earth. Probabilities are purely based on current-season stats including core efficiency rates, turnover rates, penalty rates, and are adjusted for opponent strength to-date.
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
Brian Burke is back on the podcast to answer reader and listener questions. Digging into the email and twitter archives, Brian and Dave dig up some of their favorite and most difficult to answer questions from the past few years. From the implications of intentional penalties to predicting kicker success, this episode covers a little bit of everything in the world of Advanced Football Analytics.Subscribe on iTunes and Stitcher
Search here for over 1,500 research and analysis articles at both the old site and the new site. Note: As Google re-indexes the old site, you may need to change the 'www...'. to 'archive...' in the link address to avoid a page not found error.
Digging into the email and twitter archives, Brian and Dave dig up some of their favorite and most difficult to answer questions from the past few years.