2008 Luckiest Teams

Here's the final ranking of lucky and unlucky teams for 2008. I estimate team luck by using my efficiency regression model to calculate each team's expected wins--how many wins a team can normally expect, on average, given their actual performance in offensive and defensive running, passing, turnovers, and penalties. Expected wins are adjusted for average opponent strength.

The difference between the expected wins and actual wins is what I loosely estimate as team luck. For a brief introduction on the concept, see this last post on the subject. For a more thorough but general discussion, see this essay on NFL luck. The executive summary is that there are good and bad breaks for every team in every game, and often they'll roughly even out, but many times they won't. The bottom line is that a 16-game season is far too short for all the breaks to even out. With 32 teams in the league, some are going to be luckier than others.

Tennessee, New England, and the New York Jets top the list of lucky dogs in 2008, while San Diego, Kansas City, and New Orleans appear to be among the unluckiest.

Now, I don't claim this is all luck. Part of it could be game-day coaching. For those critics out there of Norv Turner or Andy Reid, you can point to this and say they managed to take teams with some of the most spectacular statistical performances and make mediocre records. You could also make the opposite claim about Jeff Fisher or Bill Belichick.

Also of note are the 0-16 Detroit Lions. They could have been expected to win 1 or 2 games given their stats this year.

You can click on the headers any column to sort the table. I've included a division column so you can see how teams lucked-out compared to their division-mates.







































RankTeamExp. WAct. WLuckDiv
1 TEN10.513+2.5AS
2 NE8.911+2.1AE
3 NYJ7.09+2.0AE
4 SF5.27+1.8NW
5 BUF5.37+1.7AE
6 MIN8.410+1.6NN
7 IND10.612+1.4AS
8 NYG11.012+1.0NE
9 HOU7.08+1.0AS
10 CLE3.14+0.9AN
11 MIA10.111+0.9AE
12 ARI8.29+0.8NW
13 DEN7.58+0.5AW
14 BAL10.511+0.5AN
15 PIT11.912+0.1AN
16 JAX4.950.1AS
17 CHI9.090.0NN
18 OAK5.15-0.1AW
19 TB9.19-0.1NS
20 CIN4.74.5-0.2AN
21 DAL9.39-0.3NE
22 CAR12.512-0.5NS
23 ATL11.511-0.5NS
24 SEA4.54-0.5NW
25 STL2.82-0.8NW
26 DET1.80-1.8NN
27 WAS10.08-2.0NE
28 GB8.56-2.5NN
29 PHI12.19.5-2.6NE
30 NO10.78-2.7NS
31 KC4.92-2.9AW
32 SD11.48-3.4AW

2008 Final Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.






































RANKTEAMLAST WKGWPOpp GWPO RANKD RANK
1 CAR10.790.5546
2 PHI20.770.52112
3 PIT30.750.53201
4 ATL40.730.54317
5 SD50.720.53110
6 NYG60.690.53213
7 NO80.680.55519
8 IND120.680.49715
9 TEN70.670.46154
10 BAL110.670.52173
11 MIA90.640.44620
12 WAS100.630.511211
13 DAL140.590.53168
14 TB130.580.55199
15 CHI150.570.51227
16 NE160.570.471324
17 GB170.540.511418
18 MIN190.530.52235
19 ARI180.520.50923
20 DEN200.480.50827
21 HOU220.450.501028
22 NYJ210.450.452412
23 BUF240.340.442722
24 SEA280.340.473014
25 OAK270.330.562916
26 JAX230.320.501830
27 KC260.310.532126
28 CIN290.300.553221
29 SF250.290.492525
30 CLE300.200.572829
31 STL310.180.522631
32 DET320.120.573132




To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.






































TEAMOPASSORUNOINTRATEOFUMRATEDPASSDRUNDINTRATEPENRATE
ARI7.13.50.0240.0286.54.00.0250.39
ATL7.44.40.0250.0156.04.90.0180.29
BAL6.04.00.0280.0255.13.60.0490.40
BUF5.94.20.0310.0346.34.30.0200.28
CAR7.34.80.0290.0145.74.40.0220.32
CHI5.53.90.0270.0165.93.40.0350.29
CIN4.33.60.0290.0276.33.90.0240.30
CLE4.63.90.0410.0247.14.50.0520.35
DAL6.64.30.0370.0325.34.20.0160.49
DEN7.14.80.0290.0197.05.00.0120.37
DET5.33.80.0370.0367.95.10.0090.38
GB6.64.10.0240.0236.04.60.0420.49
HOU7.34.30.0360.0286.94.50.0250.34
IND6.83.40.0210.0105.94.20.0310.32
JAX5.84.20.0240.0217.34.00.0280.42
KC5.44.80.0300.0227.05.00.0250.32
MIA7.04.20.0140.0176.24.20.0330.34
MIN6.04.50.0380.0286.03.30.0230.35
NE6.14.40.0210.0166.44.10.0300.25
NO7.74.00.0280.0186.44.20.0290.39
NYG6.15.00.0200.0175.84.00.0340.42
NYJ5.94.70.0430.0246.13.70.0240.28
OAK5.24.30.0260.0336.44.70.0340.42
PHI6.24.00.0260.0155.13.50.0290.31
PIT5.93.70.0300.0264.33.30.0380.41
SD7.74.10.0230.0176.34.00.0250.38
SF6.04.00.0370.0436.13.80.0220.37
SEA5.14.20.0320.0216.94.20.0160.30
STL5.24.00.0370.0237.34.90.0270.37
TB6.14.10.0230.0205.94.30.0460.42
TEN6.14.30.0200.0195.23.70.0350.43
WAS5.54.40.0120.0205.83.80.0250.33
Avg6.14.20.0280.0236.24.20.0280.36