Standings Forecast Week 8

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.














































TEAM GWP
Fut Opp GWPProj GWPCurr WProj W
AFC E
BUF0.630.390.72511.5
MIA0.670.370.77310.0
NYJ0.460.470.4948.4
NE0.350.530.3257.9
AFC N
PIT0.630.510.62510.6
BAL0.460.550.4147.7
CLE0.350.520.3336.0
CIN0.190.520.1801.4
AFC S
TEN0.570.460.62712.5
IND0.490.430.5638.1
JAX0.430.440.4837.4
HOU0.430.480.4537.0
AFC W
SD0.740.440.7839.2
DEN0.450.530.4247.8
OAK0.380.530.3525.1
KC0.170.560.1412.3
NFC E
WAS0.820.500.82612.5
PHI0.800.520.79411.1
NYG0.680.660.52610.7
DAL0.620.580.5459.3
NFC N
CHI0.690.450.74410.6
GB0.490.540.4548.0
MIN0.500.490.5037.5
DET0.160.580.1301.1
NFC S
CAR0.750.500.75612.0
TB0.630.500.63510.1
ATL0.620.560.5749.1
NO0.650.510.6349.1
NFC W
ARI0.580.520.5649.1
STL0.320.500.3224.9
SEA0.310.580.2524.2
SF0.320.550.2824.2

Week 9 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 9 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.




















PwinGAMEPwin
0.26 NYJ at BUF
0.74
0.06 DET at CHI0.94
0.69 JAX at CIN0.31
0.52 BAL at CLE0.48
0.33 GB at TEN0.67
0.66 ARI at STL0.34
0.34 HOU at MIN0.66
0.85 TB at KC0.15
0.63 MIA at DEN0.37
0.66 ATL at OAK0.34
0.35 DAL at NYG0.65
0.86 PHI at SEA0.14
0.28 NE at IND0.72
0.21 PIT at WAS0.79