Playoff Probabilities Week 16

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Quite a few people thought I was nuts when I said Miami and San Diego had the inside tracks on winning their divisions halfway through the season. If there was ever a week to have 'Sunday Ticket,' this would be it. Eight of the 16 games have do-or-die playoff consequences--not just seeding implications. Eleven of the 32 teams are still on the playoff bubble in the final week of the season.




















































AFC EAST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
MIA6115240
NE2461150
NYJ1524610
BUF000100
AFC NORTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
PIT100000
BAL010000
CIN005446
CLE004654
AFC SOUTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
TEN100000
IND010000
HOU001000
JAX000100
AFC WEST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
SD782200
DEN227800
OAK001000
KC000100
NFC EAST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NYG100000
PHI075719
WAS007327
DAL0252154
NFC NORTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
MIN663400
CHI346600
GB001000
DET000100
NFC SOUTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
CAR554600
ATL465500
TB001000
NO000100
NFC WEST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
ARI100000
SF010000
SEA001000
STL000100





























AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
TEN10000000100
PIT01000000100
IND00001000100
BAL000008989
SD000780078
MIA006100061
NE002400731
DEN000220022
NYJ001500419
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NYG10000000100
CAR05500460100
ATL04600541100
ARI00010000100
MIN006600066
TB000006363
CHI003400338
DAL000012425
PHI0000099

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3 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Week 16”

  1. Anonymous says:

    The playoff probability for Dallas seems low. All they have to do is beat the Eagles. Are you saying there's only a 25% chance they do that?

  2. Anonymous says:

    Yup

  3. Brian Burke says:

    I've got PHI as a better team plus HFA.

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