Playoff Probabilities Week 16

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Quite a few people thought I was nuts when I said Miami and San Diego had the inside tracks on winning their divisions halfway through the season. If there was ever a week to have 'Sunday Ticket,' this would be it. Eight of the 16 games have do-or-die playoff consequences--not just seeding implications. Eleven of the 32 teams are still on the playoff bubble in the final week of the season.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
MIA	61	15	24	0
NE	24	61	15	0
NYJ	15	24	61	0
BUF	0	0	0	100
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
PIT	100	0	0	0
BAL	0	100	0	0
CIN	0	0	54	46
CLE	0	0	46	54
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
TEN	100	0	0	0
IND	0	100	0	0
HOU	0	0	100	0
JAX	0	0	0	100
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SD	78	22	0	0
DEN	22	78	0	0
OAK	0	0	100	0
KC	0	0	0	100
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NYG	100	0	0	0
PHI	0	75	7	19
WAS	0	0	73	27
DAL	0	25	21	54
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
MIN	66	34	0	0
CHI	34	66	0	0
GB	0	0	100	0
DET	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
CAR	55	46	0	0
ATL	46	55	0	0
TB	0	0	100	0
NO	0	0	0	100
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
ARI	100	0	0	0
SF	0	100	0	0
SEA	0	0	100	0
STL	0	0	0	100

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
TEN	100	0	0	0	0	0	100
PIT	0	100	0	0	0	0	100
IND	0	0	0	0	100	0	100
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	89	89
SD	0	0	0	78	0	0	78
MIA	0	0	61	0	0	0	61
NE	0	0	24	0	0	7	31
DEN	0	0	0	22	0	0	22
NYJ	0	0	15	0	0	4	19
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NYG	100	0	0	0	0	0	100
CAR	0	55	0	0	46	0	100
ATL	0	46	0	0	54	1	100
ARI	0	0	0	100	0	0	100
MIN	0	0	66	0	0	0	66
TB	0	0	0	0	0	63	63
CHI	0	0	34	0	0	3	38
DAL	0	0	0	0	1	24	25
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	9	9