Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.
AFC EAST | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 56 | 19 | 25 | 0 |
![]() | 9 | 55 | 36 | 0 |
![]() | 35 | 26 | 39 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
AFC NORTH | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 78 | 22 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 22 | 78 |
AFC SOUTH | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 98 | 2 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 2 | 98 |
AFC WEST | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 90 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 10 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 93 | 7 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 7 | 93 |
NFC EAST | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 50 | 41 | 10 |
![]() | 0 | 50 | 40 | 10 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 20 | 80 |
NFC NORTH | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 84 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 16 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
NFC SOUTH | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 80 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
![]() | 11 | 49 | 41 | 0 |
![]() | 10 | 39 | 52 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
NFC WEST | ||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
![]() | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 98 | 2 | 0 |
![]() | 0 | 2 | 97 | 1 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 1 | 99 |
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
![]() | 52 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
![]() | 48 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 7 | 99 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 90 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 70 | 76 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 58 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 40 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
![]() | 50 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
![]() | 50 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 99 |
![]() | 0 | 8 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
![]() | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 29 | 69 |
![]() | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 23 | 65 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 18 | 41 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 26 |
![]() | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |