Playoff Probabilities Week 15

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
MIA	56	19	25	0
NE	9	55	36	0
NYJ	35	26	39	0
BUF	0	0	0	100
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
PIT	100	0	0	0
BAL	0	100	0	0
CLE	0	0	78	22
CIN	0	0	22	78
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
TEN	100	0	0	0
IND	0	100	0	0
HOU	0	0	98	2
JAX	0	0	2	98
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DEN	90	10	0	0
SD	10	90	0	0
OAK	0	0	93	7
KC	0	0	7	93
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NYG	100	0	0	0
DAL	0	50	41	10
PHI	0	50	40	10
WAS	0	0	20	80
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
MIN	84	16	0	0
CHI	16	84	0	0
GB	0	0	100	0
DET	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
CAR	80	12	8	0
TB	11	49	41	0
ATL	10	39	52	0
NO	0	0	0	100
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
ARI	100	0	0	0
SF	0	98	2	0
SEA	0	2	97	1
STL	0	0	1	99

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
TEN	52	48	0	0	0	0	100
PIT	48	52	0	0	0	0	100
IND	0	0	0	0	92	7	99
DEN	0	0	2	88	0	0	90
BAL	0	0	0	0	6	70	76
MIA	0	0	56	0	0	2	58
NYJ	0	0	33	2	0	5	40
NE	0	0	9	0	2	16	27
SD	0	0	0	10	0	0	10
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NYG	50	44	6	0	0	0	100
ARI	0	0	11	89	0	0	100
CAR	50	27	2	0	10	9	99
MIN	0	8	65	11	0	0	84
ATL	0	10	0	0	30	29	69
TB	0	11	0	0	31	23	65
DAL	0	0	0	0	23	18	41
PHI	0	0	0	0	6	20	26
CHI	0	0	16	0	0	0	16