Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Miami 61 22 17 0 New England 9 51 39 1 NY Jets 30 27 41 2 Buffalo 0 0 3 97 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 87 13 0 0 Baltimore 13 87 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 97 3 Cincinnati 0 0 3 97 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tennessee 100 0 0 0 Indianapolis 0 100 0 0 Houston 0 0 95 5 Jacksonville 0 0 5 95 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 92 8 0 0 San Diego 8 92 0 0 Oakland 0 0 86 14 Kansas City 0 0 14 86 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Giants 100 0 0 0 Philadelphia 0 48 31 20 Washington 0 30 30 40 Dallas 0 21 38 40 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Minnesota 62 36 2 0 Chicago 33 53 14 0 Green Bay 4 12 84 0 Detroit 0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Carolina 64 27 9 0 Tampa Bay 24 41 34 1 Atlanta 12 32 43 14 New Orleans 0 0 14 85 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Arizona 100 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 98 2 0 Seattle 0 1 76 22 St Louis 0 0 22 78 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Tennessee 81 19 0 0 0 0 100 Pittsburgh 19 67 0 0 2 11 100 Indianapolis 0 0 0 0 84 14 98 Baltimore 0 13 0 0 13 67 94 Denver 0 0 6 86 0 0 92 Miami 0 0 60 1 0 1 62 NY Jets 0 0 25 5 0 2 32 New England 0 0 9 0 0 5 14 San Diego 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 Buffalo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Houston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total NY Giants 72 27 0 0 0 0 100 Arizona 0 4 73 23 0 0 100 Carolina 27 36 0 0 24 9 96 Tampa Bay 0 20 3 0 28 19 72 Minnesota 0 1 18 43 0 0 62 Atlanta 0 12 0 0 28 16 57 Chicago 0 0 4 29 0 0 33 Philadelphia 0 0 0 0 6 22 29 Washington 0 0 0 0 5 18 23 Dallas 0 0 0 0 8 13 21 Green Bay 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 New Orleans 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seattle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Playoff Probabilities Week 14
published on 12/11/2008
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