Weekly Game Probabilities

Weekly game probabilities for week 3 are now up at Sports on Earth. Probabilities are a blend of the pre-season team strength estimates with a moderate dose of stats from week 1 and 2.

Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.

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6 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilities”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Echoing the other comments from previous weeks. Would be good to get a table at the end that shows the games as rows and Machine, Man, Vegas as columns. Just a good way to intuitively sum it up.

  2. Anonymous says:

    New England with only 61% chance to beat Oakland at home? That's pretty shocking - it implies the Pats are only marginally a better team than the Raiders.

    Brian, are you sure home field isn't reversed or something?

  3. Brian Burke says:

    NE's off stats are abominable. I can't fudge things.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Brian Burke says:

    NE's off stats are abominable. I can't fudge things.

    Well, other than "blending" some preseason stuff with weeks 1 and 2.

  5. Anonymous says:

    @Anon - surely you mean last season. Preseason has absolutely no predictive value.

  6. Brian Burke says:

    Nice smear, Mr. Anonymous. Preseason ratings are directly from the season projection project I did for ESPN.

    Ironically, NE is the team most helped by their pre-season expectation.

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