Alex Smith: Counterexample

I think that in almost all cases if a young QB doesn't demonstrate consistent above average performance within a couple seasons, he's not worth sticking with. It's very uncommon for a young QB to toil for several years of below average performance and then suddenly blossom into a winner. Coaches and GMs, analysts, and fans alike all make excuses for poorly performing QBs. They have no 'weapons', no line, the wrong scheme, and so on. Those are certainly valid considerations, but it's the QB himself that mostly drives his numbers.

Sure, you might be able to point to a QB here or there who came on strong to become a consistently above-average player several years his starting career, but for every guy like that (Steve Young might be the most notable) I'll give you multiple Joey Harringtons, Kyle Bollers, Rex Grossmans, and David Carrs.

Alex Smith would have been on that list too, at least until the last couple seasons. He might be the exception to the rule. After Smith's phenomenal game Monday night in which he went 18 for 19 with three TDs, I wondered what really made the difference. A lot of credit has been given to second-year head coach Jim Harbaugh and a new offensive scheme. It's hard to argue otherwise, but I will anyway. Looking at his career trends, he began a significant and consistent improving trend immediately following his missed season of 2008. His improvement from 2009 to 2010 in terms of WPA, EPA, SR, and AYPA under Singletary was as big as his improvement in 2011 after Harbaugh took over. It's as if Smith has had two different careers, a brief, erratic, injury-plagued three-year span from 2005 to 2007, and a middling but improving span since 2009.

Ray Lewis - Dominant Playmaker of His Era

No one needs statistical analysis to tell us Ray Lewis is an all-time great. A case has been made that he was the greatest linebacker of all time. Until this season, possibly his last, he showed little signs of aging. But age and a triceps tear may now have ended his amazing career.

Ray Lewis is the kind of player you absolutely need to watch with your own eyes to appreciate  Stats, advanced or otherwise, do him no justice. If you ever get the opportunity, watch the replays of the 2000 season's Super Bowl or any game from that year. Ray Lewis was super-humanly fast and powerful.

As a fan who'd watched more than his share of football, I was trained to expect patterns. Here's the same old hand off up the middle, RB sees a hole, cuts, 5 yard gain. Pitch to the outside, RB tries to turn the corner, squeezes around the DE, turns up field, might break off a big run if he can shake a tackler. Play action, 10-yd pass to the TE over the middle. Let's face it. A really big chunk of NFL football is predictably boring.

But watching Lewis at his peak confuses the brain. The rules and patterns of typical NFL plays that we expect to see were broken. Instead of RB sees a hole, cuts, 5 yard gain--it's RB sees a hole, cuts, 5-yd...OH MY EVERLIVING GOD! WHAT THE F?!! JESUS HAVE MERCY. WHAT WAS THAT?!!! Ray Lewis just penetrated from the back side of the play and dragged down the RB from behind for a 2-yd loss.

You know those video games like Madden football that usually have some sort of 'cheat code' that allows players to dial in invincibility or supernatural speed and strength attributes to their game characters? At his peak, Lewis was just like that. Lewis had the cheat code of reality in his DNA.

Although numbers aren't required, that's never stopped us before. So here are +EPA numbers for the top producing LBs of the NFL digital era. (Data begins in 2000). Except for the column on the far right, all numbers are per game averages. The right-most column is the player's grand total for the era.

Although this doesn't show us career numbers before 2000, they still show how dominant and consistent Lewis was among his peers. Even well into his mid-thirties, he was among the very top play-makers.

Peyton Manning Measures Up In Broncos Debut

There was an unfamiliar air of uncertainty surrounding Peyton Manning's debut as a Denver Bronco on Sunday night. From 1999 through 2010, Manning defined the quarterback position, throwing for over 50,000 yards with an adjusted net yards per passing attempt (per Pro-Football-Reference) of 7.24. Only Philip Rivers's 7.26 mark bests Manning, and Rivers did it in 112 fewer starts and with a higher percentage of his play coming in the recent League of the Quarterback.

For the first time since Manning opened 2010 with the Colts, we really just didn't know what to expect. Sure, "he's Peyton Manning," but multiple neck surgeries have the potential to derail any sports career, uch less one as fragile as NFL quarterback. There was talk he had become a reverse Zoolander -- instead of losing his ability to turn left, rumors mounted that Manning had lost the ability to throw to his right.

In that case, Sunday night's performance against the Steelers was Manning's Magnum.