Lambeau Madness & Twitter Outcries

With a little over five minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, down 17-14 to the Steelers, the Packers had their field goal blocked only to have chaos unleashed at Lambeau. I won't go into the details, but essentially it was ruled that the Steelers never had full possession (when they did and should have been determined down by contact) and then due to an illegal batting out of bounds, the Packers got the ball back with a fresh set of downs, 1st-and-Goal from the 2-yard line.

All holy heck has broken loose in Green Bay.
— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) December 22, 2013

Twitter erupted. Everyone was outraged at the blasphemous call. And even more, everyone was outraged that possession was an unchallengeable call. All over the place, people were comparing it to the Seattle/Green Bay replacement ref debacle from last season.

Playoff Projections - Week 15

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 15's biggest movers

All of the major action this week was in the NFC North. Detroit fell a huge 51% due to their loss to Baltimore, which was compounded by victories for Green Bay and Chicago. All 3 games were decided by 7 points or less. With a little more luck Detroit could have been a huge favorite in the division at this point; instead, they are in 3rd with a 20% chance. Because the Packers and Bears both have superior records and play each other in week 17, the Lions would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in either of their remaining games.

Playoff Projections - Week 14

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 14's biggest movers

Dallas took a major hit by losing to Chicago. Coupled with Philadelphia's win against Detroit, this caused the Cowboys' playoff odds to drop 18%.

San Francisco's big win over the rival Seahawks propelled them to their current 93% playoff probability. The jump came mostly at the expense of the Panthers, who lost their big rivalry game against the Saints. The Saints are now one game up on the Panthers and considered a much better team by the ANS model, so a New Orleans divisional championship is now deemed 95% likely.

Playoff Projections - Week 13

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 13's biggest movers

With a little help, Miami was able to boost their playoff probability 29%. A victory over the Jets plus losses by the Steelers, Titans, and Chargers made the Dolphins the clear favorite for the AFC 6th slot.

Playoff Projections - Week 12

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 12's biggest movers

Capitalizing on Washington's anemic passing performance, San Francisco ended its losing streak. Because Seattle has the West essentially wrapped up, the Cardinals and the loser of the South divisional race are San Francisco's primary rivals at this point. Until recently they also had to worry about the second place team in the north, but the top 3 teams in the division all going winless last week effectively ended that concern. Based on all this, the 49ers jumped 23% to a 67% playoff probability.

Playoff Projections - Week 11

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

San Francisco and Green Bay fall

After week 8, we gave the 49ers a 94% chance of making the playoffs. Two losses have contributed to their current odds of 44%, but they are also being squeezed out of wild card contention by the success of their peers. The simultaneous win streaks by the Panthers and Cardinals led to jumps in playoff probability of 41% and 26%, respectively, in that 3 week span. At this point, their best hope is sneaking in to that 6th NFC slot.

Green Bay's third straight loss has put them in a similar situation. What was an 83% chance 3 weeks ago is now just 33%. They have a relatively easy game against the Vikings this week before the crucial Thanksgiving match up versus the Lions.

Playoff Projections - Week 10

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Week 10's big movers

Because New Orleans won, Carolina's chances of winning the division stayed pretty static, but the chances of a Panthers wild card berth sky rocketed. The 32% bump came almost entirely at the expense of the team they beat, San Francisco. Both teams are now 6-3 but Carolina holds the head-to-head tie breaker, which is especially significant because neither team is likely to win its division. San Francisco now only has a 4% chance of beating out the Seahawks in the West.

Playoff Projections - Week 9

All of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

Chicago at Green Bay, Week 8's biggest game

This game turned out to be even more important than we said it would be last week. Chicago's victory gave them a 23% boost in their playoff chances, and perhaps just as satisfying for Bears fans, dropped Green Bay's odds by 19%. The division title is much less secure now, with both the Lions and Bears within reach of that top spot.

Playoff Projections - Week 8

Just like past years, all of the numbers below come from Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com. His app uses the win probabilities from the ANS team efficiency model to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining NFL games thousands of times. Based on current records, our estimates of team strength, and knowledge of the NFL's tie breaking procedures we can come up with some pretty interesting predictions of how each team will fare come the end of the season. If you want to use a different model or just fiddle with the numbers by hand, go ahead and download the app yourself.

What is the deal with these numbers?

This is our first look at playoff projections this year so it seems like a good time to talk about how good these predictions really are. Like all models, this one has limitations. Here are some of the issues that will come up.

Playoff Projections - Week 16

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

It's always fun to go back earlier in the season to see how far off the initial projections were. In Week 9, the projected division winners in the AFC were NE, PIT, HOU, and DEN. (BAL and PIT were about 50/50, as were NE and MIA(!).) The most likely wildcards were BAL and MIA. OAK looked to be a better shot than either IND or CIN. Ouch.

In the NFC the forecast winners were NYG, CHI, ATL, and SF, although CHI was only at 50%. The NFC wildcards were GB and SEA. Not too shabby.

Playoff Projections - Week 15 *Updated*

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Playoff Forecast - Week 12

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Last week belonged to CIN, who added 17 percentage points to their overall playoff chances. This was thanks to a chain of events almost all of which favored the Bengals. PIT, MIA, and IND all lost while CIN won big themselves.

PIT and MIA tied for the biggest overall drop at 10 percentage points due to the same combination of events.

On the NFC side, GB jumped up 16% while D ET dropped 12%.

Postseason Projections: Conference Round

We'd previously warned that the eventual winner of the NFC East was not to be underestimated in the postseason, and the Giants showed why in last Sunday's win over the Packers. By a slim margin, the model now sees the Giants as the strongest of the four remaining teams, though their advantage is lessened by the fact that they will have to meet the 49ers on the road. Overall, the model now gives New York about one chance in three to win the Super Bowl, odds on par with those of the Patriots.

None of the remaining teams is particularly dominant at this point and none is a complete long shot. San Francisco, with the lowest probability of a Super Bowl win, is still given a 15% chance. And now, submitted for your approval, the final postseason projections of the 2011 season, with the table below listing each team's percent probability—first of advancing to the Super Bowl and then of winning the whole thing. Enjoy.

Percent Probability to Advance
Team	Super Bowl	Sup Bowl Champion
NE	64	35
BAL	36	18
SF	41	15
NYG	59	32

Postseason Projections: Divisional Round

The results of the ever-so-wild Wild Card Weekend shifted the postseason probabilities around somewhat. Without lifting a finger, New England's probability of a Super Bowl appearance increased from 32 to 47%, while Green Bay's probability declined slightly, from 40 to 36%. The model still considers both #1 seeds to be the most likely teams to emerge from their respective conferences.

The Texans and the Tebows
Now that the Steelers are out, the Houston Texans, led by the inimitable TJ Yates, are the highest-ranked team remaining in the playoff field. The difficulty of their path to the Super Bowl—Baltimore and then (most likely) New England, both on the road—makes them only the fourth most likely team to come away with a Super Bowl win, however. Meanwhile, the game probability model stubbornly refuses to accept the fact that All Tebow Does Is Win, giving Denver Super Bowl odds of slightly worse than two hundred to one.

Postseason Projections: Wild Card Round

And then there were twelve. After 17 weeks and 256 games, the field has been winnowed and the playoff bracket is set. For the postseason, we can skip the simulations and calculate each team's chances directly from the win probability model.

Most Likely Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Packers
This shouldn't be much of a surprise. The trifecta of a highly-ranked team, a bye week, and home-field advantage is not easy to overcome, and the model projects the two #1 seeds as the most likely teams to emerge from their respective conferences. That said, there is an 87% probability that at least one of these two will not make it to Super Bowl XLVI.

Longest of Long Shots: Denver Broncos
It seems even three consecutive losses is not enough to put a damper on Tebow-mania. Denver's odds of winning the Super Bowl are variously listed as anywhere from 50/1 to 120/1, but, regardless, the Broncos are still over-valued, with the model estimating their true probability of a Super Bowl win to be less than one in eight hundred.

Playoff Probabilities: Week 17

With the final week of the regular season upon us, it's time to see where things stand for the playoff contenders. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season thousands of times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

The AFC West & Wild Card

All sorts of advanced degrees are required to parse the melange of tiebreakers and scenarios that surround the final two playoff spots in the AFC. The Bengals, Jets, and Titans are all still eligible for the final wild card spot, in addition to the Raiders, who also could beat out the Broncos for the AFC West. There are plenty of places to get the full breakdown of the various clinching scenarios, but let's skip all the "strength-of-victory" and "if-then-and-unless" chatter and cut straight to the numbers:

Playoff Probabilities: Week 16

With just two weeks left to play, it's crunch time for the teams on the playoff bubble. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season thousands of times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Amazingly, 22 teams are still eligible for a playoff spot. Seven have clinched. Five "control their own destiny." The remaining ten—most of which sit on the brink of elimination this week—need various degrees of help to get into the postseason.

High Leverage Games of the Week

New York Giants at New York Jets | Saturday, December 24 | 1:00 pm ET
Philadelphia at Dallas | Saturday, December 24 | 4:15 pm ET

The seasons of all four of these teams hang in the balance of these two games. The Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles all remain in contention for the division title in the NFC East, and the Jets are currently holding on to the last wild card spot in the AFC (the Ravens/Steelers have the #5 seed locked up between them). As far as the NFC East goes, the results of these two games are so inextricably linked that it only makes sense to look at them together. The table below lists each team's respective probability of making the playoffs given each of the four possible combinations of game outcomes.

Playoff Probabilities: Week 15

Another crazy weekend in the NFL last week, as wins by both the Broncos and Giants resulted in huge swings in the playoff probabilities. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

While the Cowboys' overall probability dropped by 30 points following their loss to the Giants, chances are that their ultimate playoff fate won't be decided until the teams meet again in Week 17. For the Giants to clinch the division before then, they'd have to win both of their games and Dallas would have to lose to Philadelphia (14% probability). For Dallas to clinch before then, they'd have to win their next two games while the Giants lose both of theirs (5% probability). In total, there is a four in five chance that the NFC East will be decided the final week of the season. Mark your calendars.

Playoff Probabilities: Week 14

This week's edition of playoff probabilities debuts new tables indicating each team's probability of advancing to a given round of the playoffs. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

The Broncos continue their upward climb toward the postseason. Their win last week (coupled with a Raiders' loss) increased Denver's overall playoff probability 25 points to 61%, including a 55% chance to win their division and open the postseason at home.

With four games left to play, pretty much every game is a high-leverage game for teams in contention. Cincinnati has an opportunity for a big win against the Texans; Detroit is playing a game against the Vikings they do not want to lose; and if Baltimore wants to win the race for the AFC South, they certainly don't want to drop a game to the Colts. But two games in particular stand out as especially important this week.

Playoff Probabilities: Week 13

Welcome to this week's edition of playoff probabilities, in which we bastardize Bible verses and take a closer look at the NFC wild card race all in the same post! As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Let us therefore come boldly to the throne of Tebow, that we may obtain touchdowns and find victory in time of need. (Broncos 4:16)

In addition to further feuling Tebow-mania, Denver's win in last week's high-leverage game bumped the Broncos' overall playoff probability up 18 points to 36%, putting them right in the middle of things in the AFC. And no one's loving it more than this guy. On the other side of the ball, after starting the season 4-1, San Diego's sixth straight loss all but eliminated them from playoff contention, dropping them 14 percentage points to just 1%.

In the NFC, meanwhile, the Falcons were the big winner, as an Atlanta win combined with losses by both Detroit and Chicago to leave all three teams at 7-4 and tied for the lead in the NFC wild card race. Below we'll take a look at each team's remaining schedule in turn. The number in parentheses is their overall playoff probability, and, for reference, I've listed the degree of difficulty (DOD) of their remaining schedule, obtained by averaging the GWP of their remaining opponents after adjusting to reflect home-field advantage.