Game Changers: Santonio Goes Down

The Situation
49ers at Jets, Week 4
Jets' ball, start of 4th quarter

Jets Lose on Dolphins' Epic Drive

The Dolphins, with nothing to play for but respect, eliminated their division rival Jets from playoff contention on Sunday.  Miami was down 10-6 with 7:56 left in the 3rd when they went on an epic 94-yard, 21-play, 12+ minute go-ahead drive.  Yes, a 21-play drive, tiring out Rex Ryan's prized defense.  Highlighted by six 3rd down conversions, there was a 73% chance of the drive ending in a punt and only 6% chance of a TD on 3rd-and-9 from their own 7-yardline (Play 3).  Using our Markov model, we can see the progression of the drive - and the progression of the Jets' demise.

Selected Recap: Ravens 34, Jets 17: All The Turnovers

Sunday Night Football, ostensibly, gives a primetime view to what should be a great matchup between two of the league's top teams. Sometimes, this ideal is foiled by circumstances outside of the team's control -- take, for example, Peyton Manning's injury lowering the quality of Week 3's Steelers-Colts matchup. But sometimes, a good matchup is there, and both teams play ugly, ugly football.

This was certainly the case in Week 4's Sunday Night matchup, as both the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets combined to fail to produce a 100 yard runner or a completion percentage over 33%. Both teams did manage to produce seven turnovers, however. This was the source of Baltimore's big victory: three of the four turnovers forced by the Ravens' defense turned into six points on the other end.