Perhaps one reason why rush efficiency does not correlate well with winning is that we are using rush averages. Averages are not always the best indicator of central tendency. There are also mode and median.
Median yards (per rush) may correlate better with winning than average yards. Averages can be skewed to varying degrees by outlier observations, such as breaking runs for long gains. These long runs may be very random and not well-related to general running ability. The median would measure consistency and ignore outlier runs.
Perhaps it's better to consistently gain 4.5 yds/run 4 times than to get 18 yds, -2 yds, 0 yds, and then 2 yds.
Too bad median stats are generally not published. It would probably be necessary to calculate median stats game by game, and run by run.
Median pass efficiency stats may correlate better than average pass efficiency stats too.
Theory on Rushing (Non)Importance
published on 3/19/2007
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