One of the reasons I have always supported and endorsed Brian Burke and his work at Advanced NFL Stats is his recognition of the limitations of statistical analysis. Ever since statistical analysis took baseball by storm and many of its most prominent practitioners were scooped up and employed by MLB franchises, there has been a crush to translate statistical analysis to other sports. And to varying extents, it has worked.
Football remains relatively impenetrable. It doesn’t have the binary pitcher-batter interface of baseball. Apart from maybe touchbacks, there are no true individual stats. One player’s name may appear beside a 20 yard reception but that reception is the product of: one player passing, one player receiving, x number of players running (ultimately) decoy routes, and y number of players blocking.
All those confounding factors tend to test the intuitiveness of advanced stats. Yes, Austin Collie was the second most valuable receiver by EPA/P, but, no, no one thinks Collie is the second most valuable receiver in football. Even aggregate EPA produces some head-scratchers. Was, for instance, Lance Moore truly more valuable than Marques Colston? Probably not, right? But we are short of information to explain exactly why. Keep in mind, a stat like EPA isn’t arguing that Moore is more valuable as a football players than Colston, only that passes targeting Moore were more valuable in toto than passes targeting Colston.
For the time being, advanced stats really must be combined with scouting to create a meaningful whole. However true that may be though and however long that may be true, that doesn’t mean stats are maxed out. There remains huge potential but some of that potential will never be realized unless the NFL itself improves its own stat keeping.
That is the subject of this piece.
- Home Archives for March 2011
Improving Statistical Analysis in the NFL
Top Ten Most Exciting Games of 2010 - Dolphins at Packers
You see.
The Packers week six loss is a story of spurned ambitions, sudden reversal and anticlimax. It feels essential within the greater narrative of the 2010 Packers. It was the second of consecutive overtime losses, both by field goals, that dropped the Packers to 3-3. It was among Aaron Rodger’s worst games of the season. It was his first following his first concussion of the season. He would suffer another in Week 14.
It was a loss, yet, in the associative, irrational, romantic human brain, it can now be interpreted as a story of manning up, hanging tough and accepting transient defeat in the pursuit of eternal glory. Heady stuff. But in the eternal present of an MP4 file, the Packers know only bitter defeat. Again and again. Forever.
Top Ten Most Exciting Games of 2010: Lions at Bears
Live NCAA Basketball Win Probability
Live win probability for the NCAA basketball championship games is available now at wp.advancednflstats.com/bball. (Final games are here. Games from the previous day are here.)
This is something I put together a couple years ago, and I've dusted it off for the tournament. The model's approach is very similar to my football model. Basketball is a much simpler sport, though. There's no field position, down, or distance in basketball. Aside from possession, score and time remaining are really the only significant statistical factors.
Site News: Welcome John Morgan
John, formerly of one of SB Nation's best NFL blogs Field Gulls, has agreed to come onboard Advanced NFL Stats. I've been a fan of John's for a couple years and I'm looking forward to his contributions. He'll be initially chronicling some of the most exciting games of the past season in the eyes of WP and Excitement Index (the EI number on all the WP graphs).
Here are couple comments from John's farewell from Field Gulls:
John, the particular flavor of your writing sucked me in. I wouldn’t know half of what I know about the game or current football events without ya.
John's writing has been inspirational. I have learned so much about my favorite team from this man, so much about football. Reading his posts on here is such a pleasure because of the quality of the language, writing, and well supported evidence he puts up.
So give John a warm welcome. We're lucky to have him.